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Gotta love this solution for 306H on the GFS: The entire state of Tennessee is colder then the entire state of Wisconsin.

Congrats BNA

Reggie says … Congrats, like, Wakefield, NH?

Okay where is the Grinch? Shouldn't it be raining and 55˚ right about now?

Would you prefer the classic Tip write-the-whole-analysis-in-the-title thread title?

I think this is going to have an outsized impact. By the time you get the truck drivers to the vehicles and into position on a day like today there's so much traffic that they can't get across their routes, CF bumps through and road freezes up, drivers get stuck on a small incline, backs up behind that. Not saying that has happened yet but traffic seems awful. Just bad timing for snow on a day everyone is trying to get out of town or shop for the holidays; doesn't take much to gridlock everything.

NAM GONE WILD! WARNING SNOWS FOR MUCH OF BOS CWA!

Nice little OES band hitting BOS and surrounding areas. -SN in Cambridge sticking to unpaved things. Museum of Science webcam shows visibility ~1 mile.

Congrats Nova Scotia

Me, watching models update.

December 2014 was subpar. Wet, warm, snow-free (0.3 at BOS, 1.5 at ORH) and the Christmas torch. That winter got a little better I guess.

It wasn't until it was in NAM range that the models even picked up on the first of those storms … that was on the 24th. 10 years ago and I still remember seeing that first monster run on that Saturday.

Lowest temps were around 0Z on Feb 4 at -10˚ GFS lowest temps for KBOS: 1/28 00Z: -3˚ 1/28 06Z: 8˚ 1/28 12Z: 4˚ 1/28 18Z: -2˚ 1/29 00Z: -8˚ 1/29 06Z: -4˚ 1/29 12Z: -9˚ 1/29 18Z: -9˚ 1/30 00Z: -7˚ 1/30 06Z: -8˚ 1/30 12Z: -9˚ 1/30 18Z: -7˚ 1/31 00Z: 1˚ 1/31 06Z: 1˚ 1/31 12Z: 0˚ 1/31 18Z: -1˚ 2/1 00Z: 0˚ 2/1 06Z: -2˚ 2/1 12Z: -3˚ 2/1 18Z: -3˚ 2/2 00Z: -8˚ 2/2 06Z: -6˚ 2/2 12Z: -8˚ Beyond this the models converged on -9˚ (which was correct) although the MOS were a good deal higher. So basically the GFS had it correct for two days a week out from the event, then was wrong for two days, then got back in line.

Will there ever be a model swing as strong as last year's Valentine's Day debacle? This forum at least knew enough not to cancel school the day before once the models had swung wildly away from it.

The GFS sniffed that out … almost exactly … a week out. It didn't quite get the 59-degrees-over-31-hours temperature rise correct (underestimated, but the trend was there). The GFS actually backed off the extreme cold as the week went on (still <0 at KBOS, but not -10) but the week-out op model verified.

Gotta love the toaster bath at the end of the GFS op. Grinch comes a couple of days late this year.

It never gets too warm but the cold just disappears for the last half of the op GFS. Just cold and dreary.

Colder than pretty much anywhere in NH and VT.

Is that LES off of Champlain?

Lock of the year.

It uses up a lot of oxygen to argue about soundings at D11 but you do you.

Nice little battle with the NAM and Euro in one corner and the GFS and Canadian in the other.

Was this the same storm where in Boston it went from 18" to nothing in the last 24 hours? That was a mess.

But that last couple of seasons, whichever model predicted less snow won out.

So at 138H the 12Z models have BUF (Euro) BAF (Canadian) Flat and off NJ (ICON, GFS) Maybe Charlie Brown will kick the football right through the goalposts this year … but I doubt it!