alex

Members
  • Content Count

    3,139
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by alex

  1. I think we see a net gain. And that's usually the case with most cutters anyways, unless they really flood us with warm air. It seems that the most likely scenario is snow to a mix/dryslot to backend upslope -> net result, we gain. That's based on my abysmal knowledge of weather and about 37 seconds spent looking at models; should really go a long way to make you feel better.
  2. Lol. We are on the same boat on that river they want us rafting down
  3. They're happening again... But lighter. But at least there's something in the spot lights, ha. What's the point of having spotlights otherwise?
  4. The snowy P&C warms the heart but doesn't open glades unless it actually materializes. So if you could keep the grids as is and make sure it's in fact all snow, that'd be great! Jokes aside, it's not really meant as a criticism even though it sounds like it. I can't imagine how hard it is to capture the uncertainty and all the variables inherent to forecasting over such a long period and wide area. One day that you're bored I'd love to hear how the system actually works... It seems fascinating!
  5. It's a bit strange though that with such a high probability of rain in the AFD there is not even a mention in the P&C. The two seem completely disconnected
  6. 1.5" overnight... Better than expected
  7. Gyx doesn't make one very optimistic... Of course my P&C has no mention of rain at all but consistency is optional (sorry OceanSt) On Friday evening a developing area of low pressure will be moving over the Great Lakes region before moving into eastern Ontario or Quebec by Saturday morning. There remains significant disagreement in the ensemble low tracks with this system as a fair number of the ECWMF individual ensembles have two main clusters, one is located over the Great Lakes region whereas the other is further to the southeast offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England at 12Z Saturday. These two separate solutions then eventually converge with a mean low track almost directly over our area. The CMC ensembles generally are in decent agreement with the ECMWF in terms of timing but on average they are a little further east. Finally, the GEFS ensemble mean low locations are somewhere in between those of the ECMWF and CMC. The ultimate track of this system will have large implications on precipitation type for our area as a more westward track would favor mostly rain whereas an eastward track would favor more in the way of winter precipitation. Generally favored the more westward solution in this forecast package due to the location of the 500 mb trough which will be located across the center of the country on saturday morning and the 500 mb ridge over the Pacific northwest. This keeps the majority of the precipitation liquid, even across the north. In terms of total QPF from this system, the ECMWF ensemble mean by 06Z Sunday has a swath of around 1" of precipitation across central NH and ME with between 0.50-0.75" further to the north and south. The GEFS ensemble mean by this same time is in overall good agreement with again locally 1" or greater of QPF across central regions. Finally, the NBM is overall somewhere in the middle but still indicated the potential for locally up to around 1" of liquid equivalent precipitation for some locations. This amount of rain combined with dew points up to around 40F will likely melt much if not all of the remaining snow and ice that is on the ground in many locations.
  8. Also I’m an idiot and I always call it angel instead of diamond dust. But being northern New Hampshire, neither would surprise me
  9. I think GYX should issue a Severe Angeldusting Warning. Surprised how noticeable it is at 5/-4, usually it’s when it’s below 0
  10. Tonight could be the first subzero night in a while if the clouds don’t roll back in. Down to 5 already
  11. Finally getting some sun. The cool thing is that we've managed to hold on to some snow on the trees through this whole crappy period. Not much left on the trees at lower elevations though.
  12. One of the wider glades opened yesterday. Rough conditions but fun
  13. Increasingly large portions of bread and butter?
  14. Our daily light snow has started again. Such a weird stretch
  15. I was born in Torino, near the Alps. There are some breathtaking towns there. Courmayeur and the village of Cogne are some of my favorites. Chamonix is also really nice, on the other side. Cogne at about 5000 ft is just idyllic, surrounded by glaciers and enormous waterfalls towering over the town. Just breathtaking
  16. And 2018 for good measure
  17. These are graphs of my PWS temperature for this year and the last 2
  18. I've had some serious gripes with Cannon ski Ops before. Never in person of course, but I remember one time when it was 40 degrees at closing with a sharp cold front coming in, and they started grooming right away before the pack had a chance to freeze. They might as well have used a Zamboni, the next day was unskiable. The groomers at Bretton Woods seem much more careful.
  19. What's funny is that it's actually been in my opinion perfect winter temperatures here. Below freezing for the past 4 days, no torches, snow still hanging on the trees, daily flurries and yet no uncomfortable mornings when you wonder why you live in this tundra. Although today's high of 22 did feel strangely chilly skiing.
  20. It's from the top of the gondola!
  21. No it looks like it's always been in the clouds. There's a good 3-4" of rime
  22. Same here. Actual legit fat flakes that stack up easily, and pretty widespread. It was even a big more in Littleton than here! It's funny that this period of no weather whatsoever is turning out cloudy with daily flurries. We've managed to see no sun in a week lol
  23. Mother nature teasing us again with the nightly dusting. What a b---
  24. Keep em coming. So cool. Just overcast here, with light snow showers/flurries