Chinook

My area possibly approaching 20-24" with 36" drifts on the south side of houses.

The snow is still coming down here. I have most likely gotten 2" since I last posted. Around noon, the winds were really going and you couldn't see down the street. It is still decently windy.

my world is pretty white. I got a depth of 17" with some wind gusts of 25mph or more shaking the trees, which are caked in snow

The 3-km NAM still has 2.05" of QPF for me, and that's from 00z, not that long ago, so that would be roughly 20" from 5:00PM onward-- and I've only gotten about 2+ inches since 5:00PM.

I have gotten about 3" - 3.5" of snow. There are some moderate values on radar, kind of medium dendrites. I guess it is something. Earlier this week, I would have assumed I would have 10 or 15" by this time in the day. this better actually happen!!!

possible tornado near Quanah, TX

The snowfall is not too impressive yet for most of the area. For me, the snow is just above the grass

tornado-warned storm near Paducah, TX

Because of daylight savings time, there will no snow between 2:00 AM and 3:00 AM.

Nazareth TX (southwest of Amarillo) - warning is indicated a confirmed tornado

I got my first flakes at about 11:50 AM start of storm

Mostly, you don't want Jim Cantore to come to your town, because if he does, a hurricane will blow down your house.

That's so weird. I can't get Radarscope to switch to FTG radar data either. The data is definitely out there, as it is loading on GRLevel3.

Now the NAM is somewhat respectable compared to the global models, in terms of higher snowfall totals. Sometimes I don't know what it takes for our premiere US regional model to actually forecast snow for the Front Range. I don't think we've had so many posts in the Mountain West discussion in 24hrs+ in .... forever. It looks like now I can say that the snow/rain will develop east of I-25 tomorrow and rotate west over the next 6 hours to fill in the entire area, as the 700mb 0C line will stay in eastern Colorado. A bunch of this rain will push north into Nebraska. The colder 700mb temperatures of -3C to -7C will be just enough to keep the precipitation as snow near I-25. I have kind of not looked at a bunch of the details with the radar/precip rate as each model had some different variations of this dynamic storm.

high precipitation supercell (non-tornado warned now)

new possible tornado east of Lubbock, TX

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far east-central New Mexico Northwest Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 900 PM CST.

latest NWS digital forecast-- when values of 26" are hard to read due to the color scheme, but you need to know... Still, probably some adjustments in the forecast to come in the next 18 hours or so. I guess there is the kind of interesting question as to how much snow affects northwest Nebraska, as opposed to rain.

A couple of the models are showing more evidence of a barrier jet now, which could provide Fort Collins with the 35mph or blizzard-level wind gusts. This is a low-level jet that's aided by stable air moving towards steep mountains. As for other instances of a barrier jet, this can happen in OR/WA coasts as the oceanic air bumps into the coast ranges, with stronger storms.

Alaska... or Denver?

Our first enhanced tornado threat in the Spring season. This is a possible pre-storm environment near Childress TX tomorrow. There is some veer-back-veer, but many indicators that supercells could be impressive. As of right now, the NAM has values of about CAPE=2000 J/kg, SRH=250 m2/s2 and deep layer shear=70kt, for perhaps the most favorable area. Storms may move towards better SRH values.

There's no way 9" will verify. The Canadian has 2.0" to 3.9" for central Larimer County, the Euro, 2.0" to 2.91", UKMET 2.0" to 3.86".

The GFS throws in so much warm air that has rain at 4800ft - 4900 ft at Greeley. The Euro/Canadian/UKMET have significant snowfall values at Greeley, though.

Did the models forget how to forecast real CAPE?

The 00z Euro still has a very significant amount of snow for the area, particularly near and east of Cheyenne. The GFS does have much more for Larimer/Boulder Counties. As for most of Wyoming to the Black Hills, there is a first storm that is happening right now. So the snow totals reflect both storm systems.