Chinook

Our area has a winter storm watch. I am wondering about this will play out time-wise. The models have a 2nd wave of snow on Tuesday (GFS has this at about 12z-18z Tuesday). Nevertheless, there is a lot to be concerned about.

By the way, I just checked the forecast PW value during the rainstorm, for Detroit. That is a value 1.45." This would be at about the general maximum for this time of year for the DTX sounding location (see SPC sounding climatology.) The average for this time of year would be 0.57."

There are some respectable tropical-storm force wind gusts to 43 kt at the place that has the temperature of 81 in this image.

The cold front and snow storm system for Sunday to possibly Tuesday looks like it could be more significant than previous runs showed. Previous runs of the Canadian showed a lot of snow, at slightly later time frames. Now the Canadian is bonkers with 1.2" of QPF for Denver. The Euro has 1.2" of QPF for the city of Denver and northwards.

Today my area was 42 degrees and breezy by late afternoon. I saw a few rain drops out of the first band of precipitation at about 1:00PM. Such things remind me of late November and December in the Midwest. Right now, Denver has 34 degrees and snow with 1/2 mile visibility, with moderate dBz values on the radar.

Last night, we had another period of wind gusts of 30-60mph. I was in Fort Collins at 10:00PM and there were some 30mph wind gusts blowing leaves all over the place. There were brief 60mph winds recorded at the west side of Fort Collins. There is a winter weather advisory for Denver for tonight and tomorrow, with a winter storm warning from the Palmer Divide down to New Mexico border. NWS forecast for Colorado Springs: The GFS and other models show another cold front and snow for WY and CO on Sunday-Monday. Our area already has a temperature departure of -2.9F for the month (Denver.)

The TDFW short-range radar showed some rotation at State Highway 121 (Sam Rayburn) , and continued to about 1.5 miles south of Fairview. The KFWS radar had this, but it was a little hard to interpret. map of area: this must be some sort of traffic monstrosity. How many roads are there??

Possible tornado near Asher, Oklahoma.

this is the official warning text

There is a new tornado watch and some storms near Fort Worth. It looks like the severe-warned storms are a result of a supercell split with left- and right-moving supercells.

This is new. I didn't see this on the NWS web page yesterday.

Some normal weather last evening changed to windy weather of 30-50mph wind gusts in the Front Range cities. For my area, the greatest gusts were in the middle of the night at about 4:00AM. Currently, DIA has the strongest gusts of the day.

18z GFS has 8" of snow and 0.91" of QPF for downtown Denver on Wednesday to Thursday. This is likely a case of the GFS being precipitation-happy in the 120hr-168hr period, but it's worth watching. 12z Euro prediction:

GFS/ECMWF have snow for Denver area on Wed night to Thu morning.

What do you think about this large sector of +2C to +3C in the north Pacific? Will there be a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska for most of the winter?

That is a large area of similarly cold temperatures in the composite. A couple of notes: the last month or so has had a strong ridge in the Southeast and Ohio Valley. I wonder if this will break down this winter or maybe it will continue to pop up and help weather disturbances affect the Upper Midwest, as opposed to Mid Atlantic or Southeast Other note: this looks like a cool snake!

Check this out. There have been some 24" snow reports at Devils Lake, ND.

Now that it has snowed in Denver and this area, we will start the winter discussion for our region. To recap: On Wednesday it was 78 degrees here, but a cold front with 30 mph wind gusts brought the temp to about 39 by evening. On Wednesday night, I saw thunder and lightning with numerous graupel bits which would normally be called 1" of snow. Then, when I got home, there was just a bit of graupel on the ground. Then, Thursday morning, my place got 2" of snow or more. Then, on Thursday evening, there were snow flurries when I was at work. So, I had to go out to my car and clear off another 1/2" of snow off my car. I was wondering if the road would be icy, but I didn't notice anything slippery. Today, things are getting back to being a somewhat normal chilly day.

Likely tornado near MKX radar

It's always amazing to me to see that storm tops can be nearly -90C in the tropics (Tropical Storm Narda)

24-hr precip may have been as much as 9-16" near and southwest of Galveston

Maybe Oklahoma City is getting a very wet August? By the way, 87mph wind report near Piedmont, OK. I have heard that there was a probable tornado near Edmond.

Tomorrow, the EHI and tornado parameters could be nearly the maximum that you might ever expect in the month August. Thunderstorms are likely across central Illinois.

Japan's radar web site shows that the eyewall has tracked over Tarama Island recently. This is close to Ishigaki. https://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/

GFS has two storms in the next few days in the Pacific. Typhoon Lekima, farther west, is expected to be 130 kt (Category 4) near Ishigakijima, Japan and also at 80 kt near the Chinese landfall point (JTWC)