roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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It is irrelevant though. When all is said and done, the strength of this Nino will be determined by the ERSST tri monthly peak. Coral Reed watch is no more relevant than the cool CDAS.
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It’s funny how you always show coral reef watch since it’s always the warmest. Unfortunately for you, it’s irrelevant since that’s not the source of the official numbers.
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No. You’ll be lucky to get one “hot” day there. Maybe Saturday?
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The CFS has actually been cooling some recently. The latest runs of the bias correction is closer to a 1.5 peak now(the blue colored lines).
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The Nino strength isn’t going as planned if we now have to use the GFS fantasy canes as a measurement of Nino strength. lol
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The SOI popped back positive today. How is that looking for the next week or so?
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Part of the problem is the very small sample size of super Nino. The other problem is the background warming that has taken place even since ‘15-‘16. Even the winter of ‘15-‘16 had a major cold shot in the NE part of the country. That alone is much different than ‘97-‘98 or ‘82-‘83. I think the warmer world makes it even tougher than it already is for the models to predict which in turn makes it harder for human forecasters because when the models go against your forecast, it makes you second guess it.
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Isn’t that similar to what happened in 1925?
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I’m guessing the very warm Atlantic waters are helping New England in recent years too.
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I was going to say, how did Maine have the hottest July on record? I wasn’t paying that close attention to that area but it couldn’t have been that hot in Maine with the pattern we had in July. Maine must have had record high dewpoints for the month or something.
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The models have just been bad all around. They keep trying to move the warmth out of 1+2 and into 3.4, probably because they have been showing a favorable pattern to warm 3.4 in the mid range all summer that never comes to fruition. I kind of feel like if 3.4 does finally start to take off that 1.2 will then cool because the warmth will move out of that area. The subsurface under 3.4 isn’t that impressive.
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I was going to ask how the Great Lakes could be that far above normal when it hasn’t even been a hot summer but then I looked closely and realized they’re using 1971-2000 as a base.
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Is the strongest WWB since early June really saying much though?
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Over the course of how many years? lol
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Usually but who knows. There’s been some decent El Niño Novembers though. It’s usually December that’s the worst but the last 3 Nina Decembers haven’t exactly been stellar either.
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It was La Niña for the last 3 years. I don’t recall much to look forward to then either except for maybe late Jan/Feb ‘21.
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Do you have the link to the OISST daily readings? Thanks.
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You were talking about the mean. I thought you were saying their model had a 2.2 peak.
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It looks like it’s around 2.9 peak on the graph.
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Coral Reef runs warmer than ERSST.
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I’ll believe all of this when I see it happen this year. We’ve been reading since Spring about how all of this will happen by June then by July and now by August.
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CDAS is showing a pretty fast drop in 1+2 recently. It’s below +3 for the first time in awhile.
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1.7C and 2.5C are worlds apart actually.
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Wouldn’t summer of 2024 for them basically be late December this year when summer starts? So I took it as they’re saying weak has the highest chance by the start of their summer which would be late December.
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Wow. They’re basically ruling out a strong Nino and saying the highest chance is for weak. Now that’s what I call going against the models and consensus. They may very well be wrong but it’s kind of refreshing to read something other than strongest El Niño ever twitter hype.
