Don’t we usually start seeing the SOI start going more negative around this time of year for a developing Nino? So far, it’s still quite positive. That could also indicate a pattern change.
Here in the eastern part of the state there was rain to start apparently from what I’ve read. So, this area kind of got screwed. I wasn’t born until July that year so I couldn’t see what was happening, I could only listen. lol
I’m not sure the preceding two winters being cold really have anything to do with it, does it? It could just be that an El Niño is typically mild where the map is mild and would look that way even if the two preceding winters were mild.
I know everyone here just seems to have mood swings with each op model run but the look on the ensembles in late February doesn’t look bad to me at all. You have Canada filled with Arctic air, a -PNA and the seasonal warming in the south as we head toward March. The ingredients are there for interesting stuff IMO.
I mean if you're in some rural white trash trailer park you might have an issue but I'm sure that's true in Illinois too. Other than that, I think he's misinformed.
Yeah. If you want sun in the winter, Arctic cold is what you need. In Michigan that’s especially true later in winter when the lakes are at their lowest temperature and or have ice cover. One of the worst things about mild winters is the seemingly constant low clouds most days.
Our below freezing streak should end on Tuesday. We've been below freezing since it dropped during the day on January 14th. We won't quite make it a full month but still not bad.
Some were saying the cold wasn’t impressive but that looks impressive to me. It might not match the warm anomalies out west with a warmer world but to downplay the cold the last three weeks isn’t being honest.
I mentioned this last winter but I'm still surprised at how little ice there was at this time last year in what was not a warm winter by any means. I mean last winter at this time had less ice than 2006-2007 which is really surprising to me considering that winter was pretty much a torch from early December until mid January.
If you're looking at it from where you live, I guess it's not great but overall it quickly brings back the -WPO so they'll be a lot of arctic air pressing into the ridge so I would say it actually looks pretty wintry for the country especially as you go north and west. I know that's not good for your area though.
I guess I didn’t actually expect that. The blocking was probably stronger in 1977 though. You can also see how the temperature in the Arctic dropped in February at the same time it warmed up significantly down here. I swear some people act like there’s palm trees growing up there today. lol
I was wondering if there’s a way to get Greenland’s average temp over a monthly period and compare to this January. There probably isn’t. This January in the US will be much warmer than 1977 because the planet is warmer and the pattern wasn’t even cold for the first half or so of the month. Look at Alaska. It was very warm in 1977 and actually will be below normal in much of the state this year.