Maestrobjwa

But that's the problem with Ninas: We need TOO MUCH luck. More luck than in other enso states (although I know statistically the last couple of neutrals have been even worse snow-wise). There's just way too much flying around in the NS all the time. Like every nina it's "Oh we need wave 1 to do this or wave 2 won't work." Or "This NS piece interfered and phased too early..or too late" all timing stuff that has dominated discussions every nina the last 10 years (and I'll bet decades before, lol). Too. Little. Space. And I'm slightly annoyed when I say "Nina so don't expect much" and somebody chimes in acting like I'm off. Like you can point out examples of "Well just got unlucky" but getting more unlucky than others ensos is what happens with every single nina not named 95-96 or Feb 2006. So all nina complaints have no business being criticized (except during specific storm threads of course) given that it remains our worst state even with the other elephant issues. That map bncho just posted...you only seem that kind of snow gap with stuff north and south during ninas. Expect less than usual with those...

I dissent I think the tempo fits just fine! In fact, a case could be made that this tempo makes the eventual POP! more effective because it's more of a walking tempo (the GIF about 97 bpm...so Andante) That is just slow enough to kinda lull ya before surprise--just like the famous movement from Haydn's "Surprise" symphony (which incidentally also goes well with this, haha) That tempo is an Andante as well which makes the surprise even better. Do it too fast and the POP loses it's distinctiveness. So...walk don't run before the POP! That's my musical case for why that tempo works and I daresay is even better!

Good ear sir

Slow, late...seems about the same result-wise, lol How many times have we said "Ah if this done this 6 hours sooner..."

One theme of this winter is things being too slow...hard to bet on faster timing

Not THAT much that's almost for certain, lol

Understood! Still found it funny though, lol But I get it

Hey @stormtracker you see what I posted here yesterday? Lol

I am

Oh dang all this time I didn't know he was a brother, lol

Might not wanna go there.

Yo @stormtracker is this somebody you know? Hahahahaha Made some weird brown stuff on the ice rink...but the umbrella got me, lol (Forgive me if this is close to political but it was too good not to share)

Possibly...but we see we can still snow when it starts at 34 degrees if it's heavy enough.. I mean the coastal gets going sooner we would've had a foot even in a marginal setup. Have a strong storm like that in a Niño where it's in a better spot a boom. So I don't think we're that far gone yet. (at least I hope not!) All it takes is a window a la 2016. And even in 2018-19 there was ample cold in January where the rest of y'all south of me got a foot! (Ack, lol)

Yeah not the only path...but historically aside from the once in a generation 1996 (and 2006 for a MECS), haven't the rest of the top 10 snows come during Niños?

Oops! Somebody here responded to the wrong one then--because the most recent post before mine was made in here, lol

Confident that it's our best chance, yes. Confident it's definitely gonna happen? Nobody can be, lol But as I stated above...easing PDO, maybe more blocking, better chance? We shall see...

Absolutely agree. We've seen the ways a niño can fail. But obviously, no other enso state is gonna work for a MECS or HECS anymore so it's all we got, lol

I never said it was a given. I'm just saying we need to get one next year or else we will be waiting for awhile longer. @EastCoast NPZ Yes I'm aware. But I'm hoping an easing of the PDO and Chill's theory of blocking episodes coming around after a long hiatus has some merit. And again, nothing is guaranteed. But no matter what, a strong enough Niño still gives us our best chance of all the enso states, so we root for it. @CAPE Psu said something a few weeks ago about early indications of east based, but I don't know where he saw that.

Nobody goes in here, lolol

So let me tell ya...I had assumed all this time that that's what it meant, BUT since I see it abbreviated here with capital letters sometimes, I wanted to make sure there wasn't a technical term I was missing, haha

What does POS stand for?

Someone else in the house had the 6:30 news on healined by the snow...I was just starting to feel a little better too dang it. This miss ruined the whole dang day. All time Nina fail--next time anybody asks why I complain about ninas I'll just say February 2026. We (Baltimore) are the only ones between NC and Boston that haven't gotten a foot in 11 years and nobody should blame us for complaining from now until the next one. Baaa snowbug. P.S. No one else is in the Panic Room. If there's nobody there there's no catharsis, lol

Yep. So we need this one to deliver...neutrals don't seem to work anymore either (unless the PDO has been the issue...that SEEMS to finally be relaxing after 8-9 years of wreaking havoc)

Alright somebody give me some good news about the Niño next year. @psuhoffman where did you see early indications of it being east-based? I will say this: If we do not get a MECS or HECS next year, we are probably waiting until the end of the decade when the next niño comes unless we can get a double-dip, no?

Kvetch? Lol