Maestrobjwa
-
Posts
11,022 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
-
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Maestrobjwa replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
A met in my sub had an idea: -
Hm...so are we kinda looking at a ceiling of the moisture potential with this one in general? And secondly...how unusual is this?
-
But if it follows other guidance...watch it be dry at the surface, lol
-
Sounds like this is a good study for ya
-
Came back to find this, hahaha
-
Nothing is ever guaranteed. I'm just saying I don't know if it'll be the usual Nina February monster SE ridge--because with that you have ZERO chance. Better to have A chance
-
A couple weeks ago I woulda spit at that idea. But this time around I'm wondering if we have a chance with the MJO in a favorable phase as well as a -AO...
-
Now see...I get storm 1 failing--it's messy. But c'mon man I hope we can get something off off storm 2. If we get zilch from both, that will be annoying even with lowered expectations!
-
Right--very few big hits come outside of the weekend...I don't know why--it just doesn't seem to work, lol
-
I find that our beloved forum is deaf to these warnings despite them being absolutely spot on (I guess it's not wanting to acknowledge fail probability when the models seem to "lock in"). We need to view this like it's still in fantasy range! I feel like wave 2 would be simpler...
-
Fwiw 18z ICON did that too and I wondered about that as a possible outcome. And we could say GFS kinda came north with the low passage too, right?
-
That is becoming a question I ask when we see models spit out these kind solutions: Like in court..."Is there precedent?"
-
That was the first one I thought of. I remember watching the rain hitting the window quickly turning into snow...Commutagedon! (can't remember exactly what happened in the forecasting that made that sneak up on people)
-
Baltimoreans are people too
-
I've learned over time to never bet on NS junk to behave in a nina
-
Though not without the occasional meltdown like the great folks fail of last February!
-
Side note...Had no idea Cranky onTwitter had rebranded himself to ContentWeatherGuy a few years ago, lolol
-
And then you have what is unresolved about the late-week storm before it. Gotta imagine we won't know about this one until we get closer to that one!
-
I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I will say that kicker is a more layman-friendly term...Like to me it's makes sense because I can visualize what it's doing and why we need it to not do that/do much less of it.
-
Hm...with this kind of setup it feels like lock in time is still 4 days away, lol
-
Do you have a side by side of this with the 6z Euro? (Trying to see if those features you pointed out trended better and I don't have the pretty maps, lol)
-
If I had to guess the word uncertainty will be used no less than 5 times (as it should)
-
Well at least it had some semblance of something as opposed to dry...I'll take that as a step forward, lol
-
Sweet mercy. But until others are on board and it's like...Wednesday it's hard to buy it.
-
Alright y'all stare at the run for 5 more mins then throw it out for your own sanity
