Maestrobjwa

Man cut it out...ya got a foot in January and are probably above average. Acting like this winter was as bad as 2017 or 2011-12 or something...smh

Ah, the Ravens...free agency couldn't have started off any worse!! I mean, the Mosley deal from the Jets was completely ridiculous (we woulda had to pay him 19 mil a year to beat that!) DeCosta already has a tough task ahead...mercy (We don't have many recognizable faces left now, lol)

The whole winter has been progressive...lol So weird how hard it's been for stuff to amplify up the coast this winter (other than the rain nor'easter in December!)

Oh stop!!! Lol Now see, after the busted expectations this year...everytime someone throws out a comparison to something epic, I wanna throw something, lol (I know, I know doesn't mean anything, but still!)

And see, this here...is kinda where I'm at too. I get that LR cannot be perfect, but...this year, it seemed like they were useless for even getting a HINT of the direction things were going! (maybe I'm wrong about that--but it certainly felt like we were flying blind most of the season. Felt like everybody was confused about everything, lol)

Because of last year's first day of spring snow...and evidence of one more punch of cold in the LR, ain't nobody should be completely shutting the blinds yet, lol

And those two things were perfectly on display last year (and the year before, really!). If ya want a crash course on why ninas don't work...look no further than last year, lol The things we rely on to give us even a 50/50 chance simply aren't there often enough!

Disregard...lol It was a silly curiosity of a very minuscule sample size (that thing I posted about about BWI having 2+ inches of snow in November, 0 inches of snow in Dec, 5 inches in January...wondering if that would turn into 33 inches in February like it did the last two times that happened, lolol Never was 100% serious...just a silly curiousity about whether it would repeat--no dice, haha)

First of all...I am actually considering any years above 20" a good year because that's the BWI average. So my analysis of the snowfall record is based on that. We went longer than 4 years without surpassing 20" only 4 times in our history. Sure could we see it again? Yeah.....but I always thought that the less something has happened, the less likely it is. But that's probably more feeling than numerical...so I take that back. So that's what I was looking at...and I saw three times on the record we had to wait longer than 4 years to eclipse that mark. So sure...we could go on an unfortunate run like the early-mid 70s.....just hasn't happened often.Since 1993, we've had a foot of snowfall at once every 3-4 years until we got to 2014 and it was back-to-back-back. Maybe that broke the trend...who knows? It could happen that it goes bad again...Or, it could be like other modoki ninos that have gone two years and been better the second year. And frankly I resent your assumption I'm saying this to make myself feel better. Don't make it personal and assume my psychology. Remember I had LOW expectations going into this winter and ya told me ya thought it was gonna be good! Sure I was wondering if whether the pattern of 1978-79 would repeat itself this year...It didn't and that's okay...If it don't happen next year, it don't happen. I won't trust anything but mod/strong modoki...so if that don't show up next year...ain't trustin' it, lol And the funny thing is..."2-3 good winters per decade" fits in pretty well with the "every 3-4 years" narrative, hahaha All that being said...perhaps it is wrong of me to say "we oughta be due"....because that's too definitive of a statement and not always the case. But I will stick to mentioning what has or hasn't happened often. Whether a certain thing means anything or not...fun to speculate, but no guarantees. And I didn't ignore your numbers earlier...sorry my statement made it look like that (I get that). Shoulda acknowledged/referenced those first.

That's all you got out of that? Smh Upon closer inspection we oughta feel a bit better knowing that sometimes the good/great, above average winters came every 3-4 years...and next winter will indeed be 4 years! So IF recent history follows that pattern, we oughta be due. And also we will still have low solar, it seems...In our history, either just before or just after a solar minimum, we can cash in (not 100 percent, but seemed to have more good winters overall. @psuhoffman can correct me if I'm wrong on that, lol)

Ya can't really say "it doesn't matter anymore" just because things didn't go as planned this year. It was a weak nino that wasn't strong enough to not get disrupted by other influences...I'd be willing to bet this isn't the first time that's happened! (Weak Niños average a little over 15" at BWI)

And don't forget the double-barrel low...

Oh stop...I hope you ain't lookin' at that right, lol (and I'd hope we'd have more leeway with that this time with the antecedent airmass...)

Oh wow really? That's awesome! (I know I've read that it was a total surprise)

Palm Sunday blizzard...I'd love to talk to someone who was alive and old enough to remember that--wow!!

I think it's a bit further south than that!

Nope--ya don't want that. Because since 1966, strong ninos have only given a HECS every other time. So, since 2016 gave a HECS, the next super nino could be a bust if that trend continues! (We have literally gone: 1965/66 HECS, 1972/73 bust, 1982/83 HECS, 1997/98 bust 2015/16 HECS! Which might mean...lol)

Switching gears a bit... For those like me who like the big hits...there's an odd trend that has been running since 1993: Every 3-4 years, we get a storm of at least 11-12" snowfall: 1993: March 1996: Well, ya know...lol 2000: January storm 2003: PDII 2006: 2009/10: Need I say more?Lol 2014: 14" inch snowfall in Feb. 2015: 2016: Blizzard in January So...If we do not manage fluke 11"+ storm in the next couple of weeks, the trend would suggest that we could be due next year (we shall see...2014-2016 was an odd run, so if the trend breaks maybe we can blame that, lolol)

Model watching with forward time is awful...Makes me detest the early daylight savings start time even more, lol

We've got a whole lotta nothin' A whole lotta nothin' we have!

@stormtracker Get him, lol

Man if nothing else...I wanna get to 20.1" on the year. That is the normal (average) for BWI...and dang it we are so close. Only need 2.2 inches...so this map, verbatim, might be close to doing the trick, lol

Hey @North Balti Zen @nw baltimore wx @BaltimoreWxGuy Let's all meet in the northwest corner of the city, lololol How Baltimore gets the tiniest corner here is hilarious!

Now if the Euro looks like those that'll be even funnier, lol

What the hay? I KNOW you must be referring to just March events, right?