Maestrobjwa

And another thing...Was 2009-10 the last time we had a moderate Niño? If so, those must be really rare...

A painful sight! Can't get it to do this during winter for...how many years now? 10? Lol Hope this is just on a decade cycle or something...because then you'd hope we'd be due!

I mean...how long is "awhile"? We had a neutral in 2014-15 didn't we?

Probably one of the most pleasant first day of summers we've had in a long time...almost perfect weather outside!

Man, looking back at that old thread during the derecho...I'm seeing how many great knowledgeable posters we've managed to chase away from this forum, smh Immaturity, "losing our crap" etc...and I'm guessing most of it happens during the winter. It's a shame, really...I'm already aiming to be better (I will be) because my own display was absolutely awful last year, and I feel bad for the part I played. (Wonder if a whole new forum needs to be made where the moding can be super strict and the knowledgeable posters don't have to be bombarded with idiocy, lol Guess that would be kinda hard to do, though...)

That...was frickin' AWESOME!!! Thanks for sharing that! Man, how unpredictable severe can be around here. But I will never forget what that looked like outside my bathroom window (was literally taking a shower when I post power, lol) The wind blowing the sheets of heavy rain down the street...felt like a 20-minute hurricane, loop (basically was!) And then the absolute tree carnage the next day...mercy! That was certainly one for the books!

So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)

Would love to see a forecast moving toward that elusive pit of gold that is a moderate Niño...Ya know, is is possible to like...save ourselves the seasonal angst and just predict what the winter will look like based on past El nino/la nina/neutral histories? I mean the only true scenario that can go one way or the other is a neutral, right? The rest seem predictable: Weak El Nino: basically will look like what we saw last winter: some snow, but just about "average"--no "big blows" per se, nice scenery snow but nothing major. Mod El Niño: Game on. Strong El Niño: Either one big blizzard or nothing at all. Neutral: Keep tracking because this can be boom or bust. La Niña: Forget it. Don't look at models, forecasts, etc...move to ocean city and New Jersey and further north in order to shovel, lol I mean...is there any point in considering any other factor once we know what the ENSO is gonna be?

Any particular reason we don't see hail that often here in the city?

Wow so this is what a Colorado summer feels like? Sounds awesome!

I'm telling ya--I haven't known what season it is! Lol (If it weren't for the sun angle heating up the cars, you'd forget it was June!)

Me neither...In times where ya think monthly or at least weekly seasonal forecasting should be getting better...why does it feel like it got worse last winter? I mean I don't believe anything those models spit out now--they proved themselves absolutely clueless, lol

So do we have any more threat of storms today?

Ya didn't get enough over the 365+ days of pure soakage we just went through? Lol

So uh...I'd love for this year not to end up in the top 5 wettest years again...all of those years were followed by average snow (like last winter) to below average snow...no 20+ inch totals on that list (last winter fell right into line, smh). Really been an incredible run of rain we've been on!

Well that's part of the plan, actually...lol Hence the term rebuilding! I always refer to the Astros...I would be willing to bet they still looked awful the first two or three years of that rebuild before things finally took shape! (and now here we are with people at the helm who were apart of that epic rebuild! Go Elias!)

To you as well! The Lord is risen indeed!

Dang they can get snow AND hail? Wow--would love to have that climate here!!

I just don't understand...How could a brand new model be so screwed up? Lol

https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle Seems to be a good article on the predicted upcoming solar activity...Now, I don't know much about the correlation with our snowier winters, but--I like this sentence, lol "The current solar cycle, Cycle 24, is declining and predicted to reach solar minimum - the period when the Sun is least active - late in 2019 or 2020." Well that would fit in quite nicely with next winter wouldn't it? (they also mentioned that the entire cycle would be weaker similar to this one we're coming out of) If there be any correlation at all...c'mon mod nino!!! Haha

Seriously what is the deal with this thing? Lol What did somebody screw up in designing it?

Hey check this out...Found this in the snow records...April 1884...8 inches recorded in April, lol (and I know that can't all be hail!) By far the highest April snow total on record. Gotta believe this was because of the famous Krakatoa eruption the year before! (That must've really been something...wow!) Edit: It was the 2nd highest April snowfall, not the highest!

Yes--I kinda jumbled two things together here: One "pattern" I mentioned was the wet Fall numbers depicted in JB2's chart I posted. The other was my own observation of the totals of the winters preceded by these years... Now interestingly, there is some overlap with the top 3 wettest years here and the top 3 wettest Falls in the other chart. And now this winter makes it the 4th time such an overlap occured. So maybe statistically it doesn't mean much...but I was certainly a bit concerned about the trend repeating itself this winter...and lo and behold, it did, lol Can't we concludr, then...that so far in recorded history, years that were wet like these 5 (6 including this year) have never resulted in above average snow? (and weren't 2003-04 and 1979-80 also weak niños?) Doesn't make it impossible, but...if it ain't happened yet, hard for me to expect a different result the next time we have an extremely wet year, lol

I take it you are well-versed in statistics (do you teach that as well? Either way, your annoyance last time makes more sense, lol). Guess I have a less-than-rational logic when a particular trend (like the top 5 wet years having sub 20" winters) has not been broken. Always feels safer to bet on it repeating! But that's feeling and not statistics, I suppose...lol (you see such logic used on sports broadcasts all the time! "90% of the time a team does this, this happens")

Welp, with over 18" Sept-Nov, this pattern turned out to hold true...I was always a bit concerned about how much rain we got last year; my concern was that the top 5 wettest years to that point were all followed by below average (20.1") of snow at BWI!