Maestrobjwa

Ugh...Today's Nor'easter is a gut punch...because you know it's coming this winter (if we get a storm like this) This is where Philly/NJ and north have it really good in Ninas! I'm already dreading it...eh, just gotta take the punches and stagger on (and not listen to weather news during the event)

Man IF/when we get a heavy snow again, if I hear one complaint about 20 vs 30 inches or so help me, lol

So...when do these weeklies get thrown in the trash heap? Lol I mean seriously, these things look absolutely useless to me (a more experienced mind can correct me here)...I mean are they just used to try and sniff out very general trends, or?

Can't remember hearing thunder this late in October...but perhaps I just never noticed, lol

Woooowee Quite a deluge moving through here now! Cats and dogs

You know it won't...do things EVER track a little closer in a Nina? Lol

So tell me again why predicting mediocrity this winter is unreasonable? Lol This is typical nina!

I actually feel unusually good after this loss...why? 1) This team will be better served by a loss heading into the bye week than a win. We got 5 straight, now we needed to be knocked down a peg or two so that we don't peak too soon. 2) History! In 2012, Week 7 (same week)...we got our butts kicked 43-13 by the Texans before we headed into a Week 8 bye! We all know what happened that season *I see other paralells...In 2012 we were hit hard with injuries that year too (like Suggs tearing his Achilles that summer), the defense looked atrocious (especially in the first half of the season...sheesh), and we had a few miracle wins. (Like winning 9-6 on FGs vs. KC, and barely winning on a DAL missed FG, and of course 4th and 29 later on) So...you just never know!

Kinda where I'm at. Hoping for at least some legit cold and a few scenery WWA events (can we get a couple 2 inchers? Lol) if we can manage it. That actually wouldn't be terrible for a nina

It kinda has...it happened last year, 2017-18, 2016-17....(list other la ninas not named 95/96 here).

Who said anything about everytime? I'm under no such delusion. I'd be happy with intervals we got that between 1982-83 and 2015-+16. We'd go 3-4 years, then get a 20 inch winter--and in between that was kinda mediocre. That's fine--it's what my generation grew up with--and thus it's what I'd come to expect out of this region. But this stretch we're in now goes beyond that, and is the longest since the 70s. Now maybe this will even out I don't know...but with all the climate talk I'm not so sure. So in summary...this is a longer interval than some of us born post 70s have seen in our lifetime. (I think between 1987-1993 may have been about this long)

Wider shot here. I read this as saying that 70% of la ninas have below normal snow, and 60% were warmer than normal.

What's the rub on him?

Now someone explain to me...how the "It's only October" response works when folks start writing off this winter...when the la nina statistics look like this: (this is from the last 10 la ninas) I mean...isn't this like a slam dunk seasonal forecast given that only one aberration is 95/96?...I mean ya barely have to track because you know what it's gonna look like pretty much, lol Now the other ENSO states seem to be less predictable around here...

This thread still on? Lol

And foliage updates?

I know, lol

I'm guessing you're not a Lamar fan? Lol Hey as bad as the fumble was--we don't win the game without him. Dude came back a la Rodgers/Brady fashion. When he makes mistakes he has a way of just shaking it off moving on!

That's would be a textbook nina, wouldn't it...actually 2017-18 verbatim, imo. We had a cold December with a couple light events...then the unfortunately missed bomb cyclone in early Jan...warmish February (that somehow managed a light event towards the end of the month--just a fee days of upper 60s/lower 70s). We ain't gonna talk about March (I still have PTSD from the that stupid GL low, lol)

How about out in CC/Upperco? (Elevation help? Lol)

Ya know, I'd settle for a 2017-18 la nina...at least we got above median that year, lol (It was just through a lot of nuisance-level scenery events)

Having 2011-12 again would doubly suck since we literally just had that winter before last!

Are ninas usually that warm, though?

Btw today's questions were legit "how did that happen" questions. I get because of my history how they may have sounded like gloom and doom (although that was the wrong interpretation)...but I really did wanna know how the cold air got trapped on the other side of the globe...was just curious. I mean we CAN analyze what's already happened, right?

I'm not "on the edge" though. If anything I got further away from that edge after last year didn't work out. I get it...we don't know what's gonna happen yet. But I disagree that we can't speculate at what we've been seeing. I remember @psuhoffmansaying last winter essentially that "we'd better hope this doesn't become a problem" and his several posts of "How is this not cold enough???". And did climate not come up in the conversation last winter as well? I mean I'm basing a lot of this just from what I've heard from some of y'all on here!! (particularly the better minds). So like...did I misinterpret all that? Lol BUT...on the other hand I get it...I was a lot of gloom and doom last winter. I tend to focus on the negative possibilities to prepare myself in case it happens. But you're right...it ain't happened yet. But with what we've seen the last few years it's hard not to go there...been a rough stretch. But I'll try to do better...