Maestrobjwa

Now hang on...if this still ends up reaching a Cat 4...what hype would be faded? Has that not been the forecast? As @40/70 Benchmark alluded to...even intensification at the rate of the last several hours would still put us there!

Which would be exactly as forecast...which means it won't matter too much if we got there steadily or quickly!

Is it just me or do we get way too OCD about a hurricane's appearance sometimes?

Very true...I just think we need to show a little more grace in here (particularly to those who aren't intentionally trying to be unscientific)

Yeah but you were kinda harsh (I mean I know you're not known for softness, lol) It was just a mistake

I have an issue with the term "overhyped"...because it can't be hype if the worst is a legit possibility. If it doesn't happen, not anybody's fault for over-selling!

And wasn't strengthening right before landfall a theme last year too?

Dang! Of all the times for this to happen!

Not in Pokémon land...wind and flying type attacks are one in the same

And of course water beats Ground...so it didn't have a chance against the Flying/Water type that is Ida! Only the higher mountains, a Rock type, could've dented it! (this weather lecture brought to you by chief meteorologist Castform) P.S. Being unfamiliar with the generations after Black/White...I didn't even know what your avatar was, lol So...Raboot? Haha

Cuba used LAND ATTACK! It's not very effective...

I was gonna say...unlike some of the other long-trackers...not like they have a ton of time to wait!

Now see I thought the acronym was for polar vortex...but I assumed it meant something else here, lol

Too much sugar in the golf, obviously

I don't know much about tropical, but...I can't imagine there's a definitive answer for that right now. Just gotta watch and wait!

Of course this is just a model run, but my goodness...to hit that same area again would just be cruel. Like why that particular spot?? I mean it's like there's a giant hurricane magnet at Port Charles, smh

Interestingly enough...I'm not fretting so much about this winter in particular (kinda already written it off since it's a nina, lol)...It's the winters AFTER it that I'm more worried about. I just hope the 75% doesn't turn into 80 or 85% or worse...I can live with 75% because that's what we've kinda known--that translates to every 3-4 winters!

Tbh I do hope that's all it is...what worries me is the warming. The PAC jet has never been this warm this many years in a row, correct? What if that's the one factor (or if there are others) that's different than the snowless periods of the past? We don't know that... And again...how do we know this period that stinks isn't different from the other ones over the years? We got warming and maybe a climate we've never had in recorded history. Can we really know this isn't a permanent state? I've lived through our sucky periods...but being just 30, none of them have been this long (at least for "bigger" snow). We'd go 3-4 years...then we'd see a bigger event again. I'm used to that....this? Not so much. Particularly...given the unprecedented background state we might be in. We're working on 7 years (in Baltimore, anyway). And it's a Nina so it might end up going another year. Even the 70s corrected themselves after 7 years...but what if today is different: we got this PAC jet and Hadley cells and other crap I keep hearing about the last 5-6 winters. Can we really know this time isn't different, again, given the climate? Given that...why is it illogical for me to wonder if this period of suck is different from the rest? I'm just going off of what some of you and other Mets have been saying about the "maybes" of a changing climate!!! @psuhoffman was the one indicating that things might be different last winter (the "It can't even get cold enough with THIS setup?? C'mon!" posts). Unless I misread it...hearing that and Hadely and the PAC...is what kinda made me start giving up on bigger snows because the background state might be different from before... I'd like to hear an alternative scenario about how this isn't a concern...but as PSU said, it is chaos and we really can't know for sure.

What?

And if that's the case...it's hard to imagine there being any good changes. Like...unless the warming suddenly changes a previously unproductive ENSO state like a Nina to something that can work, OR if the warming enhances a nino's positive effects on snow (kinda hard to believe), how can this go anyway but bad? (Seriously I'd like to know a scenario that could still work) And if it gets to the point where our climo becomes like the south...I'm not sure what the point of following things is. If the best we can manage is what we've gotten 2 of the last 3 years...and that even somewhat deep snow is no longer possible...why follow? I mean I get that some do it for the fun of it (but if you love snow I don't know how it doesn't make ya miserable, lol) But snow is what brought me to this in the first place, actually...8 I started a bit of a 5-phases process over this potential already. As I shoveled the few inches of snow we got back once back in Feb, I was sad lamenting that this may be as good as it gets now. I'm gonna miss having the occasional chance of a winter storm warning. Yes, scenery snows have their value (my appreciation grows looking at this reality)...but I'm gonna miss getting even 6-10 inches...as well as the less often (but still used to be every few years) 12"+. There's no way to dress it up. Guess we gotta wait and see...but I'm preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

Oof...makes my lament look tame! (Insert "That's rough buddy" meme)

These showers from Henri?

To this day I'm still kinda ticked I missed out on it...I mean JUST missed! A 4 minute drive to the bank...and it happened--but I couldn't feel it because I was driving, smh. Missed out on that memory! May not have something like that again...

I remember being quite disappointed because I didn't feel it since I was driving...(still kinda am...rare event! That was really something else!)

That is very true! A simple yet enlightening point...