Maestrobjwa

Man we haven't had a positive analog in years, lol Anybody ever notice that the last 4-5 years the only analogs discussed are bad/mediocre years? Would like a good analog for a change...13-14 would be nice

Would be nice to have another go at it...now if we get it for a second winter in a row and it still doesn't work? Sheesh (but I guess even blocking still needs a good cold source!)

And that's the problem...folks think I'm jumping off a cliff with the idea that things may be broken for snow chances, but until I see us have an above average winter again, I don't think I'll be convinced that they're not. This is not the 70s...and can we really say we've had this background state before? I'm telling ya...something might be going on.

Nah I think he's referring to the other one (2015-16). Things ain't been right since!

CV?

So let's look at how those winters turned out for snow overall, and how those Januarys' looked for snow: 2018-19: 18.3" Jan: 7.9" 2003-04: 18.3" Jan: 8.4" 2001-02: 2.3" Jan: T 2000-01: 8.7" Jan: 3.7" 1998-99: 15.2" Jan: 4.0" 1997-98: 3.2" Jan: 0.7" 1987-88: 20.4" Jan: 13.7" 1968-69: 18.6" Jan: 0.1" 1960-61: 46.5" Jan: 14.3" So do SSWs have any correlation? I'd like to see a full list of winters that had them in January or February as well. But for the December ones it's kinda hard to tell...but no blockbusters others than 60-61 (that epic decade for snow, lol)

Thanks! Yeah just wanted to try and get an idea...(because every year by the time I think of it's the peak is already past, lol). A met on Twitter suggested that the second/third week of October would be the peak...anybody have any thoughts on that?

A question: If you said it took a leap during THAT super nino...does it stand to reason that it took another leap during the 2015-16 super niño? Because let me tell ya...feels like that year broke something, lol

Anybody gonna start a foliage thread? Trying to pick just the right time to drive up to Friendly Farms (usually our family's autumn drive!)

Knowing that wretched climate they'll probably flood and/or mudslide....sheesh. I hope the in between seasons are worth it!!

But wait...didn't last year kinda reverse that? Remember how November torched? Lol

I mean...aren't la ninas usually colder on the front end anyway?

Translation? Lol

That is, assuming those still work, lol Certainly didn't last year!!

Nah I'm gonna bet the corridors probably hits it in December...ninas do tend to be colder on the front end, lol

I'm legit tempted to do this...lol Moderators likely wouldn't allow though!

I wouldn't say "cancel" as in a 2019-20 redux...just canceling for getting that elusive verified WSW, and the usual Nina heartbreakers northeast (Miller B city) and Midwest...and southeast, lol We could still get some good scenery snow...and eek out enough to get near median...but that's the most we get out of ninas. All else is the snowhole, typically. Listen I'm just going off of 2016-17 & 2017-18 where we saw this. And last year kinda the same (note the Miller B we got just the edge of). Chaos can happen, but it rarely does in a Nina, lol The other ENSO states at least have more possibilities, though the chaos makes NO guarantees.

Old Farmer's Almanac prediction actually sounds like a good Nina prediciton...cold and dry here, cold and snowy Midwest & Northeast. Folks say there's no magic formula, but of all the ENSO states...are ninas not the most predictable? I'm still waiting for someone to give me one example other than 95/96 where a Nina didn't do exactly as stated above...I don't understand why past ninas aren't reliable indicators of future ones. The other ENSO states vary--I get that--but ninas seem to be the most consistent in not getting us much snow. The 3 ninas we've had since 2016 have all behaved in a similar way (albeit last winter it was a bit warmer overall) Looking ahead...I'd like to get another shot at it next year to see where the ENSO is...because this year might be toast--although I wouldn't be surprised if we trip into median snowfall (which I'll certainly take over a shutout) a la 2017-18. But as always the snow hole is gonna be tough to watch...but thus ninas go.

Don't even bring that year up...lol Raging +AO a la 2019-20! Ack

I daresay this one hurts more...you can committee RBs...not so much star corners

Veey heavy downpour here! A few rumbles of thunder as well

Woo!!! Great shot!!

Particularly for the propensity to strengthen at landfall that's been the theme the last couple of years!

So ya wonder if this one tapers a bit for this winter?...

Again, that was the weirdest "Pure Imagination" I've ever heard...Willy Wonka went techno (or whatever you call that genre, lol)