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Maestrobjwa

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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa

  1. I think the GFS saves it's most whacked out solutions for Saturday 18z and 0z, lol
  2. Patience bro...I do think this week has been kinda tough on all of us.
  3. @Always in Zugzwang Ya ever seen this?
  4. Hey stop getting on here during a Beethoven concert! How dare ya....
  5. Boundary seems to have a little more confluence over top...still too warm this run but a little further south with the boundary, it appears.
  6. Nah I was referring to @Rjay posting the snow here, lol
  7. @stormtracker What beith this thing you've brought upon this subforum???
  8. Just why man, lol You cometh to torture and rub it in, don't ye?...
  9. I honestly don't know what questions to ask and not ask anymore (or if there's a limit). But I'm starting not to care aboru whatever the rule is...if I wanna know what happened on a particular model run, dang it I'm askin'! Like when @WinterWxLuvrhighlighted the vorts the other day? Very helpful! At least I know WHY the storm went the way it did, and how that vort was getting in the way. Was I angry at that vort (or the "tail" per se)? Absolutely! But at least I Iearned something about WHY the modeled solution was happening. Now tell me...was it wrong to ask that question? Too specific? Is it wrong to wanna know what's muckin' it up, and what might make a solution better/give us a better chance? All of the discussion this week helped me reach the conclusion that this was a long shot and I kinda tuned it out by lime Wednesday. But NOW...I know that any setup like this without some good blocking, and in a progressive pattern, is a long shot that probably won't happen outside a big fluke. And now I also am learning why more of a gradient pattern has somewhat better (but not guaranteed) chance of working in a pattern like this. None would I learn without asking.
  10. I'm not looking for 100% probabilities, though...I think ya got that part wrong. I watch model runs like sports: A good model run is like when your team scores a touchdown. A bad one is like when your team throws a pick-6 or something. I feel good or bad about a run accordingly. And just like you try to discuss and figure out how your team can make a comeback, why is it any different, then...to do the same with model runs?
  11. Now hang on...this part here simply isn't true. I'm not looking for bs on here--just a better idea of what might happen, what we need to see for a better chance, and what went wrong in a particular scenario depicted on a model run. Not looking for anybody to sugar-coat anything. I have no idea of "iteration of the same general question" Like...when? I can understand last year--and I've tried to keep that in mind: don't ask hyper specifics. But this year? This past storm I did nothing but ask "What needs to happen here"? Not whether it absolutely will. I look for positive trends just like everybody else. Like who here doesn't? Lol So forgive me if I don't know the rules And dang it of course everybody would LIKE to know what's going to happen, even though we know weather is gonna weather. There's much I still don't understand and I'm trying to learn how stuff works. But yet where do ya learn...ain't no other forum that talks about any of this, and it ain't like there's a bunch of online lectures (if it is tell me). Now as for the other...yes I do get miserable when things don't turn out well--absolutely. But you cannot tell me I'm the only one here that does...are you kidding?
  12. Not sure that boundary gets pushed far enough south...and the GFS is doing nothing of the kind. This winter if the GFS ain't doin' it it ain't happenin', lol
  13. Listen I'm learnin', alright? Ya kinda called me out on that last year and I heard ya...just taking a bit and I'm learning with some experience I'm slowly embracing the chaos of all this It's just my nature to wanna know what gives the best CHANCE of something happening, what helps and what can get in the way...what might go right, what may go wrong...why something is happening. I'm a big WHY person. So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point?
  14. Dang I didn't know we had that problem in niños too...why is it then that they tend to work a bit better? And what effect does blocking have on muting our progressive tendencies?
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