Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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Yeah but if it's a better pattern is it really the same odds? If you're in a pattern (i.e LA nina) that has more misses than hits, I'd argue your odds are better just by having less junk against ya. No guarantees...just better odds. Just like if you have a block your chances are better without one. So if ya have SS dominance your odds are better than NS...
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I ain't start that, though @WinterWxLuvrbrought it up. I was talking more about the NS dominance messing stuff up. I see that there's more to it, though.
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Hey I do the WDI around here My WDI says we are indeed due for a big one...but not sure if this month or next year...
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So the Miller B, then...is just when it's all NS and transfers at our latitude then bombs out? Rather than a sloppy phase that comes together too late? (I know there was debate over the previous NE blizzard, lol)
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Yeah but ain't it still the same ol' late/sloppy phasing though?
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Sounds about Nina!
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The ns could phase into it if the ss stream wasnt so far ahead of it so you need a bit more west dig . Was close to being a monster. Also February storms seem to not be suppressed as much typically Ah so the ss is actually ahead the ns, eh? Would be a more interesting wrinkle since all we saw last month was the reverse, lol
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Color me skeptical...feels like we've said that a lot this year with these kind of sloppy phase jobs too dependent on the NS not messing something up, smh
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I'm already ignoring the V-Day threat...lol Not saying something happens on PD weekend but it does look stromyish way out there...
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Did you mean well north? Lol
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A KU for who though? Lol
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That's been the running theme this season, lol But I'm guessing that's normal in a nina?
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HA...well that was a doosey of a euphemism, lol Hadn't heard that one!
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I always like a pattern change window better for a storm than the middle of one...I'm more interested in that period (but of course we're still a good 6-7 days away from even considering it, lol)
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We actually had a -AO/-NAO for a good part of last winter, if I'm not mistaken. Just not enough cold air (and the tpv splitting into an unfortunate position).
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Good sir remember how much runs that far out change. It's useless to get hung up on every one that far out. All you can look are the larger scale, pattern features...Not that all us fully understand those things, lol And sure it's easier to look at the precip maps--but nevertheless these computers are gonna jump around with "details" (it's so scattershot you can barely call it that) even more at this range!
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Yes they are...one lesson I learned from the 2018-19 season!
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And given what we saw last month, nobody should take a Day 10 depiction verbatim. You mentioned the chaos with all the waves...that's also been a running theme. Seems like what ya get out of that more often is sloppy or late phasing (and how many times did we yell at this wave or that wave to stop interfering? Lol). When doubt, go with the season's trend until it does something different...
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This range? As in D10? Isn't that kinda par for the course this far out? Lol (It's almost fantasy range, really)
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Let's see if the GFS serves up one of it's patented Saturday Happy Hour specials we've seen this winter, lol
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Dude did ya forget about President's Day weekend? Lol Which would make our second to last shot, imo
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Given how many times we've seen a sloppy/late phase this season, I'd bet on this until we get two days before and everything looks good, lol
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Aw man why'd I walk in here? Looking at D7-8 modeling takes a certain amount of mental discipline...lol It's only a far-out model run, not real...only a model run, not real. Only a..........ah dang it But really the misses this winter do give ya a little more bark.
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Wow you really played with him? That's amazing!! (And yes an older Victor Borge was indeed in his prime)
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Hahaha Delayed music crazy...love it!!
