Maestrobjwa

I do kinda marvel at those that just enjoy tracking no matter what the final result is! I guess there's the enjoyment of the science/hobby side of it, eh? I know for me if it ain't got a shot at much, chasing the week-to-week, Z to Z model runs don't yield much ROI...in these instances the snow is all a ghost, we know that in our logical brains. Yet in some of our subconscious, we see a pink clown map and say "Hey look we've got snow! Yeeeeee....". Then you're exhausted...then repeat with the next threat, lol

Yeah it ain't worth it, y'all! I'm telling ya, lolol Every year I say I won't track as much...but this year may finally be the one where I actually don't! It is just not worth it unless you enjoy the science of it

So, hear me out...Wouldn't a Nina producing anything beyond like...last year, be considered a bit of a random anomaly? Given all I read on here about all the various teleconnections, I'm trying to pull myself away from thinking ninas are indeed a predictable sure hand. It's just that I look at the last 5...and going back to the ones over the last 50 years, and they all (except 1995/96 of course) produced the same results! At least...the same snow results in terms of the totals and type of snowfall. Now...am I putting too much stock in that? Hard to look at something repeat with a specific ENSO and not think it's more of a sure thing. But I'm trying to have a more open mind, lol

What/where do you teach?

Nice!!! Yep it worked

That is frickin' hilarious, lolol

Wait Feb 2021 wasn't a -NAO?

I'd like to discuss what fantasy range (or even 150 hr range) model runs and snowmaps do to our psyches...lol *waits for someone to retort "I'd like to discuss you not posting" or something of the sort*

Now see, what makes me pull my stubs of hair out is how we completely wasted all the low solar we had 3 years ago. Oh sure the -AO/-NAO seemed to respond in 2020-21...but whoops, not enough cold air, and the PV split in the wrong spot and went into TX, smh Mercy

Ain't nobody told you to come in here, lol

Yep. If we can get that or close...that at least will be a winter worth tracking. That's a historically more favorable setup. No 100% guarantees...but it's much better to track when ya got more in your favor. I do hope it happens!

Yeah there's another choice...ignore it entirely and track ENSO status for 2023-24, lolol You tell me why is it so bad to say when things aren’t close to being aligned...that the winter isn't worth tracking? I'll say that and people will act like it's illogical. It's one thing if it was a couple years ago and it looked like we'd have the AO/NAO on our side...at least there was a chance. Now it didn't work out that great, but it was worth looking at where we might have a chance. So now here we are this year, another nina, and no indices in our favor to help...why is it bad/illogical to just write it off, ignore it and track enso for next winter? Other than being optimistic just to be optimistic...in that case we can do that any year no matter what, lol

I mean don't ya gotta have at least one? (Or for ninas maybe two or three, lol). Nina, high solar, no -AO/-NAO in sight...I mean it may not be 2019-20 bad (I hope), but what else is there? Maybe I'm a bit jaded from "letting it play out" last year and the year before...and having it turn out typical nina, lol The result last year in particular was like beyond predictable!

Yeah but isn't that like...a little against logic? I mean when almost every index is against ya...you're still gonna choose to believe it'll be good? (I'm curious to know what you were thinking going into 2019-20, lol) Or are you just like an eternal optimist in general?

Let me ask ya something...are you expecting a good winter?

Yeah but that's the thing though: This ain't the first time this has happened! Folks are calling it the Roughned Rollercoaster because it's been like this all year. He'll screw up badly...but then get a clutch HR in the late innings (I think he has like 3 of those on the year, lol). And everytime you're just about done with him he does something like that! That's why I said he's an enigma, lolol

And Odor is a straight-up emigma...like literally don't even know why or how, lolol

Sir you must not be from around these parts For this subforum...except for southeast and west, ninas aren't usually good here

Where the frickle did this come from? Lol Coming down fast and furious!

I'll take 85-86, 01-02, 08-09, and 12-13 for 500 Alex...because of the years that followed them!

I think ya misread me a bit...I'm not really hoping someone will tell me otherwise. My lament on here has been about terrible ninas and why I gave up on this winter. Now, I'm met with folks saying "it's too early for this"...but my goodness we all know what most ninas (and in this case one without any kind of help unless something changes), look like. So I don't quite understand why people act like it's not logical for me to just look past this coming winter to winter 2023-24 (if we get a niño that is). I mean, I think I can enjoy whatever scenery snow we get this winter that adds up to 10-15" (unless stuff is really hostile), but I'm not gonna waste my time tracking threats. Only thing I'll track is enso to see if the dang nina is finally fading...that's the only other thing I'll be interested in, lol

Leesburg is that you? Lol But seriously, I don't pay either of those models a bit of mind. I was just genuinely curious as to what use--and range--they actually have.

Lol Well yeah I know it's crao at this range...but is there any range where it does actually have a use? Some of these models I wonder why in the world somebody made them, lol

I just don't get it...has this model or that sip-from a can...I mean CanSips-any actual good use? (Serious question)

In other words...don't waste your time folks, lol