Maestrobjwa

I wonder where even they will be in another 8-10 years if this is the new normal...will they be us from before 2016? Lol

Annnnd we don't know why it's warmer unless it's CC...I mean if that's the case we're gonna have to just adjust to it (I think we will over time as this may become the norm and it'll be more like the south, lol). At least we'll know what to expect. It just may not be able to do what it used to. Now if we do finally get a 35 winter again then we can talk

So the 0z Euro kinda tried to do a thing from 186-192...high hangs around for a bit before sliding away and giving some frozen on the backend.

Nope just a GL low instead...mercy.

I think in general that's more of a nina thing. But yes the GL low ruins weenie dreams...it's just what it does, lol

Well let's step into this...mountains get a storm maybe the next one can be cold enough for all *weenie hopium dose*

Welp...overall I will say that if this is a snapshot of things to come, it's not just our climo that's in trouble...but the entire east coast even to Boston/SNE, right? I mean this model run tries to mix even them, lol That feels like an awfully quick flip of the switch...I mean you wouldn't see this even 3-4 years ago.

I'd like to see the temp profile of the last 7 years to see what You mean. To me it's just been the last 3 years or so that have been AN, but maybe that's just perception. I mean 2018 December was cold enough for NC to get snow, Jan 2019 DC got a foot...so it doesn't seem like the warm really started until 2020. But again, I'd like to see the temp data on everything since 2015-16.

That's the warm-up stretch before the plunge

There a lotttt of maybes, lol Now...we went almost a decade with little to no -NAO. So we had one in 2018 that worked great...except it was in March. Then 2021--I feel like that one could be a logbook candidate. Yes it was a Nina, but no clue why it didn't work. Then we had what happened in December. So that's three examples with -NAO...one worked, two didn't. Sample size too small?...

That's my thinking too...Give me a winter where we aren't AN temps most days...think that would be a better test case to see where we are. Sure in the past we could've overcome that, but the net result would be a few more inches, and rarely would we get over our median amount in such winters. Although...I would like to see a comparison of this winter's temp profile with previous ones that may have snowed more.

Now in terms WAA precip...I mean we did get snow from that just two years ago, right? Of course it benefited the western half of the forum more because of where the banding set up, but if it worked just two years ago...hopefully that part isn't broken, lol

Our friend the SER? Warm waters?...I feel like we keep asking this question but don't really have an answer yet.

Wait how the lower eastern shore get that in that scenario? Oh clown maps...lol

Ehhh Wouldn't absolutely zero...There is A storm there...just more if a weird cutter rain and no coastal snow until further north

Yeah I know--Sorry for the contradiction post, lol Someone can correct me if I wasn't looking at it right

EPS looked a tad better around that time frame to my eyes

Hello--this isn't my subforum but I lurk here occasionally. I am so, so sorry for your loss--you have my codolences. I can't even imagine dealing with that at 27...I will certainly pray for you and your family--blessings *prayer emoji*

True dat, lolol

And with the High coming I behind it instead of scooting away...I'd rather take a chance with that. Even if it can't get better than this panel we could at least get something in such a scenario.

KU

I have no clue what to say to that "K" response. But moving on...

Man I'm catchin' strays now when I'm trying to do better, lol I mean I didn't think my post was out of bounds for the LR thread and was completely fact-based. He said we were still in a mod nina but I wanted to confirm if the analysis of the current state was actually accurate...and that was it! And that would've helped discussion, no? And yet somehow...lol

First of all: Let the record show that I said none of these aspersions this time, and that you bringing them up is distracting the thread. You attempted to read my mind psychoanalyze me (and in this case it was an inaccurate analysis of my current thinking) and basically made the kind post I'm now avoiding making in here. Why are you trying to start something? My response to Ji was nothing more than exactly what I said. There is uncertainty given how early it is I have low/no expectations for the enso state as of now, even if it does end up being a niño. 1) It IS early 2) We don't even know if mod niños still work 3) neutrals aren't that good lately so if that's the net result that may not work either. We just don't know because again...it's EARLY And that is all I meant. The rest you added, lol

Yeah but are we actually at a moderate nina right now? (Does somebody have the current numbers?)