Maestrobjwa

I'd like to see the temp profile of the last 7 years to see what You mean. To me it's just been the last 3 years or so that have been AN, but maybe that's just perception. I mean 2018 December was cold enough for NC to get snow, Jan 2019 DC got a foot...so it doesn't seem like the warm really started until 2020. But again, I'd like to see the temp data on everything since 2015-16.

That's the warm-up stretch before the plunge

There a lotttt of maybes, lol Now...we went almost a decade with little to no -NAO. So we had one in 2018 that worked great...except it was in March. Then 2021--I feel like that one could be a logbook candidate. Yes it was a Nina, but no clue why it didn't work. Then we had what happened in December. So that's three examples with -NAO...one worked, two didn't. Sample size too small?...

That's my thinking too...Give me a winter where we aren't AN temps most days...think that would be a better test case to see where we are. Sure in the past we could've overcome that, but the net result would be a few more inches, and rarely would we get over our median amount in such winters. Although...I would like to see a comparison of this winter's temp profile with previous ones that may have snowed more.

Now in terms WAA precip...I mean we did get snow from that just two years ago, right? Of course it benefited the western half of the forum more because of where the banding set up, but if it worked just two years ago...hopefully that part isn't broken, lol

Our friend the SER? Warm waters?...I feel like we keep asking this question but don't really have an answer yet.

Wait how the lower eastern shore get that in that scenario? Oh clown maps...lol

Ehhh Wouldn't absolutely zero...There is A storm there...just more if a weird cutter rain and no coastal snow until further north

Yeah I know--Sorry for the contradiction post, lol Someone can correct me if I wasn't looking at it right

EPS looked a tad better around that time frame to my eyes

Hello--this isn't my subforum but I lurk here occasionally. I am so, so sorry for your loss--you have my codolences. I can't even imagine dealing with that at 27...I will certainly pray for you and your family--blessings *prayer emoji*

True dat, lolol

And with the High coming I behind it instead of scooting away...I'd rather take a chance with that. Even if it can't get better than this panel we could at least get something in such a scenario.

KU

I have no clue what to say to that "K" response. But moving on...

Man I'm catchin' strays now when I'm trying to do better, lol I mean I didn't think my post was out of bounds for the LR thread and was completely fact-based. He said we were still in a mod nina but I wanted to confirm if the analysis of the current state was actually accurate...and that was it! And that would've helped discussion, no? And yet somehow...lol

First of all: Let the record show that I said none of these aspersions this time, and that you bringing them up is distracting the thread. You attempted to read my mind psychoanalyze me (and in this case it was an inaccurate analysis of my current thinking) and basically made the kind post I'm now avoiding making in here. Why are you trying to start something? My response to Ji was nothing more than exactly what I said. There is uncertainty given how early it is I have low/no expectations for the enso state as of now, even if it does end up being a niño. 1) It IS early 2) We don't even know if mod niños still work 3) neutrals aren't that good lately so if that's the net result that may not work either. We just don't know because again...it's EARLY And that is all I meant. The rest you added, lol

Yeah but are we actually at a moderate nina right now? (Does somebody have the current numbers?)

Did you miss the "uncertainty remains high" part? Lol And I scarcely doubt this is some quadruple nina. Someone else can weigh in though. Sounds like we just can't know yet...but I've heard that currently, deep down things are warming. But that's all we know, I think.

Pretty sure Beethoven did that a lot...lol

I'm not sure any model provokes an audible groan more than the SREF...I think even the JMA has more respect, lol

Speaking of that...and I asked this once before but did not screenshot the response...Why is it we don't get ice storms like this up here that often? And I'm wondering...say our climo changes so much in the future that we become the south...wonder if that means we get more ice storms?

Well not like the slight respite we got from it did us much good anyway!

I'm not sure even Joe Clark can save things...but then again he could grab his mega phone and tell the SER to get back to Central Atlantic class.

Don't worry that was mostly tongue-in-cheek (mostly ) Now I do have this thing where, no matter how awful it's been, I still keeping one eye out until that weekend passes--that weekend is like the last game of the season for better or worse, lol