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Maestrobjwa

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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa

  1. Maestrobjwa
    Meanwhile Euro got a little slider at hr 156...
  2. Maestrobjwa
    Hey look! A positive tick inside 200 hrs (and not on an off-hour run either) Not yet a trend, but...we ain't had even this much at this range yet, lol Let's see if it carries over the next couple Zs... @Ralph Wiggum Why sad emoji? SER looks a bit better here, no?
  3. Maestrobjwa
    So basically a Cat 5 under each wing? Sounds a bit turbulent
  4. Maestrobjwa
    Canadian tried to do the thing...a bit suppresed this run, but at least it ain't show another cutter (every model run that DOESN'T show a cutter for that time frame is good..no, GREAT run, haha)
  5. Maestrobjwa
    I'm gonna go out on a limb and say if next week does indeed fail it won't be from suppresion...I'd bet my next paycheck on that too if I were a gambler, lol Ain't no way with that ridge being what it is that the moisture gets suppresed! Now interestingly only the 18z gfs has shown a cutter...everybody else has shown moisture south. Something to watch, I suppose...
  6. Maestrobjwa
    Whoa!!! Congratulations man! Well that certainly trumps even snow--yeah it's not worth it to have any attention divided to what's been going on. P.S. If it snows after your child is born we will certainly need to give it (boy or girl?) a username already
  7. Maestrobjwa
    Absolutely agree with your point about the op runs and such. But I will say though...if you indeed maintain general optimism for the season even in the face of this...sir that is commendable!
  8. Maestrobjwa
    And you know what? Getting modoki niño next winter might not even matter dude...like our historically best enso state. I mean...ordinarily you'd be encouraged by it but I'm not so sure it even works. And the SER...do we even know if that calms down next year? Smh
  9. Maestrobjwa
    Now in particular I was referring to the SER.
  10. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah but again though...given this year? I have my doubts...what, is the dang SER gonna just suddenly disappear at the start of March? Lol I mean I know the nina is on the way out, but even still...ehh
  11. Maestrobjwa
    How would that happen with SE ridge being what it is?
  12. Maestrobjwa
    Isn't this rather excessive even for a nina, though?
  13. Maestrobjwa
    I have muted expectations...but just going off of history...even we aren't THAT mediocre. If we can't break through with something big, I'd bet we'll get something where we measure just enough not to break that futility record, haha
  14. Maestrobjwa
    Hard to believe we get absolutely shut out. I mean...even our lowest year at 0.7" managed 0.5" of those in January, lol
  15. Maestrobjwa
    Now I did see that...wasn't sure how to interpret what was going on with the pacific and whether that was a bit of a +PNA or something else unrelated.
  16. Maestrobjwa
    Now listen...even in all my neurosis about snow, one thing even I don't do too much is take a LR op run as pure gospel. C'mon y'all, lol
  17. Maestrobjwa
    Yeeeeah it's drunk alright
  18. Maestrobjwa
    I mean the Euro solution we ain't seen all winter (have we?) I mean that SE ridge ain't surrendered to quite that extent save the temporary arctic front Christmas Eve/Day. So you'd think the solution would be either the GFS or something between that and the euro control...
  19. Maestrobjwa
    Nah not sayin' that either...but I'd argue for an exception in winters like this one. Clemency for extraordinary circumstances
  20. Maestrobjwa
    Except in this case we already know it's been bad, lol It's like once a newspaper reports on a bad situation...after awhile it ain't nothin' else to talk about if there are no further updates. Monday: The building burned down Tuesday: Building still burned down Tuesday (a month later): Building is still burned, lol (wow what an update!)
  21. Maestrobjwa
    Ehh nah...I don't know. Good analysis is good analysis. I mean some analyzers on here may say it looks awful and then don't say a lot if it still look awful...and pop back in when it gets better, lol But don't be perplexed when ya get the dead horse reaction though...You can only hear the same bad thing everyday (even when it's true) before it's like "Yes, yes I know I KNOW!" (Like when a family member nags ya, lol)
  22. Maestrobjwa
    I don't think anybody is asking you to do that, man. The "dead horse" effect is there because I think everybody knows how bad it's been and how hard it is to snow this year. Don't gotta lie (wouldn't want ya to) but like...if there's no good news to report...sometime it's better not to have the reminder and just get an update if/when it gets better (I know that's what some posters do on here. If it's bad ya don't hear from 'em as much, lol) Maybe I'm wrong for thinking that, though...
  23. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah I gotcha just havin' a little fun, lol But I'm glad other more experienced posters are saying what I rather unsuccessfully tried to say the other day. Like we know the reality, but that don't mean we gotta rehash and rehash. Nothing at all against good analysis--but I think everybody is worn out, and if there be even a slight chance it's better to focus on that than the other (even if it don't work out).
  24. Maestrobjwa
    So now we got dueling analyses from two top posters! Prof. CAPE vs. Prof PSU. Round 1z: Predict!
  25. Maestrobjwa
    Speaking of that...am I hallucinating or have the GEFS and EPS been trying to pop a temporary + PNA in our little window next weekend (that is the 3rd-5th)? Also...I seem to recall some previous analogs that indicated that heavy blocking in December correlated to it's return sometime later that winter. Of course, who knows if analogs still work anymore, lol...but just wondering.
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