Maestrobjwa

This is a season of "Certainly this must be better.....then 'what the heck? WHY?'"

Well if these trends continue...at least I won't have to hear about anywhere just northeast getting hammered...that to me makes misses even worse. So there is that, lol

Yeah this has changed my perception of the Miller B "look". I guess they don't all have to "look" like the picture on the right (and if the southern wave gets left behind it may as well be that, lol). But it is weird...ours looks like "A" to start and "B" to finish. But the overall process appears to be "B"...except that transfer and tuck process would start a little earlier below us but not enough for us to get in on the "bombing out"

Relax. It's not going to snow. Take it easy Hello pot I'm kettle

Haha That is awesome! Also explains alot

So it's really that much of a discrepancy between 500 and the surface depictions?

I mean that solution would rob everybody, wouldn't it? Lol

If you're serious that is hilarious, lolol

That Cranky dude called it "Deep Blunder"...much more accurate, lolol

It's the IWM (I wish model)

While my less logical brain is with ya...because we could still see flakes from this, the thread will probably stay open to the end...even if it's a bitter one, lol

By the time the sun angle becomes an issue, our window for good snow (which is typically Jan. 15th-President's day--albeit we stared a bit early this year) has already passed. March means little for the lower elevations, and too much has to go right to get anything meaningful.

And that's disappointing...because we had an stj in a nina--thought we'd have a chance...and even one time last weekend where we had the moisture perfectly coming up from the south only for the storm to get yanked by random NS junk. And then last week the waves couldn't come together. And then you get to this week, the proverbial "as the pattern breaks down" storm...and it looks to be all or nothing if a Miller B. Progressive patterns are progressive patterns...too many waves for anythinf substantial...lesson learned. Hope we can get a Nino and blocking next year.

The question is... A) Is that still even possible, and b) What would have to happen to get there? (Utter perfection? Lol

Yeah I guess that's not terrible...albeit that ever elusive WSW may not be met with that...although it would still be nice to look at. Would put me at about 14" for the year...not too bad for a nina--and at least this has FELT like winter. All the same...the longer we go without a big punch, the more I wanna see one. We're due!

Nah you had the storm in 1987...so that was only 4 years or so. But after that there wasn't much until the '93 superstorm--so 6 years there. From that point on we never went more than 6-7 years without a 2-footer, and not more than 3-4 without a 1 footer. So for my generation...yeah it's been a tough stretch. But hey not this year maybe next year with a good niño

Time for a break...lol

Wait did he actually make that resolution? Lol

Hey I understand the HECS hunting...it has been quite a while (6 years, actually) I'd be outright lying if I said I wasn't somewhat hoping for a miracle one out of this. But also trying to live in reality, lol

I don't understand how you can have even a scenario like the 12z GFS where ya still have moisture from the south still be called a Miller B. I thought they were strictly northern stream teaveling west to east>>transfer at our latitude>>>bomb northeast. But here we still have a southern sw interaction...giving us more moisture than usual. Isn't that kind of a monkey wrench in things? (A good wrench, in this case!)

I didn't think so. Just that a few others are kinda bearish...I mean I understand why given our hhistory...yet this just doesn't feel like a pure Miller b to my novice eyes...I mean the southern component and the uncertainty of it's involvement is a wildcard, imo. I guess what I'm asking is what scenario would have to happen in order for us to get warning-level snow out of this. But perhaps it's too early to tell

So I'm guessing the better minds don't see this trending any snowier than a few inches?

You edited me...that is copyright infringement of the highest order...as I would never utter such...lol

Looks a little more souther...

Oh yeah I'm aware of the song, lol