Maestrobjwa

Oh dang really? So that would mean we'd HAVE to score by the end of January. I mean we still have time, but I'm wondering how long that cold dry will last. But we have to get the cold in here, though...so we may have to deal with that just to build up the cold we need...because if we don't, we won't get anywhere with our current airmass either, right? I guess it's a matter of hoping we get the cold that has the side effect of being dry...but that it doesn't last so long that we lose the month.

True, lol

Whoops! Didn't look at the year...c'mon @Ralph Wiggum just why? Lol

Careful...that might be the Miller B screw job PSU warned about...don't fall for it! I'm not paying that weekend a bit of mind!!

Mods, I see y'all had to put a special red bar at the top of the site, hahaha I'm sure folks have been actin' a fool today! Thank you!!

Feels like you oughta make a thread with just this post and have the mods pin it at the top, lol

But I'd argue, though...with the weak sauce cold that we haven't been able to build yet...how can we possibly have a good HECS pattern? Is it possible that we could, temporarily be a little stuck between needing a period of legit cold...yet getting that cold brings would bring more suppression before it relaxes? In other words...right now, we struggle for cold and need a phased out bomb...lessening a chance for big snow. Yet if we get legit cold we need to give ourselves a better airmass to work with...could end up giving us a hopefully temporary period of suppression? (I know my thoughts are a tad jumbled but I hope my point is clear)

Now my thing is...if we are headed into the extreme cold...I have to wonder if we have until the week of the 20th to get any precip before the cold gets too suppressive (after which I guess we'd have to wait for another relaxation?)

I'm telling ya those are bad for mental health...lol

That's why I don't understand the hysteria in here. It was never progged to be before the middle of the month! (and historically it's always mid January on even in most of our best years)

It literally farted out flakes...lol

Define "real cold air"

The problem is expectations were too early. Dude, when did you hear anybody (other than DT's slightly early call) say anything about early January being the period to watch? Now either I missed something...or the thinking has been mid-January on for good potential. The blocking is already on the doorstep...as this run of the GFS shows for the 11th @psuhoffman the suppression on that run is indicative of that, right? And Ji, tell me...how many moderate or big storms have we had before the middle of January in our history? Answer: Not many (got two December big hits, and one early January--that being 1996). So even in our best years this is kinda how things happen. It is far too early to panic (although I know you do anyway, lol). So no, not having anything to track by now isn't a "problem" imo.

Giving up based on...one event? Now I could understand if the longwave pattern wasn't looking as favorable in the LR, or if we weren't still progged to get blocking, but...panicking just because of the weekend deal? Don't quite get that...look ahead, folks! Better off letting the weekend go and letting it be a surprise if it works out.

I'm not even focused on Friday (never was, really). Time to watch is afterward for me...I view Friday as a possible starting date for tracking (unless the 11th/12th deal works out...how's that looking, btw?)

Now I don't get that...why would your thread would be neurotic? You guys live in NEW ENGLAND. Average snowfall is what...30-40"? So why? Lol

That would be a very nina-ish result (snowhole), would it not? Would love to get in on one of those storms, but...as long as we have something to track beyond that...I can be okay with it, lol

Although it will be historically easier...we have done a lot better in their stadium in the playoffs than trying to play them here. I feel a lot better playing them there than here!

And with that...we are in!! Now to get the biggest monkey of our back...and go on from there!! LET'S GO!! Go Ravens!!

And this is the chaos part I don't like...because you don't know what's gonna be a favorable interaction and an unfavorable one...and or if one interaction happens at the right time or the wrong time...dang it, lol

Thanks for the write-up @psuhoffman! A good reference to have..So essentially, I gather from this is that pure Miller B's are kinda heartbreakers that either screw us completely or, at best, give us a small-moderate amount while dumping more further north/northeast? Could we say, then...that the next time we have a modeled pure Miller B, it's better to look at it as low probability? (no matter what the op depictions are, lol) The southern system part makes sense...I can see STJ involvement is kind of our bread and butter isn't it?

Yeah I mean...we weren't even expecting this to be a thing a week ago. As you said, this would be pretty much gravy on top of what could lie ahead if things keep trending well!

So let's see...we have this scar, and the Boxing day scar. Both between Christmas and New Year's...I rest my case, lol Never trust that time frame down here for decent snow, folks! Wait till afterward...most of the medium/big ones fall between early/mid January and President's Day.

Ah I see...(same thing about the date, though...moderate to big storms don't happen between Christmas and New Year's, lol) Now...I'm still unclear on what Miller B's fo here...Now I assumed they were like a 90% failure here because of the problem of developing too late. Yet we can do better with a hybrid? @psuhoffman @CAPE or anybody else care to weigh in on this?

A snow event didn't work on December 27th? Surprise, surprise...lol What happened that time...suppression?