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Maestrobjwa

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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa

  1. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah but it appears to be making a break for it, lol
  2. Maestrobjwa
    Oops...lol
  3. Maestrobjwa
    So in this case, we actually want something more progressive, eh?
  4. Maestrobjwa
    Boundary seems to have a little more confluence over top...still too warm this run but a little further south with the boundary, it appears.
  5. Maestrobjwa
    Nah I was referring to @Rjay posting the snow here, lol
  6. Maestrobjwa
    @stormtracker What beith this thing you've brought upon this subforum???
  7. Maestrobjwa
    Just why man, lol You cometh to torture and rub it in, don't ye?...
  8. Maestrobjwa
    I honestly don't know what questions to ask and not ask anymore (or if there's a limit). But I'm starting not to care aboru whatever the rule is...if I wanna know what happened on a particular model run, dang it I'm askin'! Like when @WinterWxLuvrhighlighted the vorts the other day? Very helpful! At least I know WHY the storm went the way it did, and how that vort was getting in the way. Was I angry at that vort (or the "tail" per se)? Absolutely! But at least I Iearned something about WHY the modeled solution was happening. Now tell me...was it wrong to ask that question? Too specific? Is it wrong to wanna know what's muckin' it up, and what might make a solution better/give us a better chance? All of the discussion this week helped me reach the conclusion that this was a long shot and I kinda tuned it out by lime Wednesday. But NOW...I know that any setup like this without some good blocking, and in a progressive pattern, is a long shot that probably won't happen outside a big fluke. And now I also am learning why more of a gradient pattern has somewhat better (but not guaranteed) chance of working in a pattern like this. None would I learn without asking.
  9. Maestrobjwa
    Nope, not worth it--it'll be just like today.
  10. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah I'll pick...none of 'em! One ready to screw up another
  11. Maestrobjwa
    I'm not looking for 100% probabilities, though...I think ya got that part wrong. I watch model runs like sports: A good model run is like when your team scores a touchdown. A bad one is like when your team throws a pick-6 or something. I feel good or bad about a run accordingly. And just like you try to discuss and figure out how your team can make a comeback, why is it any different, then...to do the same with model runs?
  12. Maestrobjwa
    Now hang on...this part here simply isn't true. I'm not looking for bs on here--just a better idea of what might happen, what we need to see for a better chance, and what went wrong in a particular scenario depicted on a model run. Not looking for anybody to sugar-coat anything. I have no idea of "iteration of the same general question" Like...when? I can understand last year--and I've tried to keep that in mind: don't ask hyper specifics. But this year? This past storm I did nothing but ask "What needs to happen here"? Not whether it absolutely will. I look for positive trends just like everybody else. Like who here doesn't? Lol So forgive me if I don't know the rules And dang it of course everybody would LIKE to know what's going to happen, even though we know weather is gonna weather. There's much I still don't understand and I'm trying to learn how stuff works. But yet where do ya learn...ain't no other forum that talks about any of this, and it ain't like there's a bunch of online lectures (if it is tell me). Now as for the other...yes I do get miserable when things don't turn out well--absolutely. But you cannot tell me I'm the only one here that does...are you kidding?
  13. Maestrobjwa
    Ah dang it what has Chill done...lol
  14. Maestrobjwa
    Not sure that boundary gets pushed far enough south...and the GFS is doing nothing of the kind. This winter if the GFS ain't doin' it it ain't happenin', lol
  15. Maestrobjwa
    Listen I'm learnin', alright? Ya kinda called me out on that last year and I heard ya...just taking a bit and I'm learning with some experience I'm slowly embracing the chaos of all this It's just my nature to wanna know what gives the best CHANCE of something happening, what helps and what can get in the way...what might go right, what may go wrong...why something is happening. I'm a big WHY person. So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point?
  16. Maestrobjwa
    Don't claim that...PLEASE
  17. Maestrobjwa
    Dang I didn't know we had that problem in niños too...why is it then that they tend to work a bit better? And what effect does blocking have on muting our progressive tendencies?
  18. Maestrobjwa
    Ya talking about in regards to the nina state or just in general?
  19. Maestrobjwa
    When the snow looks like fog you know you're gettin' blitzed, lol
  20. Maestrobjwa
    About to go to bed...but everything covered now! Just inside the band here! Definitely some blowing snow from the coastal cranking up. Haven't measured, but eyeballing 1-1.5" so far.
  21. Maestrobjwa
    Hey look! Lol Baltimore on the right side of the fringe! Thought the snow looked kinda blowy...lol
  22. Maestrobjwa
    Funny story...I actually forgot more was coming tonight and was kinda surprised to look out my window and see some surfaces cave, lol Huh...
  23. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah definitely far from the rational side of the brain, lol No matter how much I try to tell myself that this doesn't have to matter so much...that less rational part of the brain still wants to throw a fit. And yeah, I'm like you--I'll take one big HECS all day because they are indeed special. And yeah, I've lived here all of my brief 31 years...but I've been actively tracking on here for about 7-8 years. Ignorance was bliss...the misses still hurt but at least I didn't know the model runs yet, lol But perhaps time will take some of the sting out of these misses (and thankfully you only hear about it for a couple days!) Anyway, thanks for your thoughts!
  24. Maestrobjwa
    Hey it's making a comeback on 18z
  25. Maestrobjwa
    Ya know, I think what other people get, and having to hear about it through various things (TV, phone notifications, etc) bothers me much more than if the whole thing had whiffed everybody. I swear everytime I see it I wanna throw something, seriously. So a month where I get 10-12" can be dampened if 3 storms that include a blizzard just missed while I sit down here with consolation flakes. That is where the ROI is terrible...yet I feel like I have no choice because I need it to snow and, even more so, need to not see storms just miss...for such impacts mental health either way. Nothing worse than the emotional hangover from misses like this one. I know there will always be places that get more in any given season...but when you're sitting in your own 6-year "bigger one" drought, it sucks to keep watching the big ones miss. But I hear ya both though...finding ways to be grateful for what we DO get. As someone said, if we didn't know what was going on elsewhere, we'd be happy with a 10-12" January, lol
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