Maestrobjwa

Don't know about anybody else but that actually makes it worse for me...I'd rather keep the windows closed and pretend we still need the heat, lol (actually my bedroom can hold onto a chill for days, so I can still feel it )

This isn't a real science forum--it just plays one on TV

My apologies--no there isn't, just a heavy dose of hopium mixed with weenieism there. (Although 0z Euro and Gfs did show a cold front after a cutter with some precip at the boundary...but that's way out in fantasy land, of course)

The slowdown combined with an already awful airmass is what sunk this one. Welp...we made it till' 120 hrs this time--maybe next weekend we can bring it home

CMC with an earlier onset than the GFS...gfs definitely looks the slowest right now.

Please don't ask why, lol

I'd say that was an overall positive step. I mean we've got no choice but to play the amped game...so not necessarily a bad thing? Just my inexperienced .02

We really don't have to, do we?

I daresay this is one of the few cases where it actually could. Still a ways to go, of course...but this would be the scenario.

Not to mention...there really aren't any other threats to track, lol, so it's not like there will be any confusion over what's we're talking about

Now a first glance it appears to be either amped and it hits us or less amped/more progressive and it gets suppressed...but you're saying there's another scenario where it's just kinda amped (and not enough) for snow?

Yeah and we don't care if the shovel you have is busted up and hanging off the handle...if anybody gets one you're walkin' the snowboard!

Yeah we'll have to see if things are converging into two camps progressive/weak/south, or amped and dynamic. I'll happily dice roll with the ladder

ICON also tried to bring it up the coast at the end of it's 18z run

Nope! Usually by now the weekend threat is completely off the table, lol

That a bit more of a capture than last run? Looked like it

Certainly you must've been hibernating far away from the SE ridge this year...lol

Yeah it's Tuesday and it hasn't gone poof yet? We golden

Like a stronger version of the ICON, basically

See what you done did?

Something to consider: What if we all were standing out in a cold, raw rain...and for whatever reason somebody felt the need to say "It's raining!" every 5 minutes...as if we didn't know that already? Lol I mean...if it was painfully obvious to everybody else, would it still be valuable to hear somebody say that every 5 mins? Sure, they'd be 100% correct that it's raining...but after awhile...would an already miserable crowd not be justified and saying "Yes, we know!"?

Huh...wonky distribution of totals this time, lol You have to wonder if other models pick up on this, it could be a rate-dependent thing.

And those blockbuster years...I'm guessing it would have to involve another mechanism to overcome possible temp issues? Because it doesn't seem like track is enough anymore, tbh I'm trying to envision exactly how snow happens in these conditions.

If so...man that was quick! I mean just 4 years ago at least NYC could do better (and even Boston). It feels like what may have been a gradual decline just went off a dang cliff the last 3 years! I mean prior to 2020 I don't remember perfect track middle of winter rainstorms and cutter after ccutter. Yeah we had our normal fails from Miller Bs, unlucky timing (i.e. Dec 2018) and other things...but not like this. Of course my view could be skewed from not knowing anything about tracking until 2014 or so, but...this feels awfully sharp to me.