cheese007

It begins... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129-021200- /O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.220202T2100Z-220204T0000Z/ Montague-Cooke-Young-Jack-Wise-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker- Eastland- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, and Gorman 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...A transition from rain to freezing rain then to sleet and snow. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central Texas. * WHEN...From 3 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute on Thursday. The cold wind chills as low as 5 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Power outages and tree damage will be possible due to ice. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 TXZ093>095-103>107-118>121-130>134-141>145-156-157-021200- /O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/ Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Tarrant- Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis- Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Lampasas-Coryell- Including the cities of Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, and Gatesville 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...A transition from rain to freezing rain then to sleet and snow. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to half an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas. * WHEN...From 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute on Thursday. The cold wind chills as low as zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Power outages and tree damage are likely due to ice. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. && $$

Dallas ISD has closed schools for Thurs/Fri

LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday Onward/ Key Points: * There is potential for a winter storm to impact the region Wednesday evening into Thursday. There is only about a 10% chance of seeing only cold rain Wednesday night with only light accumulations of sleet/snow Thursday. * Widespread rain Wednesday afternoon is expected to transition to freezing rain/sleet overnight. Where this transition occurs, ice and sleet accumulation is likely. Accumulating snow is likely across Western North Texas Wednesday night and Thursday. * Very cold air will move into the region Wednesday night and bring dangerously cold wind chills Thursday and Friday mornings regardless of winter precip. Temperatures are not expected to rise above freezing until Friday for most and Saturday for some. * Travel and other ice-related impacts would linger into Friday with some lingering into Saturday. * There is still uncertainty regarding where/when the transition from rain to winter precip will occur. Snow and ice forecast amounts are very low confidence and will likely change. Meteorological Details/Discussion: The data continues to favor a winter storm impacting the region Wednesday night into Thursday, however, it is still not a "slam dunk" forecast. While it is more likely than not, there is still about a 10-20% chance that only minor impacts are seen outside of a few locations within North Texas. We have decided to hold off on the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch until we are more confident of which locations will/won`t see major disruptions or impacts. A cold front will move into the region Wednesday with falling temperatures behind the front. Expect temperatures to drop below freezing from northwest to southeast Wednesday night. It`s worth noting that we can`t completely ignore the fact that some guidance keeps the sub-freezing air to our north until closer to daybreak Thursday. Shallow arctic fronts have a tendency to outpace the coarser mesoscale/global guidance in the long-range, therefore we have continued to side with the faster guidance. The meteorological setup for this event is very favorable for a freezing rain and sleet event, particularly across North Texas. It really is just a matter of how fast the sub-freezing temperatures arrive. A faster progression of the cold air would mean a more significant winter precip event while delayed cold air would lead to mainly minor impacts. The consensus and our current forecast, however, is that the cold air will arrive Wednesday night and bring winter precip to just about all of North and Central Texas Wednesday night and Thursday. Wednesday will start mild under thick cloud cover with steadily deteriorating conditions through the day. The cold front will bring a northerly wind shift, dense cloud cover, and falling temperatures. The shallow front will undercut the lower density air ahead of it and develop dense stratus with strong low-level isentropic ascent as the air rides overtop of the cold air. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough will remain planted over the SW CONUS through the end of the week. A potent shortwave trough will eject out of this low and move overtop of Texas Wednesday night into Thursday. As the ascent associated with the trough taps into the moist low-level isentropic ascent, widespread rain will develop behind the front. It should start to develop around noon Wednesday then become most widespread overnight. The precip will continue through the night and Thursday morning before coming to an end Thursday afternoon as the trough moves east. Current P-Type Forecast: - All precip should fall as rain during daylight hours Wednesday. An initial transition to freezing rain is likely across Western North Texas around nightfall. Freezing rain should approach the Metroplex around midnight, Waco around 3 AM, then the Brazos Valley and our far southeastern counties around daybreak Thursday. We then expect sleet to develop somewhat quickly (within an hour or so) after the changeover to freezing rain, with several hours of sleet and/or freezing rain. As temperatures continue to fall through the night, freezing rain will become less likely with the precip becoming almost all sleet. Shortly after this, snow will likely mix in for those generally north and west of the Metroplex. Western North Texas will likely see a full changeover to snow early Thursday. If precip lingers much into Thursday, it will be all snow for North Texas and a mix of freezing rain/sleet for our eastern Central Texas counties. - Please keep in mind the coldest air will be across Western North Texas with the warmest temperatures over eastern Central Texas, so the evolution above may not be representative of every location within our forecast area and is a generalizations for what you can expect. Please see our "point and click" forecast for a detailed breakdown at your location. Accumulation Forecast: ICE: - It appears that the highest ice accumulation will occur to the northeast of the Metroplex. At this point, the highest ice accumulation is expected in a band from about Paris to DFW to Stephenville with 0.10-0.25" of ice possible in this region, with higher amounts NE of DFW. - DFW and Waco have a low chance of receiving 0.25" of ice but a high chance of receiving between 0.10-0.25" of ice. Paris has a moderate chance of receiving 0.25" of ice. - Less than 0.10" of ice is forecast across Western North Texas where precip should transition to sleet/snow earlier. Less than 0.10" of ice is also forecast in and east of the Brazos Valley where temperatures remain above freezing or only drop into the low 30s while precip is falling. NOTE: We usually want to have temperatures at or below 28 F to receive significant ice accumulations. That is not necessarily true with this event due to brisk north winds around 20-25 mph. Strong winds will help expel heat from surface objects, but will be very efficiently expel heat from the individual water droplets as they fall & make contact with the surface. Due to this, we can start to receive significant ice accumulation with temperatures around 30-31 F instead of the typical 28 F threshold. SLEET/SNOW: - The highest sleet/snow accumulations should remain over Western North Texas, however at least a trace of sleet/snow is possible for just about everyone. - At this time between 2-3" of sleet/snow is possible for our far western row of counties, with between 1-2" of snow possible NW of the Metroplex. - As far as sleet alone...The highest sleet accumulation is likely to remain along & north of I-20 and west of ~Sherman. Sleet accumulations between 0.75-1.5" are not out of the question at this point. - Any sleet and snow that falls will accumulate easily as it settles on a layer of ice. The forecast above would likely cause significant travel impacts across the region Thursday. Most high rise overpasses would become glazed over with ice and untreated surface roads could also become slick. Ice accumulation on utility lines with winds gusting to 30-35 mph could also cause power outages. With temperatures not rising above freezing Thursday, ice would likely not melt until Friday for most or Saturday if significant accumulations were experienced. While most of our attention has been on the precipitation, we are more confident about the post-precipitation temperature forecast late in the week. Overnight lows Friday and Saturday mornings will likely fall into the single digits and teens. Gusty winds Friday will cause wind chill values well into the single digits for everyone and below zero from those west of I-35/35W. Please remember the 4 P`s and protect sensitive People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes. Temperatures should warm Saturday and Sunday, but still remain about 10-20 degrees below normal. Bonnette

I take it based on the latest graphics out of FWD they're on the hype train

Media hype getting into gear already. February always seems to be make or break for North Texas winters!

Might see some snow flurries Wednesday in the northwestern part of DFW

Getting some snow flurries out by DFW airport

Tornado watch until 10:00 PM including Beaumont and Houston metro areas. 30/20 probs SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Regenerative supercells will remain possible through this evening. Brief tornadoes will be the primary hazard. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Lufkin TX to 15 miles east southeast of Houston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 20025. ...Grams

Confirmed Tornado near Kenefick per NWS and TX Storm Chasers

2nd Tor warning out for Dayton, TX

Tornado warning in the Houston metro area near Bush airport

NYD threat upgraded to ENH for sig tors

D1 upgrade to ENH for northern AL/MS, parts of AR and TN

D3 slight risk for areas listed above and D5 15% covering a similar area with the addition of more of Arkansas and Louisiana, portions of middle and western Tennessee, Missouri bootheel, and south-central Kentucky

Image description: SPC 15% contour covering far southeastern Arkansas, far northeastern and central Louisiana, most of Mississippi, and a significant portion of western Alabama

Looks like at least one more chance for severe weather in 2021 coming soon: ...D5/Wed - Northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and vicinity... Prior to D5, the warm sector moisture has been contaminated by continental air which has led to weak instability across much of the warm sector. However, by Tuesday night, a true maritime tropical moisture feed is forecast to overtake the western Gulf of Mexico. Persistent southerly flow will advect this airmass inland from eastern Texas to northern Mississippi/Alabama by Wednesday afternoon. Moderate instability should develop south of a front, which is expected to be in place from eastern Texas into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley region. There is decent model agreement with the increasing low-level moisture and the relative position of the surface front. However, the upper-level pattern does cast more uncertainty on the forecast. The details of any severe weather threat will come from the evolution of the low-amplitude wave to eject from the larger scale western CONUS upper-level trough. Predictability of the timing/amplitude of upper-level troughs such as these is inherently challenging, especially at Day 5. Therefore, it is unsurprising that there is still considerable spread between available mid-range model guidance. The last 2 runs of the ECMWF have shown a more amplified mid-upper level trough which would initiate a greater low-level mass response and likely lead to a greater severe-weather threat. Therefore, uncertainty remains regarding the evolution, timing, and amplitude of the upper-level pattern on Wednesday. However, there has been a consistent signal for surface-based storms in an environment with moderate buoyancy and strong shear for several days. The aforementioned arrival of a maritime tropical airmass in the vicinity of a surface front and at least weak height falls aloft is consistent with at least scattered storm development. Therefore, confidence is high enough to introduce 15 percent severe probabilities for Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2021

40% chance of a watch being issued roughly covering the D1 slight risk

What even is this shape?

"Our housing is poorly built" and "The NWS has been needlessly stingy with EF5 ratings" are not mutually exclusive statements

Either that or tornadoes that happen to hit high-rises and do major damage

What I meant to post lol

As a counterpoint to the previous tweet. Would not be shocked if EF-4 is the final rating

Looks like the tri-state record may stand after all