cheese007

Image description: SPC 15% contour covering far southeastern Arkansas, far northeastern and central Louisiana, most of Mississippi, and a significant portion of western Alabama

Looks like at least one more chance for severe weather in 2021 coming soon: ...D5/Wed - Northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and vicinity... Prior to D5, the warm sector moisture has been contaminated by continental air which has led to weak instability across much of the warm sector. However, by Tuesday night, a true maritime tropical moisture feed is forecast to overtake the western Gulf of Mexico. Persistent southerly flow will advect this airmass inland from eastern Texas to northern Mississippi/Alabama by Wednesday afternoon. Moderate instability should develop south of a front, which is expected to be in place from eastern Texas into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley region. There is decent model agreement with the increasing low-level moisture and the relative position of the surface front. However, the upper-level pattern does cast more uncertainty on the forecast. The details of any severe weather threat will come from the evolution of the low-amplitude wave to eject from the larger scale western CONUS upper-level trough. Predictability of the timing/amplitude of upper-level troughs such as these is inherently challenging, especially at Day 5. Therefore, it is unsurprising that there is still considerable spread between available mid-range model guidance. The last 2 runs of the ECMWF have shown a more amplified mid-upper level trough which would initiate a greater low-level mass response and likely lead to a greater severe-weather threat. Therefore, uncertainty remains regarding the evolution, timing, and amplitude of the upper-level pattern on Wednesday. However, there has been a consistent signal for surface-based storms in an environment with moderate buoyancy and strong shear for several days. The aforementioned arrival of a maritime tropical airmass in the vicinity of a surface front and at least weak height falls aloft is consistent with at least scattered storm development. Therefore, confidence is high enough to introduce 15 percent severe probabilities for Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2021

40% chance of a watch being issued roughly covering the D1 slight risk

What even is this shape?

"Our housing is poorly built" and "The NWS has been needlessly stingy with EF5 ratings" are not mutually exclusive statements

Either that or tornadoes that happen to hit high-rises and do major damage

What I meant to post lol

As a counterpoint to the previous tweet. Would not be shocked if EF-4 is the final rating

Looks like the tri-state record may stand after all

Unbelievable damage footage coming out of Mayfield. Like others have said it very much looks similar to the Joplin aftermath

Awful. Just awful

More signs of major damage in Bowling Green

Real chance that Mayfield tornado is our first certified EF5 since 2013

Video of fire at the Corvette plant in Bowling Green

Debris sig north of Mount Juliet right by the radar

Very real chance the Mayfield tornado beats the previous fatality record of 76 for tornado fatalities in Kentucky. Meanwhile, almost certainly TOG heading into Nashville proper. Devastating evening/early morning

EDIT: Warning about to be extended into Nashville metro. 22 minutes until it impacts the WSMVTV studios

Possible debris ball south side of Dickson per WSMTV. Wind going buckwild on their chaser's livestream, possible powerflash: https://www.facebook.com/WSMVTV/videos/447806210061244 EDIT: likely tornado on a path to hit the WSMVTV studios in roughly half an hour

Observed tor on the cell making its way towards Nashville. Should reach outskirts around 3:00 AM CST

Starting to get pictures oit of Bowling Green https://twitter.com/WeatherBret/status/1469576353024516096?t=a8wpA4Hj2-vsnM0Lb39aJA&s=19

Mesoscale Discussion 2013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 Areas affected...portions of northern Louisiana into eastern Arkansas...northern Mississippi...western and middle Tennessee...and northern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 558... Valid 110800Z - 110930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 558 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 558, with all severe hazards remaining a concern. A downstream Tornado Watch issuance may be needed across portions of northern Alabama into Middle Tennessee in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An expansive line of storms/QLCS is progressing across Tornado Watch 558, where around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is present amid a moist low-level environment with minimal MLCINH. Given predominantly linear storm modes oriented nearly parallel to the effective bulk-shear vector, damaging wind gusts are expected to be the main threat with the stronger storms. Nonetheless, JAN, GWX and HTX VWPs around 0730Z show long, modestly curved hodographs contributing to 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, so some tornado threat still exists with the more intense circulations embedded in the QLCS. North-south oriented line segments that are aligned more orthogonal to the deep-layer shear vector will have the highest tornado potential. As low-level shear and deep-layer ascent increase across northern Alabama into Middle Tennessee, a downstream Tornado Watch may be needed to address the eastward-expanding severe threat. ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 12/11/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... SHV... LAT...LON 32969071 32409233 32289357 32459387 33019344 33819221 34669098 35298941 36348805 36608653 36638532 36508501 35928495 35348548 34818602 34388664 34048786 33578881 33119049 32969071