cheese007

Already two warnings ongoing. That was quick!

Getting some sun out by the airport

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0054.html 70-50 tor probs on the watch just issued

Decline of the internet forum and all that

In addition to the frighteningly large D3 hatched, the D4 wording is pretty gnarly as well. Already talk of SigTors: ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/TUE... ...DISCUSSION... Latest deterministic and ensemble runs of the medium-range global models continue to depict likelihood of a continuation of potentially substantial severe-weather event across the central Gulf Coast states Tuesday and into Wednesday. This includes a reasonable probability of a regional-type tornado outbreak centered over central and southern Mississippi for Tuesday. As strong upper low/trough over the central and southern Plains region shifts gradually eastward, a belt of very strong mid- and upper-level southwesterlies will likely extend from east Texas across the Tennessee Valley, atop a 60 kt southerly low-level jet. The resulting/anticipated degree of veering and increasing flow with height falls within high-end parameter space for significant tornadoes. In addition, the strong low-level southerlies will persistently advect high theta-e Gulf air (dewpoints averaging in the upper 60s) northward into the pre-frontal warm sector, which -- despite limited heating due to cloud cover and potentially ongoing convection in some areas -- will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates to yield what should prove to be ample CAPE at least as far north as central Mississippi, and later central Alabama. Overall, given very strong shear, the strength of the upper system, and the Gulf warm sector expected inland, a high-end environment appears likely to exist across a geographically-focused area centered over the central Gulf Coast states, supporting potential for a substantial outbreak of severe/supercell storms. Severe weather potential will likely continue into Wednesday, though the upper system appears likely to become somewhat sheared/elongated as the upper low/jet streak shift northeastward across the Ohio Valley, while secondary energy digs southward across the southern Rockies and into northern Mexico. Thus, while an amply moist/unstable environment and still-strong shear will exist across southeastern Alabama/southwestern Georgia/the Florida Panhandle, and possibly expanding during the day into parts of South Carolina supporting continued potential for severe storms, the risk will be lesser than Tuesday's event, and should diminish with time into the evening hours. Still, all-hazards severe weather will be a possibility through the first half of the period across this portion of the Southeast. By Thursday, models begin to diverge in terms of pattern evolution; while the cold front may remain onshore, prior to advancing into the western Atlantic, prospects for severe weather remain questionable, and thus no outlook area will be issued at this time. Once the front moves offshore overnight Thursday, as the upper system shifts eastward, severe-weather potential should end over the Southeast. With large-scale ridging to gradually expand across the U.S. into the weekend, severe weather potential appears minimal a this time. ..Goss.. 03/19/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

Got another D5 enhanced to go along with yesterday's

SEL8 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 48 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Oklahoma Northcentral Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move northeast through this evening, with a risk for large hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts. An isolated report of very large hail will also be possible, in addition to the potential for a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Fort Sill OK to 25 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Bunting

Definitely "feels" like a bad weather day outside. Breezy, sunny, and warm

Outside this subforum but far south AL/MS and the western FL panhandle have a Day 2 ENH with a 10% hatched for sigTors tomorrow (3-18). Something worth watching

https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers/status/1503512398547734529?t=s1Ka5HRLHZ2C46DJBd4qeg&s=19

Big line of storms with hail ranging from quarter to pingpong size hail heading east from DFW

Any chance SPC goes for an ENH upgrade?

Honestly it's hard for me to get excited about any of this since my grad school abolished snow days thanks to Zoom. I understand why so many Northerners hate this stuff now lol

Got a rumble of thunder out by the airport. Pretty much all rain here so far

Meanwhile the cold front is *well* ahead of schedule:

Bigtime hailer went through the northern DFW 'burbs about an hour back

First line petered out and looks like second line taking over

Yeah the line blew up quick that's for sure

50/30 Hail probs on the Severe Tstorm watch just issued. Something to watch

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1494227513358258177?t=NFfFjMmdAIemW5Y4WjJbag&s=19

Was gonna say today may have fizzled but tomorrow looks worth watching

D3 slight issued

Finally got it here. Huge flakes at a fast clip. Gorgeous

Yeah idk how DFW is gonna hit 2-3 inches of sleet and snow

Still all sleet here. Not sure snow makes it at this point...