From my own anecdotal perspective, to date, this has been a colder Oct-Dec period than last year. We used one tank of heating oil so far; last year the first tank lasted until mid-January.
Side note, oil per barrel just hit sub-$45.00; I am hoping with great anticipation for the relaxation in diesel/home heating oil. The $2.67 I just paid, is $.50 higher per gallon than this time last year. What I am unsure of is it demand driven or are refineries running at lower capacity or is it the lag time due to the higher summer/fall oil prices causing the increase in price?