Yeoman

If low-level northeasterly flow holds longer than modeled, you can sustain snow or sleet even as the mid-levels warm, which models often don’t resolve well until you’re inside ~24–36 hours.

Compare 850 winds and 850 0°C line at hour 42 on both runs, plus where the strongest fgen/omega sits. If the better lift shifts north or the 850 flow turns more S/SE, that’s your “colder run, warmer result” culprit.

That’s the classic CAD/overrunning trap: the cold air is stubborn near the ground, but 850–700 mb winds can crank WAA over it. So you don’t dislodge the high, you just ride precipitation over it and introduce a warm nose. The surface map looks invincible, and meanwhile sleet is doing victory laps.

Bye bye snow, hello sleet

NAM too dry? That would be a first..

2/2 and 2/3, right? Next week will be canceled before the first sleet pellet falls.

Zwyts? where is he?

Will you be issuing a Traveler's Advisory?

Hey man - I'm really sorry.. I'm just a little frustrated because my family disowned me after I used my dad's credit card to DoorDash a yardstick from Ace hardware. Now all I'm left with is spending most of my day on the forum trying to make funny posts using sexual innuendo. In all seriousness (which is rare from me), congrats on getting into UVA and all the best

The storm is 3 days away with an unknown outcome, so it hasn't won anything. Do they teach common sense over at UVA? CMC also has a known bias to over-phase in the medium range

left a sock in the dryer - must be stuck to the wall

Nice effort - still too much weenie bias and you’ve turned “the ingredients are on the counter” into “dinner is served” about three days before the oven even preheats.

Small model input errors amplify with time. Even looking a few days into the future, chaos wins by default. That's why until you can control the weather, it will continue to be unpredictable.

Or you could use common sense to know a 1-2 month weather forecast is a joke to begin with.. as long as mindless weenies continue to click on it, who cares?

That's a girthy shaft for DC..

Don't forget to divide by 6

Wow, that was quite a monologue.. I think you got all the DLC content for “Old Man Yells at Cloud” in one post. Look, most of us here have jobs, families, mortgages, and unrepaired stuff around the house too. We’re just capable of talking about things on the internet without assuming every disagreement is the fall of Western civilization. People can use social media without turning into phone-addled cultists, the same way people can enjoy coffee without becoming baristas or watch football without trying to buy a team. If someone having a different opinion online feels like a personal attack, maybe the issue isn’t the forum, maybe it’s Randy. Anyway, thanks for the reality injection. I’ll check for side effects and get back to scrolling memes like a degenerate.

This guy hasn't been playing with a full deck since day one.. ignore and move on

https://8-ball-magic.com/index.php#anchor

Damn this sucks.. I was really looking forward to my weekend being ruined by rain.

Drought? lol.. you mean draught?

Likely Tropospheric ducting, a atmospheric phenomenon that allows VHF and FM radio signals to travel over a thousand miles beyond their normal range.

Oh no.. bad news for the rhododendron. I hope we all survive!

nothing worse than cold and rain

I hope everyone's crops hold up!