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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Seems to be some growing consensus that there will be a significant east-west gradient of precip. Folks west of the Potomac are in way better shape than those of us on the east side,
  2. high risk
    The real push of drier air isn't until Saturday morning. Models disagree about exactly how dry Thursday and Friday will be (some of the CAMs show a fair amount of low clouds, while the GFS is more optimistic. The weekend is then really good, although somewhat higher dew points return Sunday afternoon in advance of the next front. This front passes early Monday, and it's the real deal. 60s for Tuesday on most guidance with lows in the 40s.
  3. high risk
    Convective elements should be rolling through the DC metro area early this evening. While surface-based instability should be negligible, the low-level shear will be very strong with impressive hodographs. I can't rule out a very brief spin-up, or at least a tornado warning or two necessitated by modest storm rotation, although the chances of reaching the ground are likely small unless the surfaced-based instability is slightly higher than progged.
  4. high risk
    Simulated reflectivities Friday don't look particularly impressive, but we'll be in a high PW environment for a chunk of the day, so some over performing rainfall totals are certainly on the table.
  5. high risk
    Exactly. Even when the HRRR initialized it well: It dramatically weakened within only one hour: When this happens, it's a clear indication that the forcing to drive the rain area is largely not being captured in the model. It has no reason to think that heavy, organized rain should be there, and it works to wipe it out.
  6. high risk
    Definitely not handled well at all by the guidance. Closing in on 1” here.
  7. high risk
    Already 1/3 of an inch here, and I haven't even gotten into the "good stuff" for more than a few minutes. This is not how convection usually behaves here after dark, but the shortwave looks great in the guidance. Should be some very impressive totals in north-central and northeast MD overnight.
  8. high risk
    Heavy 11pm shower at my home. The main batch up in PA looks to be headed for northeast MD. We'll see if there is back building on the western flank as it comes south.
  9. high risk
    The best shot at a soaking in the Baltimore area was always round 2, after midnight. Last several runs of the HRRR really like central and northeast MD.
  10. high risk
    That’s my worry for sure, but we still have a shot at something from the evening batch.
  11. high risk
    I'll say this: with that NAM3 focus of heaviest rain, there is some (but not complete) model agreement for northeast MD to get soaked early Sunday
  12. high risk
    Seems to be some modest model agreement in a small MCS (or closer of cells) coming into the DC area in the very late afternoon or early evening hours. Perhaps less certainly for north-central Maryland. Second batch of showers, covering some part of the area, towards sunrise.
  13. high risk
    Agreed. Looks more like a Saturday frontal band now, and while it does appear to have decent moisture and convergence, such that we might maximize its potential, it's not the overrunning soaker we wanted.
  14. high risk
    I understand the SLGT, but it's highly conditional, as several of the CAMs are a shutout for most of the area. It would be a late threat if it materializes, possibly after sunset for the central MD crew.
  15. high risk
    1.15” in southern Howard County
  16. high risk
    Yes, the labeling shows that the product covers today, and it absolutely does include recent precip and accounts for the fact that some areas can achieve flash flood risk more than others (independent of recent precip).
  17. high risk
    Would only take about 1" in an hour to cause problems in parts of the area, per flash flood guidance. That seems achievable, even if storms are progressive.
  18. high risk
    Can confirm that it's absolutely pouring in southern Howard County with a good amount of lightning
  19. high risk
    Also, a secondary cold front is passing through - the leading air of the truly drier air mass. Dew points were still in the upper 60s today.
  20. high risk
    Tomorrow will be better than it has been, but dew points may still be in the mid or upper 60s. A second front goes through Saturday evening (HRRR blows up a batch of showers), and then the real dry air arrives Saturday night.
  21. high risk
    Over 2" at my place a few miles south of yours.
  22. high risk
    This band is the real deal in terms of rainfall. Lightning and thunder too.
  23. high risk
    Worth noting that the model gust products (at least for the American models, not sure about Euro) are showing a gust potential, not necessarily what will mix down. If there is high wind speed in the PBL, and it's ever so slightly unstable at the surface, it will mix a chunk of that momentum to the ground. I'm unconvinced that we'd mix efficiently in the tropical air mass, but I guess we'll see.
  24. high risk
    I'm not too concerned about winds, except for the EF-1 tornadoes on Friday.
  25. high risk
    I get what you're saying, with the seeming growing likelihood of the core synoptic rains shifting west, but there will be a multi-day period of very high PW values over the Mid-Atlantic with waves of scattered convection. There will absolutely be areas that get a ton of rain, and even some that will get a ton of rain before the "main day" on Friday.
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