osfan24
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Everything posted by osfan24
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Was thinking the same. Another run with an almost all snow event.
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A faster changeover and a faster exit. What's not to like?
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NAM actually looks interesting to me. Snow/mix line trajectory seems more NE/SW than E/W. It's still too far west, but it seemed to try to stay all snow for 95 and west. Didn't get it done but was interesting to see that change.
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Looks like 2-4/3-6 for most, depending on location, before a flip to sleet.
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Down to 28 here.
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Where have I seen this scenario play out before.......... This map should be the poster child for the 2020-2021 winter.
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3K is reallllyyy ugly for the area. It snows for an hour or two in most spots. Great consensus we got going on this mix line!
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It comes in hard but it flips fast. It's basically the storm we've had 2 or 3 other times this year. Hopefully, we can keep the mix line south longer, but there is a definite trend on guidance to bring it north and bring it faster.
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Despite how wet they are, SREFs have been sitting at around 3 inches of snow at BWI. Seems like a red flag on big snow hopes to me.
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Yeah it's not much snow but is a very impactful storm. Lots of ice on top of the snow and makes it a 24 hour plus storm. Para looks great and seems to have been pretty steady.
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GFS is warm. Appears to have caved to the warmer solutions. HRRR out there on an island it appears.
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Well it was out of its generally useful range at that point, but it still was never as cold as the other models. Like one of the mets on here said, sometimes it can throw up red flags with temperatures.
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It's a little better but still a bit of a trend happening. Hopefully, we can reverse it at 12z. NAM being so far north with the heaviest axis of snow still is a pretty big red flag, though.
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Oh boy, that was a really rough 6z run. Has the NAM done it again??
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I'm still waiting for my predicted blizzards from the past three storms.
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Take a blend of the GFS and Euro and lock it up.
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Nah, I think I got it.
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Imagine that, someone cares enough to post on a weather message board about snowstorms and actually wants as much as snow they can get in their own yard. The horror.
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What? How did overnight go poorly?
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
osfan24 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, I know I've had enough 1-3/2-4 and then wintry mix/slop storms in the past five years. -
No idea. I'm sure DC had more precip than us today, but there was precip here. It just seemed like it melted in the middle of the day. Maybe the cloud deck wasn't as thick here because the precip wasn't as heavy and that allowed the mid February sun to do some work?
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No ice on the trees at all, but some sleet and freezing rain seemed to start accumulating on the driveway and sidewalk over the past couple hours. Definitely a sheet of ice now.
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Yeah I much prefer sleet to freezing rain. I've had a few periods where echoes got heavier and it turned over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain, but been mostly freezing rain. Although, it really just seems like rain. Not upset by it as I'm not a big freezing rain guy, more just perplexed how areas in Southern MD are way icier than here.
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I'm so confused. I'm way, way northwest from LaPlata and I'm currently watching what little ice I had on my car windshield melting and sliding off the car. There's literally no ice here.
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
osfan24 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Might be about that panic room time lol. We had periods that were called the best since the blizzard of 1996 and another two periods that were the brother of snowmaggedon, plus an upcoming period that was supposed to feature 30+ inches of snow and be cold and snowy. Instead, we've gotten several slop storms to total anywhere from 10-15 inches. What a winter.
