osfan24

NAM is definitely a warning sign with midlevel warming but nothing to panic over yet. If its similar tomorrow, then it’s a red flag and might be doing its usual thing of sniffing that out better than other models.

Seems like a hold then. Sleet line is just southeast of my location which is exactly like it was at 12z.

I was thinking that as well. Kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place with this one. Get the thump but go quicker to mix. Less amped is colder but lose the precip.

Right, kinda reminded me of the GFS run actually.

Seems like most seem to have this general idea.

Just wait until DT’s map comes out. Going to proactively take some Tylenol.

I was at UMCP at the time and don't even remember that one, which is weird. Just looked at an accumulation map for that one and it does look like CP got shafted, which wasn’t unusual. Temps always seemed to run warm there to me. I may vaguely remember this one now. I think it was a really heavy, wet snow that we probably got about eight inches out of but probably got less on paved surfaces and melted very quickly. Just surprised Baltimore got hit so hard and I don’t remember being disappointed I missed out. I guess I had other things on my mind at the time.

I think it’s the way it has unfolded. We haven’t been hit with a big one in a decade. Many in the Baltimore area havent even had a warning criteria in that time. This looks big. The models, especially the best ones, had the center of the state as ground zero for big totals for a few days. Now the rug is being pulled. Had models initially showed a few inches and then beefed up to 6-10 topped with sleet, I think people would be pumped. Maybe we get a trend in our favor. If not, hopefully we finally get clobbered next weekend. This is hopefully just the start of our chances, but you never want to waste your chances, either. You always think there are more, then sometimes later find out there is not.

Would be great to get something simple. Some of the models also have an attempt at something small Thursday.

Crazy idea I know, but maybe GFS is leading he way and the Euro and CMC are trying to catch up?

Wasn’t some of that from the ULL that swung through later? I was in extreme eastern Hoco for that one and we got smoked with like 12ish overnight but then it drizzled and compacted and we lost a ton of snow by the end of the day. Got a tiny bit with the second piece but was a huge disappointment because the wall of snow came in the middle of the night and the ground truth thanks to compaction and melting was like an advisory level snowfall by the afternoon.

Those still exist? Lol

Somehow manage to stay all snow on GFS. Actually surprised totals aren’t higher with the fluff and duration. Snows on some for 36ish hours. Guess the colder solution also packs less of a punch but seems like a worthy trade-off.

I’ll admit I'm annoyed areas northeast of us are now the hammer zone, but that’s probably being pumped up by outlier models.

No doubt. Praying it is right but I know better. Just have to hope the Euro is wrong with the warm nose. Hopefully, the NAM can help us figuring TThat out as we get closer.

Yeah, I mean the trends today have obviously not been great but we are still three full days from onset and new data will feed into the models tonight. It’s also clear that none of them seem to have all the pieces exactly figured out yet. I can’t imagine folks coming this far and throwing in the towel already.

Sure, maybe it’s about to lead the way for the first time ever and technically it’s another piece of guidance, but no one ever even used to post this model back in the day and I have always thought it was just posted something to look at after the NAM while we wait for the GFS. I never take it seriously.

Just a hunch but the steady as can be and top rated Euro AI is probably not caving to the awful Icon. Speaking of great models, let’s see what the GFS cooks up this run.

Ha, we actually did get less than Chicago that run. Good thing it’s the Icon.

Can someone smarter than me explain why the transfer to the coast isn’t happening sooner like we see in our HECS? You have blocking/50-50 low plus a strong arctic high. Doesn’t add up to me.

Seems like a mixture of huge hits and whiffs. I wonder if the huge hits mix though.

The GFS is garbage so certainly taking it with a grain of salt but CMC being too amped is also something it likes to do. Just show me the Euro

Would like to see the qpf start creeping up now. 1.2ish during a 30 hour snowstorm. It’s cool but our greats would have twice that in 30 hrs, maybe even more lol.

Yep, this is what we want to continue to trend toward. Maybe throw in a stall off OCMD for fun.

Need to get the Tennessee to Myrtle or OBX transfer