jbenedet

She ain’t done going north. Question is, how far she go…

I know, I know it’s just the CMC But. it looks a lot like the trending in the respected EPS… Same behavior… very similar look Look less at the SLP and more at the long wave features….

The resolving of long wave features that the EPS and GEFS typically can reliably provide inside 10 days was absent. That was the rug pull. In just 6 runs inside 6 days the EPS is looking completely different in synoptic evolution. The lead wave is a side show. Everything moving to the trailing shortwave for us in the east.

Wrong take. Anyway….I said my piece. We watch 12z

EC AIFS definitely saying balance is toward warmer solution in the east from here. Just seeing the low level cold anoms increase in the central CONUS and greatly relative to the east coast is pretty telling.

EC AIFS saying “what cold” in the east with all that cold to back into in the central conus. wow.

I’m not sure it’s going warmer but I think that risk is higher than colder from here. I folded and now I’m wait and see..

Probably should be noted that a high amplitude 7 to 8 MJO progression in late January around the time of a strong shortwave is the thing forecasting nightmares are made of.

I get that. The proximity of the phases and guidance didn’t help here. 7 is one of our warmest in Jan, and the wave progression was 7 to 8 around go time. I bit on it bc the synoptic look across major guidance matched 8, but it’s all trended away from that quickly.

No I’m watching through this morning. Need to see latest data.

My forecast hinged on MJO 8 type synoptic look and the guidance has completely lost that in 36 hours and I’m seeing much more of a 7 synoptic look. The specific MJO guidance has also changed…

Yup. Gotta know when to fold em.

The mid level height look is completely different from 36 hours ago on major guidance.

This is MJO phase 7. Just need surface temps to respond in kind. We stick a +NAO here and no stopping the mid level height build in the east. The EC AIFS also has the main show trending to the trailing shortwave which is also when our 1040 surface high is yielding… This could get a lot warmer. Nuts.

That primary holding on in Ontario on the EC AIFS is looking MJO 7 and can definitely get a lot warmer from there if legit. Pretty crazy…

The huge shift of mid levels on the GEFS in like 4 runs has me shook. My take is we are having major head fakes given the MJO progression uncertainty as 7 is AN in the east with +NAO tendency, but 8 is sig BN with -NAO tendency. The guidance has been waffling on the progression for days. First was sitting in 7; then quick progression to 8; now I see a split— some showing sticking in 7, others quick to 8… It’s now that all of the latest guidance is looking a lot more like an MJO 7 synoptic pattern. The crazy part about that is if we do settle in 7, I believe this continues further north. That primary on the EC AIFS in Ontario is a shade of how much more this could trend…warmer…. I’ll make a call later this morning… Should have enough data to see which way this will break.

Can’t wait for the model indigestion from this impending -NAO.

Overnight - The EC-AIFS has trended further south but also a lot more amped. the other major guidance has trended north and more amped. There’s been an improved consensus. I think it’s most telling to see the EC-AIFS amp up but that doesn’t translate to a track further north. This is important. I like the 6z EC-AIFS - its current depiction and QPF as a baseline from here.

Hmmm…

Yea that’s where I’m at.

As much as I dislike DT… Seeing a 994 low off the east coast doesn’t get ya excited but if the delta is with a 1040+ mb arctic high less than 500 miles away……. It’s a big dawg.

No. I have said I80 south is in line for the heavy snows. I’m sticking to that. Basically NYC/LI south. definitely stay very interested in southern coast, out to south coast MA

You are in a spot worth watching for something more than advisory. But odds go way down just north of you imo. Watch the mid level height field compress out of New Brunswick over time; with more of a -NAO tapestry in the east.

More ridging but stronger surface high and positive tilt. I think the trend on overnight guidance was to load up this already-explosive setup by tightening the delta between the arctic and the tropics.

The surface high is intensifying over our heads on guidance. I’d call it Canadian but it’s over our head throughout. Filling in for Quebec.. Great news for our southern neighbors who love snow