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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Overnight - The EC-AIFS has trended further south but also a lot more amped. the other major guidance has trended north and more amped. There’s been an improved consensus. I think it’s most telling to see the EC-AIFS amp up but that doesn’t translate to a track further north. This is important. I like the 6z EC-AIFS - its current depiction and QPF as a baseline from here.
  2. jbenedet
    Hmmm…
  3. jbenedet
    Yea that’s where I’m at.
  4. jbenedet
    As much as I dislike DT… Seeing a 994 low off the east coast doesn’t get ya excited but if the delta is with a 1040+ mb arctic high less than 500 miles away……. It’s a big dawg.
  5. jbenedet
    No. I have said I80 south is in line for the heavy snows. I’m sticking to that. Basically NYC/LI south. definitely stay very interested in southern coast, out to south coast MA
  6. jbenedet
    You are in a spot worth watching for something more than advisory. But odds go way down just north of you imo. Watch the mid level height field compress out of New Brunswick over time; with more of a -NAO tapestry in the east.
  7. jbenedet
    More ridging but stronger surface high and positive tilt. I think the trend on overnight guidance was to load up this already-explosive setup by tightening the delta between the arctic and the tropics.
  8. jbenedet
    The surface high is intensifying over our heads on guidance. I’d call it Canadian but it’s over our head throughout. Filling in for Quebec.. Great news for our southern neighbors who love snow
  9. jbenedet
    Positive trade off to eliminate the daily black ice risk. Too much of this in December and January. Cities could do more, but they don’t.
  10. jbenedet
    The phasing will mean you crush mid Atlantic on the east coast with mid levels but that whole long wave trough development is severely positively tilted in the east. It’s a spin up with limited latitude gain.
  11. jbenedet
    This looking more and more like a crusher for ACY, DC, Baltimore. There is a -NAO developing around the time this makes it to the east coast, so a slower track and more phasing are likely than currently modeled. That said I don’t think that portends a big latitude gain.
  12. jbenedet
    Zzzzzz 1982-1983 was a record setting EL Nino. AN in the north; very warm winter. Meanwhile Boston running -5 in a moderate La Niña….
  13. jbenedet
    I guess you all miss the verification scores of the EPS/GEFS vs the ops at this lead time…it’s not even close.
  14. jbenedet
    You need a new shtick. I was all over this storm.
  15. jbenedet
    yes Richmond VA as ground zero… 5 days, but this is not a complex setup. No multiple shortwaves or potential phasing of streams type variability. I’m seeing most of the forecast is about a significant arctic airmass… the shortwave will ride the boundary… That’s it. I think we gain a day or two of guidance accuracy given the lack of complexity here.
  16. jbenedet
    To be sure, I thought the axis of heaviest precip would be closer to I80 a few days ago. Now that’s the margin to be out of this completely already, imo. Trend hasn’t been good on a “north trend” if you zoom out to few days ago.
  17. jbenedet
    Hopes and dreams.
  18. jbenedet
    In terms of lead time I’d normally agree with you. But this is as suppressive a look you can get based on airmass ( without mid level confluence). We are filling in for Canada this weekend.
  19. jbenedet
    You don’t take the op runs over the EPS /GEFS at this stage. Inside day 4 you might start weighing them similarly.
  20. jbenedet
    North of I80 in PA is out of the game on the weekend threat.
  21. jbenedet
  22. jbenedet
    Yea timed with peak winter climo as well.
  23. jbenedet
    Good luck on that…
  24. jbenedet
    NNE already with high odds of very cold and very dry after today through month end imo. I’m more inclined to include that region to pike - north than not, at this point. But will give that a few more days of model runs…
  25. jbenedet
    Good thing having the snow cover around before that serious freeze next weekend…Oof. Insulate the basement/pipes and protect the plant roots…
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