jbenedet

Temperatures busting low on guidance today. 37/35 @ PSM. 40's possible as we dry out.

These clown maps are gonna cause snow weenie rage in SNE. This bump north isn’t coming with better dynamics; it’s with a much weaker surface high and CP airmass has all but vanished. last 10 runs of GFS - check out Canada I didn’t think that would happen… Result is less suppressed but still very weak storm, and more ptype/low ratio issues. Mostly the latter.

GEFS type solution makes the most sense. Currently MJO warm phase state and PNA neutral and ++NAO but cold and suppression is still fighting very strong over northeast and SE Canada. Very El Niño esque. Can’t build a ripping WAR for shit. Now, for this disturbance, jack up the PNA ridge allowing that CP airmass and UL height field to dip south over New England and western Atlantic and it’s major suppression. This is further compounded by the fact that there’s very limited baroclonity in the airmass which the disturbance originates, no countervailing forcing to build the downstream UL height field.

About a coating here, with flurries now.

Weak forcing. This won’t stack well. Use lower ratios then 10:1, until/unless see improved dynamics.

Looks like this is racing through on radar. western CT over in under an hr HRRR showing the same. Wondering if I’ll see even a flake here.

Dislike this map south of 84. Adding total qpf for marginal temps and scattered light precip is a big sell in something like this.

commuting sure. That’s timing and treating. south of the pike I’d cut BOX map in half. Leave the rest. I’d tack on an inch to their map in the berks and extreme NW CT. But many south of 84 won’t see more than a dusting/trace. Just don’t see the precip for it.

Very shallow cold; very weak disturbance—> no isentropic lift. Looks like a non-event south of the pike; east of the berks.

Sell. This is the radar output. Bottom half of that map won’t even see a coating.

No. It's a case of "I'm an imbecile and didn't look at surrounding obs." Time well wasted. But don't worry. You're in great company!

Since according to the snow weenie forum, the wundergound numbers I'm posting are specious: per 12:50 obs at NWS. ASH: 37 CON:35 DAW: 37 GFY clowns https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/nh/portsmouth

+5 We take. Cheers.

Just in case you didn't know; blogspot is the medium you use when you're still in highschool. Embarrassing.

November - wrong. December - wrong. January - wrong. @40/70 Benchmark But read my free $hit at blogspot. Can't forecast for $hit but don't worry he'll be sure to tell you he's wrong. You can count on that. What a service.

What is it a week before you tell us all how you effed up January too? Just quit guy. It's pathetic.

Next week looks like has mid atlantic written all over it. Only thing better than a toaster is watching mid atlantic take SNE weenie's snow.

Man what a beautiful day out today. Shorts and sweatshirt, NH style.

PSM: 33 Nice.

Wunderground updates every 10/15min. NWS temps will follow if they coincide with station location. https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/nh/portsmouth

You guys are amazing. Hmmm - let's read what our machine is saying today. It's wrong today in a stable atmosphere; 6 hours out - BUT it should be very accurate tomorrow and even more accurate when there's a storm. VERY reliable.

I'm talking about today. Like right now. Read the damn timestamp.

Even the cold-biased GFS is warmer than the NAM. PSM current: 30F Good luck

Okay. Do 15z. PSM 27. It's about 5 degrees too cold. Has a high here of 33. PSM will push 40 today.

NAM is tracking way too cold. Shocker. HRRR even worse. PSM is already 26.