Chris78

Heights are higher out in front through 96.

Ukie looks fine to me

 Looks like a region wide 2 to 4" event.

@yoda

Do you have the precip totals from the ukie?

6 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

The late day EURO comes out when?


.

Not sure i like having the 6z and 18z Euro. I liked having all night to enjoy happy hour before the Euro crushes all my hopes and dreams..lol

7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Southern VA/Northern NC jackpot again?

Either someone down there has been doing their snow dance or the snow gods are pissed at Ji

Looks like a region wide 1-3/2-4" event.  Ill take that any day. 

Not a bad look.

Even the Euro gets snow into Illinois Indiana and Ohio and moving east. It's dampening somewhat as it moves east but I think that's a good sign to atleast get a light event for the area.

There was only a handful of shutouts on the Eps.  Most were in the .5 - 2" range. Only a handful that had 4" plus. Pretty good agreement for a light event. 

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yogi says the UKIE track looks fine... it's a weak SLP though FWIW 

120 it's in NW MS and 144 it's 200 miles or so off the coast of the VA/NC border

Is that an improvement over 12z?

Fv3 has snow into the area prior to noon on Saturday.

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

One thing I like about this is the precip shield is much bigger than the dec 9.

Drops 1" plus of liquid across the area

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc didn't close off the ridge at all. That's a big difference compared to other guidance 

Cmc ups the GFS with 40+ straight hours of snow.

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'd lock this up right now.  No more gambling for a better solution.   10 inches of snow aint nothing to sneeze at

Yes please lol. Where do I sign.?? region wide 6 -10 in. Event. 

You could see early on the heights were higher out in front.  The low was a bit weaker but less confluence over new England made the difference.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hesitate to ask this because ya might troll me for the rest of the season, but because I'm still learning, real question: Have there been winters where there was TOO much blocking? (so that everything was far south? I mean I couldn't tell whether you were serious about that, lol)

Yes there can be. That's why 2009/2010 was epic down here and the North East missed out on some of the action. If it's too strong it could force the storm track through south/north carolina.

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Epic patterns are severely overrated.  Too much of a good thing is rarely ever a good thing. 

Congrats atlanta

GEFS looks more juiced up at 18z compared to 12z.

Bulleye for precip is just south of dc but I like where were sitting right now. 

We've come a long way in just the last 3 days , tracking a medium range threat and a good long range look. All major models show atleast some snow with some showing a big hit. 

Feels alot better than a week ago lol

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Can't tell how much the thump is though

Just going off of ncep it looks like around .5 liquid prior to flipping. Using the 850's

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

::Shudder::

Give me the FV3 progression any day of the week over the regular GFS. Though I have a hard time believing the LP gets that far north in the setup before redevelopment. 

I agree 100%. That's a real nice Front end thump before we flip.

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol while SNE gets 1 to 2 feet

Chances of this being the final outcome are slim to none but In these set ups we ussually end up high and dry. I Think the GFS tends to spread out precip the further you go out in time. As depicted It would be a kick below the waist lol.

Just now, BristowWx said:

I’ll take it.  Not proud 

In reality , ground truth would be alot worse than depicted  I would imagine around these parts.

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Maestro wondered about how we can get little while south and north get a lot. Lol

After the past month if it goes down like the 00z it's going to be very ugly in here

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That is a snow look for sure.  But what will 144 show?

NS is running interference 

Heights are a little lower out in front. We are going to need a stronger vort to have the same results as 18z.