Chris78

Great sign to see higher snow totals in the Ohio valley. The precip is hanging on longer as it moves east. Should help us with the WAA snow.

Here's the 12z and 18z to compare.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

With this look you would think "we can't miss" lol

Looks a lot like the GFS lol

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

To slightly polish the turd that is the 12z GFS, during the WAA snows, the DGZ is quite deep and there is some weak/modest lift within it.  Ratios should be a bit better than 10:1 if this were to verify.  

At this point my hope is that the Waa can juice up some to get a wide spread 2 to 4 / 3 to 5 inch event. With good ratios I think it's definitely possible.

Imho, considering what the longer range looked like just a week ago I am feeling real good about a 1-3/2-4 inch deal.  Im hoping we can juice up the Waa snow a little.

This is  just an appetizer to the pattern we have setting up for the next 4 to 6 weeks. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I would sign off on that immediately.  

2 -6" across the area. (A little more to the south.)

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thats a perfect match of the winter to this point for my yard lol. Not sure I would have even looked at the NAM on my own at this range. At this point I am pretty laser focused on the EURO and GFS op runs.

I agree not to take the nam seriously. I just hate seeing any model spit out the way we would totally fail in this situation.

Good thing the NAM stinks at range lol.

NAM is the worst case scenario.  Basically skunked with snow north and south of us.

We want to avoid what the nam is advertising. WAA snows into pa. We're left hoping the coastal gets us.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

dont look at CMC 240

1993 lol

Both the cmc and GFS have  the coastal low in the same place. The cmc has more precip to the NW. 

I think the GFS was better all around. It held the waa snow together a little better and then had the coastal low closer to the coast.

16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals.  2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD.  1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore.   Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of RIC by 90H.  All snow everywhere north/west of that.

eta:  H96 at 12z had the 2" line SW of DC so an improvement for NOVA/DC/Balt.

How far north is the. 25" qpf line?

Fv3 falling in line with everything else

 Now has. 25  in northern md to .50 south of DC. 

I haven't been too impressed so far with it. Seems to be out on an island at times.

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Icon fringes the northern folks

That's the 12z

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Weather Models is pretty quick with the ICON.

That's a nice bump from it's previous runs

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That's .19 qpf into mid 20's temps. After the start to winter I would be thrilled with that as our welcome back. Oh it's the 81-84 hour nam as well

Yep. That's a 1 to 3 inch event during the day  on Saturday.  With potentially more to come. 

15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Pretty significant drop from yesterday 12z when the 0.5 line was up near PA but still keeps us in the game for a light/moderate event. 

I like that the .25 line is well up, into pa. Gives us some breathing room for atleast a minor event.

The OP GFS  is more south compared to the mean on the GEFS. The FV3 would be on the northern side of the esembles.

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty big difference in the how amped the system is as well. The Euro and GFS are almost identical in the HP placement and strength. The Euro has a more amped shortwave.

The weaker SS definitely doesn't help. I was looking more at the lobe that  drops down into New England at the worst possible time. The better runs had at further north or further west .

I know there's some doom and gloom this morning but the precip that slides just south of us is very impressive. As long as we Do Not lose ground to the south over the next few days I think we'll be ok. If we get out normal north bump over the final 36 hours it would be a real nice event. The 12/9 Event had the northern extent in southern va at one point and moved significantly north over the last 36 hours. @psuhoffman  always talks about not losing to much ground to the south prior to the eventual north trend and I think this may be the case here.

I think the biggest issue is the confluence pressing down from the North. All 6z model runs had it further south than there 0z runs. In my opinion That's the least accurate part of the equation this far out in time. 

9 minutes ago, Interstate said:

No one mentioned the FV3 this morning. Is it still the outliner being super amped?  I see TT is still catching up last night run. 

Looks better for DC compared to 0z. Still mixes but less. It's a little colder. Has most areas in the .50+ for precip.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It takes 30 hours to fall. Lol. Not heavy rates. Might be the longest duration 6" storm i've seen.

Not sure what to think about that. I would call BS  but the GFS has shown the same also..lol

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Through 123, 0.5” QPF is up near Baltimore running E/W.  Narrow band of 0.75”+ just north of RIC and just south of EZF.  

Is that better than 12z?