Chris78

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS and CMC say no VD storm and have the same system with a stale airmass 2 days later. 

Gfs and gem let confluence win out initially. That's the last worry on my mind lol. This is probably the best look weve had so far this winter.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

As long as we can time a slow moving ULL to turn the corner right into transient confluence we're good. Can't really think of anything that can go wrong. 

Looks like to much of a good thing on the gem with confluence pressing down and squashing the storm. Honestly it feels pretty good talking about too much confluence rather  than never ending storm tracks to our nw. Im certainly not worried at this point that if there is an actual storm that its a southern slider.

GFS ,Icon and Gem all have a bowling ball  getting ready to traverse the deep south in about 4 days.

Gfs wants to try again a couple days later.

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Tpv se of hudson that becomes a 50/50 and a closed low tracking the deep south. 

If that's right it's a pretty big block. Could be too much. We'll know in 3 days or so.

Ill take my chances with that look. It definitely gives us wiggleroom. 

Gfs will probably be a southern slider but love the look a week out. With the gfs modeling the cold push too strong out in time im good with this.

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Best 6 hr panel 

 

Euro dumps 1/2" of qpf in 3 hrs tomorrow morning over north central Md. A good bit of that with 850s around 0 or just below . Surface temps range from 34 -38 in these areas . A bit warm but with rates u never know.  I can see Catoctins doing pretty well verbatim. 

I might have to drive the 3 miles to the top of route 77 to see whats going on tomorrow morning.My house is about 750 ft in elevation. Top of 77 is around 1200 ft.

Theres been times over the years ive left thurmont and its raining,  coming over the catoctins theres several inches then back to rain when I get into Smithsburg. 

That's a great look for a week out. With every cold shot backing off as we close in we need congrats Atlanta to have a shot.

21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Western crew better get there shovels out of storage if the Nam is correct 

Gives me 4 inches in a 3 hour period. That would be something.

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Just for fun ( while I wait for this customer to allow me to come in for a service call . Anything earlier then 10am is too early for her lol). 

Checkout this hourly snowfall rate tomorrow morning 

 

Damn. The name twins give my house 3 inches between 7 am and 10 am tomorrow. The herpderps also but to a lesser extent. No other model has it so im sure its happening lol.

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Just for fun ( while I wait for this customer to allow me to come in for a service call . Anything earlier then 10am is too early for her lol). 

Checkout this hourly snowfall rate tomorrow morning 

 

That's right on top of me. Lol. Believe it when I see it. Would be a nice surprise.

Sorry to hear that Mappy. Sending positive thoughts and prayers your way.

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's an awesome pic. Your house could be used for post cards. Beautiful house. 

Im ussually optimistic and generally dont look past about 10 days but ive resigned myself to the fact that my yard isnt going to see anymore snow this winter.

Ive lived in smithsburg for about 20 years now and we have not had a winter this snowless.

Each and every time the models give us a glimmer of hope it quickly turns into a flaming pile of dog s#*t.  It Is what it is this year.

I am about 5 miles from the pa border with an elevation of around 750ft and im at 5" for the season.

That would be the lowest seasonal total for me since moving here.

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Did we expect this to be any different than any other event this season? I warned 3 days ago the euro and eps would suck everyone back in then play Dr No and crush hopes.  

At some point law of,averages would say something breaks our way.

Icon and GFS both weak sauce tonight.

Oveckin with 3 goals in the last 5 minutes. 

2 away from 700.

I'll be at the game on Saturday. Would be cool to see 700 in person. 

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, if everything works right. If I had to guess right now I'd say 1-3" west of 95. There's potential for 3-6 or even more but we are who we think we are. 

"And we let them off the hook"

Dennis Green

36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My girl, who is Colombia and is a serious Shakira fanatic, can't understand this country when it comes to being so puritan.  Like her floor was on the floor all day today reading about the vapors and pearl clutching that went on about the half time show.   It's ridiculous.  

Unfortunately people take things and themselves too seriously. 

I used to go to several redskins games each year and it certainly isnt family holsum entertainment. No way would I ever take my 9 year old and 5 year old to an NFL game. The fighting , vulgarity and cruedness that goes on in the stands in crazy. Dont get me wrong I dont mind it, but,I certainly wouldnt want my kids to witness what ive seen and heard at fedex field. 

Getting the boundary far enough south after the friday storm will seal our fate for Sunday I think.

A stronger Friday storm should help with that. 

Just now, yoda said:

Quick frozen to rain

Extendes nam?? Dgex lol

20 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol basically no accumulation unless you are in N MD

Dont worry. Rain to snow works well around here.  

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 500MB looks pretty good, however, at Day 6....

So its just too warm? Shows rain? 

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

18z WB EPS has only 2 out of 50 Members with any snow south of the Mason Dixon line which goes through Friday.

That's definitely deflating.  Im sure the GEFS will trend towards the eps over the next couple of runs lol

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Until the King is on board with something  under 10 days I am not biting.

The 12 z euro was close