Chris78

With an upstairs look like this I would of thought the surface would of been little better.

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Now at 366 on GEFS I can see a better look than 60 hours earlier.  

Absolutely.  This map tells me there plenty of cold air to tap. If we continue to get the storm tracks we've been getting we will be in good shape. I don't want or need vodka cold. I just want it cold enough to snow lol. With this look the storm track should be close to our area.

I think we have all seen what happens when we get extreme cold into our area. ( congrats North Carolina.)

3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

We are all jonesing for something to track... D9 look doable but difficult and probably frustrating.  Seems models are picking up on a D12-14 signal that I think has better potential....

Yes Day 9 would be great but I think we are going to have to wait to the 20th before we start have a real shot at something.

Edit : I should say 16th to 20th.

Just now, poolz1 said:

384 op run....but probably indicative of some of the looks we will start seeing as things evolve over the next week or so.

I wish there was a love button on here lol.

That looks okay

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs says to keep an eye on d10ish. Looks better than the 12z run. 

I thought the end of the Run looked alot better. Lost the AN heights in the east. Temps look normal which is workable for Jan.

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

The weeklies 45 day snowfall map is NSFW.  

Do u have the 45 day snowfall mean from all 51 members?

Atleast we are starting to get some looks in the LR.  I hope that implies we are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

Edit : Ninjaed by @Bob ChiII

Here's a good visual of the past  2 runs of the GEFS at the same time stamp. The ridge in the east is much more muted. Hopefully this trend continues over the next few days.

I'm just so ready to get out of this stinking shut out pattern.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One thing that is troubling is even when the trough axis is right over us the heights are still above normal. 

This is what I was pointing out after the 12z run. 

If you loop the past runs of the GEFS though the above normal heights are becoming muted. That makes more sense with the look in the HL.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

My guess is it's probably not a stable ridge as much as just AN heights on average as a series of fronts push through. Meaning we oscillate between ridges and troughs during the d10-15 but AN heights are more common during the period. Just a wag 

I'm just so ready to get rid of this shutout pattern. I'm not asking for perfection lol. Just a chance at a small event would be nice at this point.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

I guess the GEFS look in the 10 to 16 isn't a shut out pattern?  Atleast not in January. I'm assuming in December it would of been.

5 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

You’d think given the look in the high latitudes that there would be a better height reflection in the east but who knows this year.  So incredibly frustrating.

The east ridge has been showing up on the last several GEFS runs

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

No it still flips the Pacific around day 10. Beautiful epo ridge. But it pops a huge SE ridge as a system comes into the SW. That's unusual for a split flow with blocking.  If we get that pattern and a ridge sticks in the east anyways I'm throwing my hands up and saying we're cursed and it's the Debs who are picky about snows fault. They angered the snow gods and now they smite us. 

Yep. Tough sledding this year for whatever reason. You would think we would have negative departures in regards to temps with the HL blocking. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Amazing continuity run to run and from op to ensembles on gfs. The ridge in the east day 15 is "annoying" given the near perfect look with the epo, ao, nao but I have to suspect it's overdone or short lived given that look. Everything screams there should be a trough in the east there. 

That's what I was wondering. The look out west is ok. Why the ridge in the east?

We're losing the GEFS. Certainly not a cold look at the end.

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One thing i think the eps could be getting wrong is the ao/nao. I do question a strong +ao establishing in 10 days. It very well could end up much better than the eps panels suggest. It wont save the pac but it would provide a crack in the shutout wall currently in place. We'll know on way or the other fairly quickly and not weeks down the line 

We are putting our hopes on extrapolating beyond 360 hours....a very bad sign January is cooked and our winter will hinge on getting one or two events. Hopefully epic

All signs point to hoping February is epic.

I don't think most people expected this, I know I didn't.... sucks  

GEPS  looks great. I just looked back at the past 2 days of GEFS runs. It's been really consistant. Either the eps or GEFS is going to have to blink over the next few days.

39 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I fully expect in the next day or two the post will be...GEFS just caved to the EPS. These movies always show their hand

It didn't even take a day or two...lol

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Meh... workable

Looks ok to me. Hints at an active SS as well.

20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I forgot what a H north of us with SLP nearby looks like.  Trough went negative too quickly therefore the cut to Chicago.  Certainly potential with this one.  

I agree. A stout high to the NW does wonders. Has potential. 

Normally this look would invoke excitement with the h5 pass in the heart of winter. Not in the winter of 18/19.

Bruce Allen must have 9 lives. Don't see how he's still around after this season but apparently his job is safe. Too bad you can't fire the owner. Snyder is one of the worst owners in football. Can't believe what he has done to this franchise over the past 20 years. I used to go to 5 games each season. My friend had season tickets for years and then gave them up after they raised his ticket prices by 40% after the 2012 RG3 season. Sadly I don't miss going at all and completely understand  why there attendance is under 60k per game. The overall game day experience isn't good and neither is the product they put on the field lol.

Just now, losetoa6 said:

I'm shocked that many show something.  Alot of them aren't much but anything at this point would be a win lol

27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

20/22 Gefs members say it's going to snow for the 1/3 threat . Jumpers can step back from the ledge lol

Can u post them please?