Chris78

This is probably more realistic... Unfortunately..lol

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

3k NAM snow map is pitiful. 

It's a joke. I think the ferrier and Snow  depth maps look much more accurate and realistic though. Unfortunately there not nearly as exciting. Lol

Should be interesting to see which model is more correct between the GFS and Euro. That's a big difference between the models for the time frame of 7am - 3pm tomorrow. I think it just really shows how much a marginal set up this is with  just 1 to 2 degrees difference between the 2 models for a majority of the storm.

GFS and Cmc both took a step back at 00z unfortunately.

Both are a couple degrees warmer throughout.

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're starting Dec with the best pattern since 09 if the models have it right. It's been forever. Dec 2010 had an incredible block but it was a nina and we had one of the worst busts I've ever experienced. Boxing day storm literally ruined Christmas day for me. Lol. Weather is serious shizzle 

Dec. 2010. Absolute gut punch.

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z Euro has precip onset just after 12z Thursday.  A few hours of mix for the cities before changeover to rain.  Surface temps start at 34 but cool to 32 during the morning hours before starting to warm up.  Favored areas stay below freezing through 00z Friday.  Temps start crashing by 9z Friday and a potential flip back over to frozen as it ends (ha, we do so well with that around here).  

10:1 snowfall maps have the 2” line just SE of DC and 3” running through the city.  While I do think we see a period of frozen precip, I don’t think we accumulate at all.  I think the favored areas could see a few inches of sleet/snow.  Just my guess at the moment.

How does it compare to the 12z Euro? Take a step Back? Improve?

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I guess there is a reason they call the 18Z the Happy Hour Run.

Does Weatherbell snow maps still include sleet and freezing rain as snow?

I would assume it does looking at that?

The temps on the icon and fv3 are just crazy for Thursday.  Keeps NW areas below freezing the entire day. Kind of HARD to believe for November 15th.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

ICON calculates snow ratios directly in the model, so what’s shown on TT is not using a post-processing algorithm.  It’s still not going to snow 8”.

That makes sense. I didn't know that. Thanks for the info.

Id be shocked if it even snowed 1" but id gladly take it...lol 

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'll take the 18z ICON and a side of 18z FV3 to go

Though we already know the snow charts suck lol

The icon snow maps atleast match up to the surface precip type and temp maps. Actually I noticed last winter that the icon snow maps were the most conservative and reasonable lol.

The Fv3 isn't even close to reality.

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the NA pattern has been great since early October to build and maintain snowcover in Canada. No sign of the persistent ridging in the west letting up either so no Pac air invasion into Canada over the next several weeks. 

There's really nothing going on to complain or worry about so far this fall. We haven't had an acceptable December since 2013. I'm pretty sick of wasting the first 6 weeks of met winter

I think our December luck will change this year if we can keep this look heading into next month.

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Too bad the snow map algo is whacked and magically turns cold rain into snow. I'll enjoy the sleet at onset tho

Yes I noticed that. It's way way off. Even for clown maps it's really misleading.

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

That sure would have been a fun run 3 or 4 weeks from now. As it is...it was close to a frozen event for far NW areas


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Definitely interesting.  Climo is s b$%ch this time of year. Temps are close for Thursday morning for the nw areas.

Wow! 

A Neg NAO. I'll  believe it when I see it. But we can dream....

Wrap around always works out well for us...lol

GFS!

Gotta love the Canadian!

Redskins offense is pathetic.

4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Looks like around  8 days from now, we have some blocking setting up and a pretty good coastal developing. Right now, it's a close meteorological miss. I love chasing ghosts!

Look at the ridge out west. Very impressive. It's low probability but still to have something close in the first half of November is rare.

I know it's low probability but the 12th - 14th time frame looks interesting. Both the GFS and it's twin have had a system pass south of us The past several runs. Alot of cold air around for this early. Definitely low chances but something to watch.

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

This team is unwatchable

There awful!

22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

BWI: 28.5
DCA:19.5
IAD:27.5
RIC:14.5

SBY: 11.5

Bonus:

KOKV: 42.5

You and I are super close on guesses. I hope were both wrong and way under.

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t want people to see my final answer. I also need to outflank the competition. 

Poor Eastern Shore  

Lol. No OC blizzards this year.

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Placeholder/Early Thoughts

BWI: 79.7"

DCA: 61.1"

IAD: 83.8"

RIC: 68.4"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 1.3"

Go big or go home lol. I hope your the winner...lol I assume your being sarcastic but man What a winter if your close to being right...lol

BWI : 26.7

DCA : 18.4

IAD :  28.6

RIC : 14.9

Tie Breaker - SBY: 12.4

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

I like the trade by the Redskins... Ha Ha Clinton-Dix from the Packers for a 2019 4th round draft pick... should shore up the safety position some 

Does he play wide receiver also lol.