Chris78

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're getting pretty good consolidation now with the track/evolution and we're still right on the edge of the good stuff. Like PSU said, that's not a bad place to be. If this was 72 hours out I would be pretty pessimistic. We literally only need a 90 mile shift now and we're both in warning level snowfall. IMHO- it does seem like a miss or scrape south is the most likely outcome but can't throw in the towel yet at all. We're 48-72 hours before knowing if we're in or out of the heavy stuff. 

If it goes down the way models have it now , talk about a gut punch lol.  

All of the OP runs are definitely deflating but I was pleasantly surprised at how many close hits there were on the eps. I just got a chance to run through the individual members and there is definitely some big hits in there .

The cmc actually drops in the NS and fazed in. 

The 0z GFS is a compromise between the 18z and 12z

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is kind of me as well. Speaking of football I cant beleive I am watching butt fumble Sanchez run my beloved Skins offense. 

Frustrating. This season is going down in flames fast!

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I am more worried about rain now and too far NW as are some others.  that was a huge jump in 6 hours 6 days out.  

Tomorrow will be the bullseye  by Thursday it will be Albany lol

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I am more worried about rain now and too far NW as are some others.  that was a huge jump in 6 hours 6 days out.  

Nice hit!

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z CMC major hit

I'm huggin that for now... lol

Icon takes a great track but it takes so long to get here it rains.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...so that could sink us or save us--mercy. May as well flip a coin, lol (but let me guess...this could very well flip and back and forth on modeling over the next few days?) And if we end up on the losing side of this--I suppose this is a lesson in how just one small thing in the timing can ruin a snow chance...wow.

Nothing is a guarantee but if what we need is weaker confluence from 6 days out I'm fine with that.

I love the strength and juice of the southern stream. With enough cold air around that's ussually a winning combo around here.

Here's a good visual of the difference between the GFS and F3 for the NS. I think this shows how a little difference goes a long way 

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It needs to be behind the southern shortwave for any interaction. That's not happening. 

My hope is it doesn't exist or is much weaker and farther north. Everything is there for a good hit. Just need the NS to play nice.

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yep. That trailing lobe rotating down digs more this run and is the crusher. With all the vortices rotating around up top, its going to be awhile before the models have a decent handle on the evolution and converge on a solution. Maybe by Thursday lol.

It's probably a big hit if you remove the lobe. All the ingredients are in place. We just need the northern stream to cooperate. It's not like it's a brick wall of extreme cold. It's just that additional lobe that showed up 2 runs ago. The SS shortwave is plenty strong enough to deliver a significant storm here.

Confluence even stronger this run

A little different at h5..lol

Not sure if it will a difference but so far the SS shortwave is a little stronger and more positive tilted.

Ninjaed by @losetoa6

One thing I don't like seeing is a weaker trend in the SS wave. I posted the last 3 runs of the GFS. As @psuhoffman was saying we need more northern stream interaction to pull it north and I think the weaker wave is contributing to that. I would like to see a comeback to a stronger wave in future runs so we can rely less on interaction with the NS. 

It seems confluence is ussually over modeled out in time so hopefully that helps bring it further north.

I'm near the PA border and my bigger concern is still to far north lol. 

It seems once things trend to far north we just can't get it back under us.

I like where we are at right now.

The FV3 is further north than the OP GFS and closer to a good solution for us. I'm near the PA border and do worry a little about suppression but I was more concerned yesterday when the GFS had rain to upstate New York. If you look at the last 4 runs of the GFS it's all over the place. 

Wow at 192! That's got to be good.

Looks like the Euro and fv3 is on the same page.

2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

For those who can’t see, DCA went from the 2.5” line on 0z to the 5” line on 12z EPS. Areas south and west pushing 8 inches.

Can someone post a map in the digital snow thread...lol

One thing all the models do agree on is slowing down the onset. Don't think that's a good thing. Went from a Saturday on set to now later on Sunday.

The GEFS went the other direction. Looks like alot of good tracks in there.  Doesn't support the op at all which is big in my eyes as the GEFS seems to follow the op like a bunch of mini me's lol.

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

So was I!  Though the Penguins lost the game

 

It was a nice change for a caps fan. Ussually it's the pens dashing our hopes and dreams in the second round....lol

56 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Let’s go Caps! Terrible call on Wilson

That was a BS call. Hopefully he's not suspended for the rest of the season. It didn't look like a head shot. 

I love going to caps games.  Great atmosphere.

I was at game 5 of the Pittsburgh series last year.  The game was awesome and so was the bars after the game! 

I was sitting in the lower level at the end the caps shoot at twice. They actually scored all of there goals at that end of the ice that game. Really cool.