winterwx21

This is another example of the CMC being a much better model than GFS. I think it even picked up on next week's storm being a cutter before the Euro. The CMC has done pretty well with winter storm threats the last couple years. It's a pretty good model. Even worse than next week's storm not working out is the pattern really breaking down in late December. It looks like a big warmup going into New Year's weekend. The great pattern that we were supposed to have is likely going to be a big bust.

Yep. Still much different than Euro/CMC, but it now shows rain for next friday instead of snow.

Long range is way too difficult to predict to get excited about a potential event that's 10 days away. I don't get hopes up until a potential event gets to the more realistic day 5 range. The model skill is just too poor when you're looking out over a week.

Especially in a La Nina. You really need to see a decent December snowstorm in a La Nina winter or else the odds of having a well below normal snowfall winter are high.

But it doesn't have any support. Last 2 CMC runs were a rainstorm, and last night's Euro was a rainstorm. We'll see what the 12z Euro shows this afternoon, but the trends are not good at all.

Euro just came in warmer. Rain for most of us. You have to go well to the NW to see the snow on this run, similar to today's storm. Definitely not what we wanted to see tonight with these rainy runs (except for GFS), considering these things tend to trend NW as they get closer.

CMC a rainstorm. To me that's the bigger concern than a miss, but it's very early and we certainly have good potential here.

Euro is early with the timing. It has a low that brushes us with some snow on thursday the 22nd.

Which is good to see. We definitely want to see some OTS runs at this point. As bluewave pointed out earlier, NW trends usually happen as events get closer. If most model runs are showing us getting hit perfectly with a big snowstorm at this point, that would increase the odds of this ending up a rain event for the coast like today's storm. We definitely want to see this SE at this point and let it trend NW as it gets closer. It might not work out, but we have big potential here.

Yeah standards have changed. Now high temps in the 20s seems like bitter cold.

Yes right now the timing for the potential storm is late thursday into friday, well before Xmas eve. Then just bitter cold for Christmas weekend. High temps might not get out of the 20s.

Yeah the 12z Euro is a big warm cutter for the storm a few days before Christmas (next thursday). Rain all the way up into Canada. Of course at 9 days away, there's plenty of time for changes.

Depends on how far NW we're talking. I was talking about NW New Jersey in my post. You can see on the map that you posted that Warren and Sussex counties are mostly rain or mixed precip at hour 75. It's a few hours later that they change to snow. It's that last minute change that gives Warren and Sussex counties the several inches of snow on 0z NAM, not a front end dump. But again it's only 1 model run. Other model runs do give NW Jersey a front end dump. It's not looking good for NYC and nearby NW suburbs though. The 0z model runs tonight have all rain for these areas. Unless there are changes, it appears you'll have to go well to the NW to see snow from this event.

It was different because it was rain for most of the event, even for NW New Jersey. It comes in much warmer and NW New Jersey gets its accumulation only due to a changeover near the end. As Jm1220 said you want a front end thump from this event, and 0z NAM doesn't hava a front end thump at all. Of course it's just 1 run and could be wrong. 0z RGEM does have a nice front end thump for NW areas.

0z NAM just came in very warm. You have to go to extreme NW Jersey to see snow on this run. NW Jersey gets its accumulation at the end of the event with the rain changing over to snow on this run. Looks similar to 12z Euro with the warm solution.

The 12z Euro says no to that. It is pretty warm and even extreme NW Jersey doesn't get much snow on this run.

Not surprisingly the GFS brought the storm back, but it's warm for the coast. Have to go well to the northwest to see snow. 12z GGEM is also a big rainstorm. Obviously plenty of time for this to trend colder.

I think the extreme south solution for the late week storm that the last 2 GFS runs are showing is unlikely, but we can't rule it out. Suppression is at least a slight possibility if the blocking is too strong. It's good that it looks likely that we're gonna have an extended cold pattern in here for mid to late December, and obviously it gives us a decent possibility of scoring at some point. But we do have the possibility of it just being a cold/dry pattern. Hopefully that won't be the case, but it's a slight concern with the level of blocking.

GFS just shows that there's a big range of possibilities. Obviously model skill still isn't very good at 6 days out. We can have anything from the storm being suppressed too far to the south, to it being too tucked in and mostly rain. Hopefully a middle ground solution will happen. At least we have something interesting to track for the first time this season.

Not surprisingly the 12zCMC backed down on sunday's event. Now keeps most of the accumulating snow north of NYC like the other models.

Yeah even though December is considered meteorological winter while March is not, March has been a much better snow month than December for us in the last 10 years. We've had major March snow in 5 out of the last 10 winters.

Yeah a nice heavy downpour as this line is moving through. Some wind too. It's almost like a summer squall line.

12z Euro a big warm cutter for next sunday into monday. No surprise as most of the evidence is pointing to that being a cutter. As others have said, we do need to keep an eye on the smaller system before that for friday into saturday. Temps look borderline, and this 12z Euro run has us near the rain/snow line. Hopefully we can get a little more cold air to press down, but I wouldn't be too optimistic right now considering we have warm temps leading into that potential event.

And of course GFS is back to showing a warmer cutter on the 0z run, as the model continues its flip flops.

As Allsnow said a few days ago, I need to see Bluewave on board to get excited. That guy really knows what he's talking about. Tremendously great poster.