winterwx21

Good to hear that you believe that it could be quite awhile before our average snowfall starts going down. Thanks as always for your insight, Don. Your posts are great.

Yep but a brief arctic shot. The warmth comes back after the weekend.

It gets some light snow to us wednesday night (about an inch), but then changes us over to mix/rain on thursday. So you have to go northwest to see a few inches of snow on this run.

Yeah we finally have the look of precip missing us to the south with cold air in place, where we can hope for a north trend. It might not work out, but it feels as if we actually have a chance for the first time in a long time.

Not much for us next week on 12z GFS and CMC. CMC has some rain showers changing over to snow showers tuesday night into wednesday, and misses us to the south with a more significant storm late week. But not a bad look having it missing us to the south with cold air in place. Late next week is the time to watch. At least it feels as if we have a chance for the first time in a long time. Hopefully it will work out, since we'll be going into a warmer pattern the following week.

Yeah the 12zEuro has light snow missing us to the south tuesday night into wednesday with that weak storm. Last night's Euro was more north with it so it gave us a few inches. Yesterday's Euro had this as a warm cutter, so who knows what it will look like tomorrow with how these models flip flop around. Hopefully this colder look will hold so we'll have a chance. Day 9 storm of course is too far out to take very seriously. The CMC gives us mostly rain but this Euro run is mostly snow, although it's very close to changing us over to mix/rain since the cold air is pulling out at that point. A long way to go with that one.

Home field advantage is big and you'd have to give the Eagles the advantage at QB with Hurts, but I agree with LibertyBell that the 49ers have the better all around team. This is a tough one. I'll probably pick the Niners since I have nothing to lose going for the upset since I already won the Pick em contest in the sports forum.

12z CMC warms us up for another rainstorm the end of next week, but yeah it is good to see some other model runs actually missing us to the south. I'm not that optimistic, but at least we can say we have a period of better potential next week. Anything is possible from a snowstorm to a miss to the south to another cutter, but it looks like at least a slightly better shot than what we've had. Hopefully something will work out next week, since there are strong signs that we'll go into another warm pattern after that. Would be horrible to go the whole winter without 1 decent snow event, so keeping my fingers crossed for next week.

Brock Purdy has been impressive though. So much poise for a young kid. He has played great and the Niners have won 8 in a row with him starting. I thought losing Garoppolo would hurt them, but that hasn't been the case. I know I'm picking the Bengals, but I'm still undecided on the Eagles-Niners game. That's a very tough one to predict. Both should be great games ... really looking forward to Sunday.

That seems about right. Most models had northwest NJ getting an inch or two of snow.

Yeah RGEM was slightly too warm, but still did much better than NAM.

Yeah it'll be our coldest weather in awhile, but probably also just a transient cold shot.

Most likely another cutter next week, in this endless pattern of cutters. The most hopeless winter ever.

Nice, I'm glad you're at least getting to see a brief coating.

I guess you're a touch colder since you're a few miles north of me. Here all the snow is melting on contact.

Big flakes coming down. Temp has dropped to 35, but the ground is just too warm for any accumulation. Frustrating, but of course this was expected. A little non accumulating snow and then a lot of rain for our area.

Rain/snow mix here. 39 degrees.

CMC looks pretty warm for that event, but it's a week away so we'll keep an eye on it. At least it's a shot as you said.

What a shock, lol. There might be an inch or two of snow up in Sussex County where Walt is.

UKMET and HRRR also say you have to go to northwest NJ to see a little snow accumulation. Yep it's looking very likely that NYC will break the record.

It's gotten to the point that when we're at hour 84 we should just ignore the NAM and trust the RGEM. It's amazing how much more accurate RGEM is than NAM at that range. NAM doesn't seem to wake up until you get inside 48 hours.

Yeah I don't give the NAM any weight anymore. Trusting the RGEM is the way to go. It's amazing how superior RGEM is to NAM.

There's your predictable cave by the NAM. No snow for NYC on the 18z run. All you can do is laugh.

But you've said yourself that good patterns often don't produce. Also it wasn't long ago that you said the pattern looked good for late January, right after wednesday's cutter. Now it's pushed out to February. As others have said, we've been kicking the can all winter. I think when you're getting to the end of January without even an inch of snow, it makes sense to talk futility.

Yep. CMC also has a big cutter in early February, and even GFS now shows some warm air in the long range in early February. I don't think it's ever going to change this winter ... probably heading towards our worst ever.