winterwx21

Great overperformer today! It's actually 65 degrees here right now. I have to take advantage of this great weather -- going outside for a run right now. Temps are going to drop quickly later in the afternoon.

CMC at least looks interesting like last night's Euro. No question we need a perfect situation with a bombing low. I agree with snowman that there's very little chance of this working out, but as long as the chance hasn't gone down to zero it's worth tracking. A tiny chance is better than no chance at all, and it's very likely the last thing we have to track since we're looking at a warm pattern settling in for mid March. Expectations should be very low here, but you never know for sure.

I see 0z Euro gives us the storm next weekend. With dynamics and a good track we change over to heavy snow on this run. Obviously it needs to be a perfect situation since it's a borderline airmass, and it's over a week away. A real longshot at this point, but as long as there's a slim chance it's worth watching. Probably our last thing to watch this winter.

Yeah Euro keeps showing a threat around the 8th. Fantasy range but something to keep an eye on. Probably our last shot since it appears that major warmth with be coming in after the 10th. Obviously at this point you'd have to say it's a slim chance, but at least we still have a little bit of hope. I'd like to see one more snow event, but then I'm done. I'm looking forward to the warm pattern in mid march.

Yeah I was surprised that a few people called you out for saying we'd flirt with 60. You'd think people would know by now that our warmups usually overperform. Not a surprise that we're close to 60 this week. It hit 61 here today.

Looks like a decent cold shot for Sunday, but a brief one. We'll likely be back to warm weather by the 4th for a few days. Maybe after that we get a window for something wintry, but that's way out there.

55 degrees here right now. Feels great out there. It'll be interesting to see if we can hit 60 this week. We have a shot tomorrow and Thursday. At least upper 50s.

He didn't say 60s. He said flirting with 60 on Tuesday, which could mean upper 50s. NWS forecast for our area in central NJ has mid 50s for Tuesday. It wouldn't be a shock to see it make upper 50s here on Tuesday, which would mean his flirting with 60 statement was ok. Although clouds might keep it in the mid 50s here. We'll see. The bottom line though is it will be a much warmer week with lots of 50s. Winter certainly isn't over though with colder air in the long range.

After last night's half inch we're at 15 inches for the season here. Hopefully we're not done. I know there's some cold air in the long range for early March, so there's some hope. But in the meantime I'm looking forward to finally getting some warmer temps next week. 50s will feel great after this week's very cold weather. The wind chill today is brutal.

Still just light snow with that better band, but it should be enough to get us to a half inch. Only 22 degrees and the wind is blowing the powdery snow around. A beautiful hardcore winter night. I'm going outside quite a bit to enjoy it in case it's our last snowfall of the season. Hopefully it isn't, but it's getting late and you never know.

We have a nice little 0.2" coating here. Roads are coated. After a decent burst of light snow earlier in the afternoon, we had hours of just flurries. But now we're back to another decent burst of light snow. We'll see if this can get us to a half inch here.

Here just slightly to your north it's a solid light snow with everything dusted.

Already a light dusting here.

Very light snow here now.

I said you never know, it could be the last one. Which also means it might not be the last accumulating snow. I'm not claiming it's likely that it's the last one. Some years we get accumulating snow at the end of Feb or March, and some years we don't. I didn't exactly make a controversial statement, lol.

We'll see. As RU just said, that would mean most models being wrong. It certainly wouldn't be a shock though if we just get flakes with a light dusting.

Yeah we'll have to see how much this extremely dry air hurts us. Latest HRRR still looks pretty good with a half inch to inch for a lot of the area. Euro still looks decent too. Hopefully we can pull off a nice little half inch to inch snowfall. You never know, it could be the last one this season.

Along with the HRRR, the Euro tonight looks decent with a half inch to an inch for much of the area. Could be just a dusting, but we also have a shot at getting an inch. I'll enjoy whatever snow we get.

Too bad the NAM is a horrible model that we trust the least. I hate to completely discount a model since even the worst model is going to score a victory every once in awhile, but the chance of that happening seems extremely slim. However the RGEM shows why Walt never gave up on a light snowfall for our area. It's good to see that model giving us a little something Thursday afternoon. It's possible we can get a little bit with the upper level low or an inverted trough like feature. Getting close to an inch like the RGEM shows would be the story of our winter, but I would gladly take it. A nickel and dime winter is better than a blowtorch winter with no snow.

Of course this will be changing dramatically since we're going to have well below normal temps all this week. By the end of the week we'll be solidly below normal for the month.

We have to wait to see what happens in March. I know it appears that the month is going to start out mild, but of course it can be a wild month. If we get a significant snowstorm to get closer to average snowfall I would raise the grade to a B, but for now it's a C. Usually I wouldn't give a C for 14.5 inches of snow, but it has been a cold winter with numerous snow events and extended snowcover. At least it really felt like winter this year, but it's still disappointing that we couldn't get a siginificant snowstorm with the consistent below average temps. This week is especially disappointing since Thursday had big potential.

NAM was still a pretty good hit but not as good as the 18z run. It's probably trending towards the other models, but doesn't mean it's going to be a complete miss. Hopefully we will at least get brushed with a light event. I know some have given up, but I would at least give it until tomorrow night. Model skill isn't so great that we should be giving up 3 days before an event with the models showing a near miss.

And a little more than that with good snow ratios. I'd gladly take a few inches of powdery snow like Euro shows, but of course it'll be awhile before we figure out how close this is gonna be.

Great post, thank you.

GFS is close enough to give significant snow to southern NJ and we have almost 4 days to go, yet people think it's over. Too funny. Yeah this could miss, but we're still in the game. Snow ratios for this event are going to be higher too. Even if we just get brushed with a little precip we can get a few inches. Powder as Walt called it. We have a long way to go here to figure out how much.