@psuhoffman the basin wide warmth in the Pac is the one thing that I see as possibly causing ENSO to not act as it would normally. It basically spells out that any flow directly off the PAC will be a bad thing. Our cold source has to originate from the arctic and if the jet can't buckle as it normally would then the lower 48 is flooded with mild marine air. I will say a warmer than usual PAC with a EC trough will have a very juicy sub tropical component if it happens.