Jed33

Picking up here for sure steady light to moderate snow.

So far this morning have about 1.25in mostly on the grass with a crunchy ice and scattered snow cover layer on the roads and driveway.

Light snow flurries finally making an appearance here. Temp 29 dp 21

Man the gfs!

MRX evening update. Pay special attention to the last part! WPC has upped totals and thinks it will be easy to exceed 8in Central Valley and north! Astounding to say the least! 000 FXUS64 KMRX 150308 AAB AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 1008 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 944 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 A bit late on the evening update here, but wanted to have a little bit to see some early time steps of the 00z guidance and see the radar trends this evening as snow began to make it into our CWA. Main changes to the forecast were to update the PoP grids to reflect current radar trends and pretty strong onset of snowfall pushing into our area over the next 4-6 hours. Have seen several reports from Knoxville and points west that show snowfall accumulating on surfaces already. Albeit light, the fact that it`s already accumulating certainly lends confidence to the increase in snowfall totals with the afternoon forecast package earlier today. Current NBM hourly PoPs show this initial wave of precip moving out around 09z, with a distinct lull thereafter through about 13-14z before the main show moves in after daybreak. This seems very reasonable given the latest CAM guidance, but do not want to try and time a 3-4hr lull in precipitation given that it won`t have a significant impact on expected storm total amounts. Another notable change was to include some sleet and freezing rain precip types down in the Marion county area. NAM forecast soundings for Huntsville this evening did indeed show a weak warm nose through much of the overnight hours. Conceptually this would extend further ENE into our CWA in the warm SWLY flow around 850mb in that region. We`ve had a report of a light glazing in parts of eastern Marion county which confirms this thinking. Not expecting this to last as the column will continue to cool and precip rates increase. But it is in line with the uncertainty in ptypes, and storm total accumulations for the southern valley and far southeast Tennessee. Lastly, WPC has upped the snowfall amounts for the event in the I-40 corridor and points north. Didn`t want to make wholesale changes to the forecast for the evening update, but this trend doesn`t seem unreasonable given what`s already occurring this evening. And it is worth noting that for the last few days, NBM and HREF probabilistic guidance has been showing some healthy probability of seeing storm total snowfall amounts easily exceeding 8" across portions of the forecast area. Will let the overnight shift make any substantive changes that are necessary since they will have the full suite of the latest NBM probabilistic guidance as well as the 00z models at their

0z NAM is easing off on the warm nose up the eastern valley and filling in. Looks better!

Have dropped off steadily here myself about 4 degrees in the last hour or so.

Look at how the 18z GFS is playing catch up, even since 6z this morning. If you toggle between the runs it’s amazing how much it has had to adjust. It’s coming out right now.

The Icon has had this solution for days. It’s amazing it’s consistency!

Looks better than 12z to me.

Very similar to that event we talked about a few weeks ago from 2014 where the mtns got the warm air and cold air was trapped in the valley

18z gfs has a stronger hp dropping in 1055 this time. Looks like the wave is still there. I thought it actually got more of MS and AL in but it doesn’t look like it. Actually the hp makes it to a 1056 at one point!

Oh no man I hate to hear that! RSV is no joke! Pray you get well soon! Maybe these fun model runs will help!

MRX is talking about how this mountain wave event has the potential to be the strongest in a decade or more! It certainly seems like it is going to be quite a strong event! They don’t use language like that often.

Yep! It was needed lol.

Why is the rest of the valley not under an advisory? The winds are absolutely howling here! Gusting to 30+ already

I lived in Memphis in 96 and remember it quite well. Originally Memphis was supposed to get more than Nashville and Knoxville, but the storm ended up being further south and east than originally thought. Now, Memphis picked up some snow but it was only about 1-3 in depending on where you were. There was a sharp gradient across the river in AR where there was nothing. I remember thinking “I sure do wish I lived in East TN” haha! Little did I know that I would someday

Have a good deal of ice on the road this morning. Surprised there’s not an sps for it. I’ve seen many times where we’d have an sps for it and there was far less ice than this morning. I guess they have other things on their mind this morning.

0z GFS with a 963mb Low over northern Ohio/southern MI at 132hrs-if you thought the wind was going to be a problem with the system tomorrow! Wow! That low on this run strengthens into a hurricane blizzard for the Ohio valley! I’m surprised there wasn’t more wraparound precip even here with that solution! That was crazy! And, yep, that would definitely pull some cold air down geeze.

Just had a sleet shower here in town as well.

Phase 3 is a good phase in January-March for the Eastern US if I’m not mistaken, right? Seems like it’s not great for December but it gets better for Jan-March?

Here ya go! Sorry for the delay I had to run out of the house for a minute

That system is archived here still on page 8. 2nd from bottom. I just went back and looked it up if yall would like to read it again. It was so fun watching it fall! The one time the valley had CAD and the mtns went rogue warm!

This has been a pretty steady light snow shower for awhile now. I don’t remember any models except maybe the 3k showing this for this morning. Hopefully it will over perform overall and tonight when cooler temps move in we can get at least some light accums.

Getting a nice snow shower here as well. Too bad it’s not colder could have had a nice little coating.