Jed33
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Everything posted by Jed33
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Coming down at a good clip now moderate I’d say with mostly dime sized flakes
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Light snow here too with some bigger flakes here and there
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Not sure if we have any posters from N.E. AR but man this is some extremely heavy snow according to Radar between Memphis and Searcy AR!
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Ha! On that run the gfs is like I’ll put a lakes low up there but I’ll also make it so cold over the TN Valley that it will produce enough cold for the gulf coast to have its own snow storm! Ridiculous!
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They haven’t done 4PM updates in months. They update the afd around 12:45-1:45 PM and AM every day and that’s it. I assume it’s the budget cuts. I could be wrong. They very seldom, and I mean very seldom will update in the 9:45-11AM or PM range nowadays and one of those days was today. They also do their zone forecasts the same way. It’s kinda sad.
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Definitely south of where it had been the 12k is too
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The 0z RGEM looks a little further south/ colder as well compared to 18z.
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When the Canadian is the warmest model-uh oh!
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Look at the end of the system around hr 84. That may make up for some of the frustration. It’s been playing with this idea for several runs
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It looked to me that the Ukie was also a little colder and just a tick south as well.
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Right or wrong, that 18z GFS was the coldest day after day, week after week that I’ve ever seen. I counted 15 frames where the temp was single digits or lower between 6z and 12z timestamps on that run. For cold that is beyond impressive!
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Wow that would be something else say 10in of snow, a quarter inch of zr and another 10inches on top for me. That middle layer would turn it all to a frozen cement within a day or two! That would be on the ground for weeks esp in the shade!
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A thought that I had earlier- if we could go back and look at the sequence of snowstorms from 1960, would it look like this on the models?
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Man I have really enjoyed following along with everyone here in Canada! This place is just so unbelievably beautiful though it’s hard to describe! They have had a record start to the snowfall season here, it has dwindled down recently. Still way better than the US West though. I will do my best to bring it back with me-been thinking that it could look just about like it does here (minus the huge mtns of course). I like the fact that the AI and OP runs seem to be closer together now. Hopefully we can all reel in a big snow and avoid the ice!
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Look at how low the dew points are too. That has to be good for at least onset sleet until the dewpoint rises above freezing. I don’t know I’m grasping at straws here but seen that happen many times.
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I guess I should go out of town more often! We’re on the way to Banff and Lake Louise for some skiing. Those 12z runs are coming in hot! Er uh Cold and snowy! If this pattern doesn’t produce something I don’t know what it’ll take. Big caution is the drought situation and the moisture content of systems underperforming, but hopefully the STJ is indeed waking up and will give us a much needed shot of moisture.
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It was 13° this morning when I left my house at 5:15. I’m not sure if it went any lower or not. The clouds moved in so it may not have. We’re on the way to Banff and Lake Louise to ski and board this weekend. Currently in Chicago, where there’s probably 1-1.5in on the ground and the unused roads and runways are covered here. Anyways, I’ll be pulling for everyone to score tonight!
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I saw a video of the snow squall but didn’t see the wreck. My goodness that’s right up there with one of the worst! You’d expect that if there was a ton of snow or ice but sometimes the smallest amount of ice sneaks up on you. Wow!
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That contributed to that 2014-2015 season being one of the best that I’ve seen since we moved to E TN in 2011. That year we exceeded 20in total snowfall, but it didn’t really get going until late Jan and ramped up in Feb. and into March.
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I think it was in 2015. The further N and W you went, the more they got to a point. The CAD worked for the valley but the foothills and mtns got blasted with WAA. It was literally snowing and in the 20’s in the valley and raining and 45-50 degrees in the foothills and mtns. I’m not sure what it did to the plateau at the top elevations? Some of the heaviest snow I had ever seen until the MLK day 2024 over running event, which had some similarities in the foothills and mtns but was not quite exactly the same.
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Yes, I was noticing that. It’s already 19 here. Forecast low is 15. Thinking could be between 10-15 here
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In our area it makes sense if there’s bands or streamers after one of these cold shots. For the Deep SE-yeah I ain’t got no explanation lol!
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The west end of Morristown near MRX picked up a decent little dusting overnight. Nothing on my end of the county though. Skies cleared out and bottomed out at 18. When I just drove to the west side of town right now I noticed the snow started showing up more and more the further west that I went. I did notice a small streamer in that area around 5AM this morning. That area is somewhat favored in NW flow. It can do pretty well for the valley in these events.
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Ha! My parents have one on Okaloosa island! Ft. Walton area. Kicking myself for not going down last year! To add to that post. They didn’t have any means to deal with it other than sand and a few good ole boys. The thing was where it fell on the sand, it took forever to melt! Now on the roads it melted on its on. Never would have guessed it. They didn’t have anything to compare it with, but it lasted a week on the beach in places especially flat areas slightly sloped back from the direct angle of the sun. Just completely unheard of!
