CAPE

The weeklies have been fucking with us for months with these favorable h5 Nino-ish looks. With one or 2 brief exceptions, it remains a unicorn. But yes come late March, we will probably get a blockbuster slow moving Miller A with copious amounts of cold rain. Maybe we can all meet up At Canaan.

Mosquitoes are a different story. Because I have a seasonal woodland wetland on my property, Spring mosquitoes are like clockwork, unless we have a super dry Winter/early Spring. To avoid an unmanageable swarm that can only be knocked back with malathion, I have to larvicide in late March, and then I hit it again a few weeks later for good measure. If I do that, I won't see a mosquito until those invasive Asian Tigers show up later in Summer. Those bastards seemingly don't require any water to breed(they do, but very very little).

I do it when its dry, but once you spray and the insecticide dries, if it rains a few hours or a day later its fine.

I dread bugs every year. I use this. Spray it around the perimeter of the house- along the foundation, door sills etc with a garden sprayer. I start in mid March and do it every month or so. Has a long lasting residual. Once it dries its not harmful to humans. You can spray it inside- can be used for bed bugs. Good shit. https://www.diypestwarehouse.com/products/suspend-sc

It was 2018.

You should start the thread. Can't wait to see the title.

That's the Philly forum, and it does have a banter thread. I think he is talking about the Upstate NY/PA forum. Either way, that won't work here.

You are right, but you aren't going to convince him. Give up lol.

Zero. Idiom. You really take everything you read here literally lol?

We can flip a coin on that one. In all seriousness, I enjoy trying to locate potential in the LR, but it is high risk/low reward. I don't want a storm named after me. Look what just happened to PSU

This would be prior to that. I got the 28th through the 3rd.

Moved the post to the other thread. I guess I mistakenly put it here lol

Early March h5 look has improved some on the last few runs of the GEFS, with a temporary PNA ridge going up and a wave tracking east under a Hudson/Baffin ridge. Might be a chance here.

12z GFS snows on us(mostly just south).

0z EPS indicating some changes in the Pacific with hints of a PNA ridge developing at the end of the run. GEPS is similar. Lets see how persistent this is, and if the GEFS trends that way. Not sure how sustainable it would be with the MJO forecast to emerge near the MC.

They have been depicting the classic Nino look with an Aleutian low, lower heights across the southern/eastern US, and NA blocking since late November for mid Jan-Feb-March. Maybe they finally get it right now?

Oh it can happen here. I had around 8 inches on March 20th 2018. The St Patty's day storm in 2014(I think) was another one- temps fell into the low 20s by mid afternoon with 6" of snow on top of ZR/sleet.

Unless there are some significant changes with the location and timing of the currently depicted key features, this is a mild storm with cold coming in behind. 50-50 High leading in? Locate the thermal boundary..

Imo, regardless of where we specifically live(piedmont, coastal plain) at our latitude, other than maybe the western highlands, long term snowfall climo-mean/median- simply cannot be the expectation or 'bar' for a good winter anymore. I will enjoy a snowless winter because it provides a wonderful break from the relentless heat and humidity(and bugs) of our long, long summers.

Arguably this here Nino is very much Nina like. We can start with the NS dominant pattern, and the tropical forcing that can't progress east of the MC for more than a minute.

That early Jan 22 event was THE(one and only) CAPE storm. Saw that potential when we were in the no way out, shit the effin' blinds pattern lol. That was the beginning of a pretty cold period that featured 3 snowstorms in Jan, 2 of which were focused east. Interior/northern crew got a moderate storm in Feb around the SB I believe. Pretty there was at least one other event that month that wasn't an 'eastern special'. But yeah, I don't fear a Nina, even though my yard often ends up on the western edge of a big coastal storm.

I get it. We have had this discussion before. Just making the point to him that it isn't that unusual for big snowstorms to occur in our region during a Nina. The early Jan 22 storm was a double digit snow for some, and not a coastal scraper. It was a juiced wave tracking along the boundary and impacted all but the very northern parts of our subforum.

Not really a southern jet like in a Nino, but during a +PNA/-EPO episode there can be a bit of a split flow and/or a wave embedded in the flow overtop the ridge and drops southward, then propagates eastward. The Jan 22 storms evolved from that type of pattern.

Jan 17, 18, and 22 all had big snowstorms that impacted eastern areas of the MA. 2018 also had the March storm that was a biggie for at least northern/eastern parts of our region. We are perfectly capable of getting a complete ratter regardless of ENSO state.