CAPE

That likely doesn't include the latest model runs. We shall see.

Tucker isn't auto anymore.

Harbaugh lol. What a dumb challenge.

Os sure are due to break out, but man I just don't know if I see it.

Raven's offense lol. OL is just terrible right now. See if Monkon keeps being dumb, or makes some adjustments.

Latest model runs kinda suck for the northeast portion of our region.

Early-mid Sept is a bit soon for notable color at our latitude east of the mountains under 'normal' conditions. Extreme dryness causes yellowing/browning and early leaf drop. Seems to happen here more times than not in recent years.

The more poleward Aleutian ridge is the most important feature for our area in a Nina. That along with the stretched/southward displaced TPV idea the climate models have been hinting at would provide a mechanism for cold air delivery at times. During colder periods the thermal boundary could push over/just to the south of us. Models have also been hinting at possible HL blocking. Fwiw the advertised h5 look on the latest CFS runs look quite acceptable for Jan, and Feb too.

Mount Holly seems to be gaining confidence. "1-2 inches possible" wording here for Tuesday. I'll believe it when it happens lol.

I've got some yellow color here but not normal- due to stress. Plenty of crispy leaves down. I was out earlier with the leaf blower.

I wasn't there but a few people I know went. Still put on a great show.

Meanwhile the Boss performed at Camden Yards last night.

Hard to see them digging out at this point.

Models are in better agreement now on the HP sliding off the NE coast. This allows the low off the SE coast to track northward with an impressive feed of tropical moisture. We need this.

Latest QPF through D7 from WPC. The region is on the edge.

High pressure to the north weakens/slides off the coast on the GFS. Euro keeps it entrenched.

Running the sprinkler 2 hours each evening to keep the new grass going. I have more to do, but not going to seed any new areas until it rains.

The atmospheric blocking pattern looks persistent on the means. The h5 ridge in that position will maintain a surface high to the north/northeast. Remains to be seen if moisture associated with any tropical/subtropical low off the SE coast can make it this far north if that block doesn't weaken some.

The CFS runs multiple times a day. TT has the average of the last 12 runs- which removes some of the 'noise'. Still if you look at it over a period of a week or so, it changes quite a bit. WB is ridiculous and not worth looking at imo. Just looked at TT and the general h5 look is pretty similar to previous runs to me. Feb looks much colder than previous runs. The basic idea is all that can be gleaned from any of these climate models- generally they all show boiler plate Nina looks. A Poleward biased Aleutian ridge is the key feature of interest for our region to have a cold period or 2.

45

Beautiful day. High of 71.

Bengals lose to the lowly Pats at home, and now have to go play at Chiefs. They do seem to get off to slow starts lately for some reason. I almost want them to win this week..

Adley is especially hard to watch at the plate. Been awful for awhile. Hitting .176 since the end of June.

I mean, I was cheering for the guy to do well today. What a fail. A typical ugly Steelers win. All they have are backup QBs, and will manage to win 10 easily.

Yeah the Giants aren't very good, but a nice win regardless. Wish my team wasn't 0-1 lol. And how bout Cousins being Cousins. Miss him? He always manages to get the big payday despite being an ugly duckling QB who mostly fails when it matters, while always compiling 'good' numbers. Penix trending on X lol.