CAPE

Yeah if they can't manage a series win against lowly Colorado when they desperately need to get on track, that's not a good sign. If Hyde calls on Kimbrel one more damn time short of them being down by 10 runs in the fifth.. Unbelievable how bad he is at this. Might be time for a managerial change if they squeak in and then exit early again.

Sipping on a WWS. Been awhile since I have had one of these, and I must say I am enjoying the hell out of it.

Mostly the pitchers. Ridiculous. If they are going to have any chance in the postseason the offense needs to get going again.

Yeah it looks dry overall, but again that is to be expected on these models during a Nina. Odds are we get a few shots at a storm with cold in place. The difference between a complete ratter and something like 2022 is basically timing/luck. One thing about a Nina is there will be available cold air to the NW. Just need a mechanism to bring it south, and an EPO ridge + the TPV on our side can do that. Not sure Ninos can work for us anymore with Canada being above avg. A Modoki would be the real test. If that fails..

The new edition of the CanSIPS is out, and it is pretty similar to the previous run. Both the CFS and CanSIPS are indicating that the Aleutian ridge may be biased poleward, in conjunction with a southeastward stretched TPV. I don't see any indication of a raging +NAO on either model(not that that necessarily means much). Seasonal LR guidance can provide some hints but are generally 'boilerplate' wrt the longwave pattern. Remember the great Nino looks we were all getting excited about this time last year? The CanSIPS also has a Scandi ridge with suggestion of a neutral NAO, and perhaps episodes where that ridge builds westward into the NAO domain. Looking at the surface, there is the typical colder than avg for Canada and the northern tier of the US, but if the TPV does verify in that location along with some -EPO periods, there certainly could be a few cold air outbreaks that push the thermal boundary further south and east. Overall I would expect a mild winter for the MA, but it only takes a well timed wave or 2 when the cold presses southward to get close to climo in the lowlands. We have seen this work out several times in recent Nina winters.

Mesos aren't too impressed. Not expecting much here. Most of the coastal plain is back to abnormally dry. My only concern is the new grass. Easy enough to water to get it to germinate, but not so easy to get a deep watering with the sprinkler to get the roots established. Hopefully the late week/weekend potential becomes reality.

The Black Beauty germinates quick this time of year. The area I seeded last Sunday produced seedlings by Friday. (that's when I noticed them)

If Hyde continues to bring Kimbrel in to pitch in key situations, it will do the opposite. Demoralizing. Cano threw like 8 pitches. Hyde has no clue.

Glad you are getting crushed finally. Just the opposite here this month, after a wet July. NBD tho as it is late summer/early Fall now and the 'burning' period is over. I am reseeding so its actually better to do controlled watering vs getting a deluge that washes the grass seed away before it gets established.

Meteorological Fall is upon us. Days are notably shorter. It was overcast and gloomy and relatively cool with some drizzle today. Had a Fall like feel. Only 5-6 more weeks of second Summer until we get to actual Fall weather.

Its not a prediction. Just speculation based on how some recent Ninas have played out, and it represents a possible best case scenario realistically. A cold period late Dec into mid January, then another chance later in winter as the Nina fades, with a possible NA blocking period. It's impossible to know exactly what the character of this event will be or how it will play out- right now there is no guarantee it will be an official Nina. Cold neutral is a possibility. What we do know is the PDO is still unfavorable and there are various marine heat waves that will have some impact. The MJO forcing will likely remain in the unfavorable phases most of the time.

Had a brief downpour overnight with a rumble of thunder, otherwise just some light rain. 0.34"

Getting some steady light rain here in the stable marine airmass. Currently 69. Have to see how this plays out tonight. I am guessing any storms that try to move east will tend to die out. I'll settle for the leftovers.

Might play out something like 2018. Early Jan bomb cyclone courtesy of an impressive +PNA/-EPO ridge with cross polar flow, followed by a late winter -NAO episode with a non hostile Pacific, resulting in a mid March SECS.

Mid 80s and humid earlier in the day. Back doored since. Breezy and coolish outside now, 75. Can feel the marine influence. Probably kills any storms that try to move east though, and it is bone dry here again.

If we get an h5 pattern similar to this, with the Aleutian ridge more poleward and the suggestion of periodic -EPO episodes, we could end up with a good few weeks to a month of actual winter similar to Jan 2022. The other thing you like to see in a Nina is a somewhat southward displaced/stretched TPV. Occasional cold air pressing southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and TPV in a gradient pattern with a well timed wave is a pretty straight forward path to victory for our area in a Nina.

High of 94. Still 91 at 5pm.

That was a good Nina winter, esp the beach blizzard chase. The 2021-22 Nina was better in my yard, with 3 Jan snowstorms, including snow on snow. Right around 20" for the month. Plus I identified the potential for the early Jan storm weeks before when we were mired in the 'shit the blinds' pattern with no apparent end in sight. Was fun to track from LR to short range, to it actually coming to fruition- although it left PSU land high and dry. Not much of anything snow-wise before or after that over here though. Some bad luck in Feb. That was an epic Jan by today's standards, so that winter goes down as a big win.

52

I am starting today. I have the initial area raked and soil loosened. I stick with Jonathan Green Black Beauty Original and use their Green up starter fertilizer.

Low of 51

Os can't catch a break lol. Another one down. Hopefully they can keep playing .500 and get in, while getting Grayson back and maybe Elfin for the end of the reg season and playoffs.

High of 72. Currently 67. Nice breeze all day too. Perfect.