CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Ugly AK trough right here
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The Euro has been trying for several runs for around the 7th, and it gets to a pretty good outcome on the 12z run.
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The western US ridge and the downstream trough orientation/axis have been discussed. The big picture as advertised on guidance is a pattern that can deliver anomalous cold. Plenty to nitpick should you choose to do so. Might end up cold and dry- that is a 'risk'. As I said in at least one post, it will probably take a significant NS shortwave to get a surface low to develop far enough south(and west) for the MA to cash in. A higher amplitude ridge with an axis further west would help to facilitate this.
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It's an h5 snapshot from an ensemble mean for a specific time on a single day. The longwave pattern phase isn't stationary.
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Their best play is a hail mary lol.
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lol no.
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Cowboys stupidly gave em one more chance..
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Oh wait, 14 seconds left lol.
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Cowboys were due for a win. Law of averages can be a bitch.
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WTF WFT? holy shit
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Talk about a mechanism for cross Polar flow lol. Then an anticyclonic wave break sends a massive h5 avocado southward. Barney cold at the surface. Euro is feeding the weenies now that it extends beyond 240.
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Exactly. That's a snapshot on a mean. The op runs depict a bunch of shortwave energy embedded in the flow over the western ridge/between it and the TPV. Strong shortwaves dropping southward will modify the the longwave trough.
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If this is real we better get some snow. No weenie could draw it up any better.
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We getting snow before the 12th.
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GEPS is also building h5 heights in the NAO domain at the end of the run.
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Stronger signal on the 12z GEFS for the 8th. 12z Euro ens hinting too. 0z Euro op was real close, as I posted this morning.
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Its 'there' on the GEFS and Euro ens mean too, but barely. Looks like most of the moisture gets wrung out over the western highlands, which is typical of a weak clipper. Snow in the air and maybe a whitening of the ground in the lowlands in early Dec is better than cold and dry.
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12z Euro snows on the coast of SC/NC on the 4th.
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12z GFS has a weak clipper with a bit of snow verbatim next Sunday. Maybe a few days later there will be a better chance for a NS shortwave to dig and sharpen the trough more.
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Yay lake effect and mountain upslope snow as we get cold and dry
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For the late week system, its difficult to see a win scenario for frozen in our region imo. The GFS has trended south with the track, but also flat and weak. The more northern track on most guidance(most likely) is more amped and milder. There just isn't any real cold air out in front and there is an absence of HP to the north to transport colder air in even with a favorable track. The cold HP is back in the N central part of the country, so cold air will come in behind.
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If the advertised h5 pattern and associated cold verifies, our chance for a storm in early December will likely come via an Alberta Clipper. If we get this sort of amplification, there very well could be a strong shortwave that digs and induces a moderate storm- and maybe even bombs as it approaches the coast.
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Anomalous early season winter cold with no moisture. Woot!
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Hard to complain and looks cold, but remains to be seen how conducive it is for getting a significant NS shortwave to dig enough to develop a storm south of our latitude. Probably need an anticyclonic wave break to get a shortwave embedded in the flow to dive further southward/further west than these panels imply.
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Yeah it looks cold, with reinforcing shots. Gotta have some legit cold for the lowlands to snow and in the current climate regime this is how we can get it. Hopefully this period won't just end up cold and dry with NS waves passing to our north.
