CAPE

Yes this second batch hit pretty squarely. Just over a half inch so far.

A banging thunderstorm happening now a couple miles to my SW, but not likely to deliver any rain here. The one last night passed just to the north by a mile or 2 lol. Oh well. Nature of the beast.

Picked up a hundredth yesterday lol. Everything managed to avoid my yard. Glad I got that rain Saturday morning that wasn't supposed to happen, because the high probability period for heavy rain beyond that was a fail.

Storms well NW and well SE of here. In a bigger gap of nothingness than last night lol.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 319 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Sussex County in southern Delaware... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 319 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Millsboro, or near Georgetown, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. * Locations impacted include... Georgetown, Millsboro, Milton, and Henlopen Acres.

Decadal- i.e. decadal scale. It is often multiple decades. Doesn't mean the phase shifts every 10 years.

The Os offense needs to snap out of this inconsistent mode. With all the injuries/other shortcomings with the pitching staff, this team won't go far unless the bats get going again, especially situational hitting.

Cool. I love the beach in winter. And you won't have to chase those Nina beach blizzards. Seem to be happening more often lately.

84/74. Sultry. Plenty of mid/late afternoon sun to help fuel convection. Hopefully there is a more consolidated line so the haves outnumber the have nots. The actual front comes through tomorrow, so there will be another chance with that, followed by an early Fall preview.

Mostly got missed last night. Picked up 0.17" as a storm skirted by to the southeast. 0.82" since yesterday morning.

Its gonna be close. That gap of nothingness is legit.

That might actually make it here. Sinking southward. The gap has closed.

Quiet here. It's a soil thing I think. They generally don't like it over here.

From Mount Holly AFD- A brief lull is possible late morning/early afternoon, though isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible during this time. Our second round of heavy rain and storms for the day looks to begin forming across eastern PA during the early/mid afternoon as the cold front associated with this system begins its eastward trek across the region. At this time, the upper level trough will begin to dig and support increased baroclinic forcing along the front. Dew points will rise into the low to mid 70s with PWATs over 2.0 inches ahead of this line of storms. As a result, rainfall forecasts of widespread 1-3 inches total are expected with local amounts of 4 inches or more possible. With this in mind, a Flood Watch was issued for the I-95 corridor and areas north & west into the Lehigh Valley and Berks County. Additionally, though daytime heating will be limited, there is a bit of uncertainty if there will be any breaks in the clouds. If any amount of daytime heating does occur, instability and lapse rates could jump and increase the severe potential for the afternoon and evening. Still a lot of uncertainty with this potential to form, but with deep layer shear around 30kts, parameters could become sufficient to support severe thunderstorms with the best conditions across southern NJ and the Delmarva. SPC has placed this region into a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather. High temperatures in the afternoon look to be in the low-80s.

That gap of nothingness looks like it will align perfectly with my yard lol. Glad I got the unexpected 0.65" this morning.

That area is only 'swampy' in the late winter/early Spring. Once the trees become active and the days get longer/milder, the water table recedes and it dries up. Pretty much the same every year, just the duration of water sitting there varies depending on rainfall. Anyway, as long as I apply larvicide at the right time, the native skeeters are a non-issue. The invasive Asian Tigers are another story, as they arrive late Summer(now) and require very little water to be lying around to continue to breed- thus they can linger into October unless we get chilly earlier than normal(rare). Luckily here(so far) they haven't been a problem. This wet period over the next day or so might change that.

Getting a bit of sun for the first time today. Feels tropical out there now. There will likely be some impressive rain rates at times over the next 24 hours.

Another round of showers moving in here. Not how I envisioned this day going lol. Most of this was forecast to remain further west for much of today. Forecast is still for a tenth or less today outside of thunderstorms. Plenty of rain, and no thunder yet.

The days are shorter and sun angle lowering- approaching 2 months beyond the Solstice. I have started reseeding the first week in August with good results. Soil is nice and warm so it germinates quick. Just keep the seed wet and covered- damn birds will eat it.

This is definitely overperforming- most guidance wasn't impressive with any significant rain making it this far east this morning. Looks like it should end pretty shortly per radar. 0.42" eta- 0.55" total

Moderate rain showers moving through. I was hoping to get some yardwork in this morning. Hopefully this will pass and the sun comes out to dry things up before the potential showers/storms later.

I always do it mid-late August. Being in the woods, it's good to get the new grass established before the leaves start coming down.

Some of the CAMs have isolated to scattered cells tomorrow evening, others suggest a more consolidated line moving through. Tough call. Overall the best chance for showers/storms this weekend is late tomorrow afternoon/evening and again late Sunday.

WPC expanded the slight risk for excessive rain a bit for Sunday. Covers most of central/eastern MD and DE.

Next week looks glorious behind the cold front. Highs mostly in the 70s, lows in the 50s.