CAPE

Not really. At least not substantially so for the majority of winter. The AO was neutral/slightly positive in Dec, then somewhat negative in Jan ( the super awesome SSWE!), then went positive for Feb and March. IIRC. Statistically, a -AO(associated with a weaker PV) is the number one index that correlates to winter cold and above average snow for the DC area. Always remember that. Close behind(ideally in conjunction with) is an el Nino. Ofc in the absence of a -AO, a -EPO can bring the cold. We have seen that in a few winters this decade. The NAO was predominantly positive during those winters though, so amped storms didn't take a favorable track(mostly rainers). A legit -NAO typically occurs when we have a sustained/significantly -AO, but not always. -AO/-NAO/moderate Nino is the holy grail for the MA. eta- Here are the QBO 30mb values for October 2018 through March 2019: -2.79 3.36 8.05 9.02 9.25 11.82 negative trending positive is typically associated with a strengthening PV And here are the AO numbers- Notice the only negative value during the winter months was Jan and it was not strongly negative. Despite perception(the SSW/PV split hype), the PV, going by the numbers(and also ground truth) was generally not in a weakened state last winter. AO Correlates pretty well with the QBO index for the same time frame. The negative AO in Jan was indicative of a temporarily weakened PV state that resulted from the SWE.

But we just cant know until the SAI has its say. I am counting down the days until Oct 1st.

Maryland might be fun to watch this season.

I wouldn't call that "much" weaker lol. Still a ways to go before we get a good idea of the PDO state for winter.

So are we losing it?

Outside of ENSO state, the AO has the most impact on the character of winter for our region. Without a -AO we need something like the EPO/WPO to be favorable to provide the mechanism for cold air delivery, as we had a few winters ago when the AO was predominantly positive. We generally aren't going to get a -NAO when the AO is solidly positive; having a consolidated, strong vortex parked in the middle atmosphere of the polar region is not very conducive to the formation of sustained anomalously high 500 mb heights in the NA.

^ Winter is coming.

55 here this morning.

Ok who is the EC US weather geek who hacked/reprogrammed the model physics for the CanSIPS?

Looking at the NH h5 panels on the CanSIPS for Jan and Feb, its just ridiculous lol. Totally sick. March isn't far behind. Feb lol That look would be indicative of one weak azz PV. Baby steps.

If the CanSIPS is on to something(real), we won't have to wait too long to see if it really has a clue. Check out October. The "scary" thing is, the CFS has the same idea.

Oh a -NAO still exists.. its only extinct in the winter months.

A moderate Nino is the sweet spot for the MA in general I believe. More specifically, a Modoki. 2009-10 being the obvious example. Weak Ninos can be utter fails here, and much better for NE.

I think the -AO is the key, and statistically it usually is for colder than average/snowier winters here and also the odds of getting a legit -NAO to develop. Makes some sense given the QBO trends combined with the solar min (should correlate to a weaker PV). Also some support for a -EPO given the current SSTs in the Pac. The 'current' PDO look is subject to change though as we move further into Fall, much more so than the ENSO, which will likely be neutral for winter. Hopefully the atmosphere behaves more Ninoish. Overall though you have to like the early signs.

Yeah that pretty much was my reaction. CFS has been leaning that way too lately- esp the look in the eastern/N Pac and around AK. Seems to be "coming around" on more NA blocking though, esp mid to late winter.

Here is Dec for an appetizer.. Probably completely unrealistic, but hey, its September. Might as well weenie out a bit. We need some 'feel good' heading into the heart of fall.

New CanSIPS is out. And its, well, possibly more orgasmic than the last edition lol. Wow. @showmethesnow

Kicking off the first weekend of Fall(NFL baby!) sipping on a DFH WWS. Perfect selection for a Fall Friday Happy hour. Unless you have to drive somewhere soon.

Pretty much the same here.

Feels a bit like fall out there today. Light rain and drizzle, breezy, and 64 degrees.

I like the idea of a big EPO ridge this winter. Seeing it show up a lot on the seasonal/climate models, and there is at least weak support for it looking at the current Pacific SSTA. The CFS has been consistently advertising a big ridge over and north of AK, even though it vacillates with the look in the NA. The most recent run is a good example. Check out that Feb h5 look. Can't get much sweeter than that lol.

Seems its always about a week late as I recall, at least before it is available on TT. I am also curious to see if the new edition bears any resemblance to the previous run. I kind of like the way things look in the Pacific currently. ENSO is neutral but still leaning Nino with warmer SSTs further west. If that general look were to persist, it could work for us. PDO currently looks pretty good, ofc we have to see how it evolves over the next couple months.

Picked up some light stuff overnight. .04". That batch east of me in central DE looks like it may be pivoting this way. Not expecting much.

I know. Yes its all "for fun" at this point. The only indices worth seriously monitoring at this juncture IMO are ENSO, PDO, and probably QBO.

Exactly. Looking at a mean for the whole winter- and surface temps at that- makes it difficult to determine how the pattern sets up and evolves. Pretty useless IMO.