CAPE

Its typical weeklies- overall ambiguous, but mostly suggestive of a continuation of the pattern depicted by the 0z run it is initialized off of. So generally a continuation of a SE ridge, although it waxes and wanes. It's not a completely terrible look overall, but nothing stands out to be overly excited over.

Just for the hell of it, I took a peek at the latest edition of the EPS weeklies. As we all know by now, they are to be taken with a serious grain of salt. Looks anomalously warm for the whole run(outside of maybe 2 weeks that look normal) for the eastern third of the US. That takes us through the first week of Dec.

Just a warm up dude. Wait till December.

Lets see if that look holds, or gets pushed back or ends up with the trough reloading in the west. The "lamenting" is simply pointing out that the models have backed way off on the previously advertised 'favorable' pattern for the last week of this month. Not a big deal because it's not like it was gonna snow or anything. lol. It's preseason, and I am specifically interested in seeing if the -NAO actually does materialize in real time, or if it's just more false advertising on the LR guidance. Also screw those gradient patterns with a persistent SE ridge. If that becomes the mean pattern for winter, that's a winner for places further north the majority of the time. Depending on legit NA blocking is a fool's errand until proven otherwise at this point. You may do ok at times, but that's generally not a good pattern for coastal areas of the MA.

I'm good with whatever now. Just wanted to get some decent rain so I could stop perpetually watering my new grass. 3.7" for the month now. I'll take a quarter inch to freshen up my snowpack, er, I mean soil moisture.

That alone will be good to see, We have had pretty persistent NA blocking during the warm months, so if this look verifies, might be a good sign as we go forward. Now the lack of cooperation on the Pacific side is another story. Lots can change there as we move into early winter, but I don't want to see that big azz NE Pac ridge become a fixture in the location the ensembles currently have it as we head into Nov. That would be a problem for the lowlands of the MA more times than not even in mid winter. Not a fan of SE ridge and gradient patterns for my neck of the woods.

The trend is not your friend. or.. We have seen this many times before. It is preseason, and I honestly dgaf if it is 70 the last week of October lol.

I assume you got the crud cleaned out of your rain gauge.

I know there isn't necessarily a correlation, but after the persistent false advertisement by the guidance last winter in the LR (wrt epic patterns and esp blocking) I am interested to see what the reality is for this period in which all the major globals were depicting a pattern featuring significant HL blocking and anomalous cold for the east. Yes it seems there was some error on the Pacific side compared to what was projected by models several days ago, impacting the placement and strength of the NE Pac ridge.

1.2" here. Still some persistent light rain/drizzle but it won't add up to much more.

Actually it came back online lol. They are always having issues though. Sometimes it down for more than a week.

Lamar took control today. Looked very confident.

Some big plays today. Nice debut by Peters with the pick-6.

They heard me.

Ravens D...calling the Ravens D. you have a 10 point lead. Do your effing job.

Not that I can recall. Had plenty of beers from Bells, but not that one. Thus my jealousy lol.

2-3 days ago? Look at some of the panels posted in this thread a page or so back. EPS was never as bullish as the GEFS, but it had a cold look several runs ago.

Jealous.

If the 12z EPS is correct, the last week of October will feature EC/WA ridge with high temps of 60 to 70. The previously advertised cold snap has disintegrated.

Radar is out, but light rain falling here. Probably close to done. 1.10" for the event so far, and 3.6" for the month. Drought significantly dented.

LOL surprise. Dover radar is down again for the umteenth time. I think they need to replace the whole effing thing. KDOX is down due to a pedestal issue. Return to service is unknown at this time.

"Bonus snow" a couple months from now.

Your area should end up with close to 1.5".

I just made a post, and the thread showed that I made the most recent post, but its not showing up. Something is effed up.

Rain has been in the forecast here for a while, but a few days ago it looked like my area would be on the NW fringe with a quarter inch or less. Lets hope we see similar outcomes over the coming months with low pressure moving up from the south and HP to the north.