CAPE
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This h5 look is something I would rather see as we are approaching mid Dec, but it's on the table so what the hell, maybe some part of our region can score something given the highly anomalous nature of the advertised pattern.
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29 here this morning
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It needs to get steppin' to catch up to pretty much all other guidance, including the ICON. Or maybe it will score a coup with the suppressed event.
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@showmethesnow Nice write up. This period has been popping out as one with some potential. The usual caveats- its early, climo, etc. It would take a pretty anomalous airmass/set up for it to snow on the coast the second week of November, but it can happen, and the h5 looks we are seeing from the guidance lately is pretty anomalous looking lol.
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I don't think this is going to work out well for the FV3.
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He sure the eff did. Wtf?
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Guidance keeps spitting out looks like this, and it is real, things could get interesting early.
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Sure does. I went to watch the Steelers-Colts game for a bit, then came back and looked at the rest of the run. Interesting. Long way out.
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12z Euro has a moderate snow for N half of PA into SNE.
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Colors here definitely seem uninspired. Not much vibrancy. So many leaves were off the trees early due to stress. There is some decent color, but mostly I see bare trees or brown, and still some green in the case of some of the oaks.
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Slight differences in the LR on the GFS- the big blue ball of doom for the 13th is gone. The negative 15-20C departures are now +3 lol. No more Barney. Then we really torch after that.
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It tries to do a bit of a phase job- definitely more dig in the NS- but positive tilt/progressive and it's too little, too late.
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This is a touchy setup to be fair- fast flow, cold pressing, plus a SS vort in the SW that could try to partially phase with NS energy as it ejects. That looks less likely on recent runs, and ofc that's what folks in NE are rooting for. This is good practice for us, because odds are no matter how it plays out, it's probably mostly if not all rain for this region. Not sure I saw any flat wave scenarios on the Euro ens members that had much more than a r-s mix on the northern fringe
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Gonna be fun around here this winter with the "new" GFS.
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Need to cash in over the next 2 weeks with fantastic cooperation on the Pacific side bringing the cold. Sense of urgency!! Good to see persistence in the LR with the favorable PNA/EPO/WPO. If the pattern plays out as advertised, there probably will be some relaxation towards the end of the month, which would be a good thing.
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Completely different context. QBO monitors the periodic shift in the zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere. These winds periodically shift between westerlies and easterlies. The easterly phase is associated with a weakening SPV, and potentially the development of HL blocking.
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0z Euro is flat, suppressed, and weak. Doesn't come together the same way in the upper levels. Precip gets as far north as SE PA. Verbatim maybe a R-S mix on the northern fringe. There are a significant number of ens members with a storm. The ones with legit snow almost all have it to our north favoring NE. These members develop a stronger coastal low further north. Mean total snow for extreme N MD is 0.8" through next Sat morning. Anywhere south of that is 0.1-0.2. The 2" line in N PA.
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lol @ devastate What a tool.
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Meanwhile, Happy Hour GFS delivers snow for our area with its "day after tomorrow" killer vortex on the 13th.
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Well if the bar is a few flakes in the air...then yeah sure. Veterans day(or before) snowstorms don't happen too often, even up your way.
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Lol right. It will trend to NNE, where the Euro ens has it. That makes too much sense though, so maybe NC can get snow in Nov..they 'stole' our early Dec storm last year after all.
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Yes it was suppressed at 12z, but it's trying.. a little harder at 18z. I am not buying it though, not in early Nov.
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I figured you did lol.
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Perpetually- as in constantly; never ending.
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QBO 30mb equatorial zonal wind continues to head towards neutral- but its doing so slowly. Oct value was 7.27, down from 8.25 in Sept. Moving in the right direction at least.
