CAPE

Looking pretty impressive in SBY. Snowing at Rehoboth too.

Webcam from Salisbury U https://www.salisbury.edu/webcam/ drive the cam. watch it snow.

Wind blown light snow now. Looking at some of the traffic cams along Rt 13 in DE and its snowing. Remains to be seen if it comes down hard enough/lasts long enough for a coating. Possible over that way though. eta- snowing pretty hard in Denton.

Yep some flakes are flying here on the west side.

Nice death band over my yard per radar. A decent soaking at least.

I got first flakes with last weeks front. But yeah I would not be surprised if there was a light coating somewhere south or east of my yard. I am in Easton today, so maybe even here.

Remains to be seen if there is a flip to an awful pattern ofc. If you look at the teleconnections on the EPS weeklies, the AO/NAO trends quickly positive heading into Dec on the means- not extremely so- but does align with the general idea of what the climate/seasonal models are depicting for the HL. Big grain of salt with all of this. This winter I am basically sticking with the LR ensembles, as the EPS/CFS weeklies/seasonal models are super low skill and a general exercise in frustration to glean anything meaningful. I am content with continuously monitoring 7-10 days out.

Not a fan of the weeklies in general after last year. Only as good as the eps run they are based off of. Might be somewhat useful in cases where advertised ens LR pattern is consistent across many runs. Otherwise a given weeklies run can become invalid very quickly- like one ens cycle later lol.

Tony Pann and that absurd RPM model...just an embarrassing disaster. Poor, naive twitter weather dweebs.

Yup I commented on this when you posted the GEFS panel earlier. Let's hope it materializes, and it has some persistence moving into early winter where climo becomes more favorable. Yeah we all know Dec ends up being just another fall month more times than not, but we are due for a little early winter action. We got jobbed last Dec.

I'll take the rain.

That's just the nature of the beast on the coastal plain. We still get hammered usually in those classic setups.. other than something like 2016 when the poorly modeled dryslot from hell was the culprit. Even so, 'half a storm' produced 15" here.

@psuhoffman Having an established tendency for HL blocking is fine. That works. I am making a distinction between that and ridging that develops in the NAO space as a result of a deep NS vortex lobe rotating through. That might look impressive on guidance, but it lasts a day or 2 and quickly moves out- that becomes a thread the needle deal for it to work for us.

Yes it is, in winter. Extinct practically. Been what, 9-10 years now?

It's not black and white that way. Many times however, having a cold air mass firmly entrenched, with moisture moving into it , gives the best chances for widespread frozen for much of our region. We don't need super cold, just need the correct h5 setup. High pressure over the lakes, Low to the NE off the maritimes.

They all suck in general. We all know that. Ofc one might ask why anyone would bite on the LR ensembles depiction of a legit -NAO given recent history. I am skeptical until it happens in real time. Looks nice on paper. Lets see what happens. We have seen transient/bootleg stuff, but not a legit block.

Its dry. Barely a tenth of an inch for Nov. Could use a soaker.

EPS is very similar. Looks a bit better out west with a more defined ridge. If this ends up verifying, it will be interesting to see how quickly the NA look breaks down, given what the majority of longer range/seasonal models are depicting for Dec.

Yes they are cut from the same cloth. RPM!!! #faithintheflakes

Its freaking hyperbole to get people to tune in. Or in the case of Tony the tool Pann, to get people to follow his BS on Twitter.

Looks exactly like the op, as it should at this range.

Yeah I had channel 45 on watching the late game yesterday and they did their spot for the upcoming newscast and mentioned the arctic cold but said that might not be the biggest story- there is snow in the forecast! I was quickly reminded why I NEVER watch local news anymore.

Yeah for like 5 mins lol. We were discussing in the disco-obs thread. Has a bit more for SE areas of the region.

Euro has a coastal early next week. Brings us some chilly rain- looks like an inverted trough deal with the low tracking pretty far offshore.

On the grounds where I work in Easton. Decent.