CAPE

I don't believe this is correct. To the best of my knowledge each model run is discrete, based on a set of initial conditions and executed from that point, independent of any previous model cycles. Someone can correct me if i am wrong.

HH GFS will probably pull you in.

I would feel pretty good if I lived in NE PA, NNJ, into SNE right now. The GFS scenario is obv not impossible, but seems pretty unlikely to me. CMC looks more realistic.

Quite a bit further south with the coastal than previous runs on the mean. Might get in on a little deform action if the trends continue.

Did ya hear? Prince died. Bowie too. Lol jk. Yes, all of that has been discussed here, obviously.

It's a logical continuation from the 0z run which was already moving away from the +AO look. Not worth much more than that.

CMC looks interesting for the 5th. Phases a piece of Pac energy with NS energy and pops a low off the coast of NC. Nice shield of light to moderate snow for the area verbatim.

Who is doing that?

Yes. Of course he said that. He may be right, but he is nothing if not predictable.

The 0z GEFS also has a notable lack of blue up top at the end of its run, with hints of ridging building back into the NAO space.

EPS has been muting the +AO/NAO look in recent runs, and is now suggesting it will indeed be short lived. Showmethesnow highlighted this in his write up yesterday morning. And just like that, we have this advertised look 10 days into December.

Shhh. My trolling is very subtle.

I see your concerns and ofc we all know(I think) how important the AO is for above normal snow chances in the general DC area. Outside of having a +AO with sustained ridging in the EPO/WPO domains and a ton of luck, it's pretty difficult to overcome if it ends up a persistent feature during winter.

Yeah I still think the threat centered on Dec 2 is pretty low probability for our region, but not a total lost cause. I keep thinking the better shot at something tracking underneath and producing a frozen event is NS energy dropping in a few days later, not that that is very likely either.

I wanted to put a TY, a , and a , on this post, but ofc it wasn't possible.

It's the same result as the previous run. Where is the potential? Pretty cold. And pretty dry. And no snow. If that time frame is not going to produce, which at this point it appears it wont, who cares if h5 looks a bit "prettier" this run than last.

@showmethesnow Not bad. Nice EPO ridge building, and the NAO looks...neutral.

I know you know this, but ops at range tend to do this.

Anyone have any QBO updates? The new u30 data should be out in a week.

GEFS has the upper strat on fire heading towards the end of the first week of Dec, and if that verifies there should be some impacts down the road on the troposphere. So I guess what I am saying is...SWE will save us from a prolonged ++AO.

@showmethesnow Nice write up. I have always thought the Dec 2-3 period had limited potential, but I have warmed up to it a bit. It still looks like it ultimately ends up cold chasing rain with any secondary development occurring too late for the MA. Worth watching for sure. I have been a bit more intrigued with a possible clipper beyond that period, with the cold air in place and NS energy dropping in. Not that clippers are high probability events for this area in early Dec either lol. But hey, we anyway.

If you are referring to the end of the op run, that is a pretty interesting look, and the same period that is being discussed in the posts above. It has a primary low running well to our NW and manages to develop a coastal south of our latitude, but too little too late for our region. Verbatim it would be cold chasing rain. It appears to be a period to watch. If you are referring to the end of the Euro ensemble run- it looks "ok" but the reason it has that ambiguous look is there is a large spread on the individual members, in particular the location and magnitude of any cold air. There are quite a few that would have us torching with a SE ridge for example.

HH GFS says maybe there is a legit chance for the Dec 2nd storm. I have not been too interested in this(still not) for my yard, but for NW areas it might be worth watching. and esp for the highlands. With the h5 look it is possible this takes a more southerly track(coastal redevelopment) than currently depicted.

Verbatim to this point its not bad. I suppose we have been at this game long enough that when a pattern "degrades", we tend to roll it forward anticipating further degradation. I am not worried too much about the advertised +AO/NAO for the short term, as long as we have a -EPO. The latest ens runs are encouraging in that respect, esp the GEFS and GEPS. In the long run, not sure how that scenario works out for us should it become a mainstay. Hopefully things will reshuffle and we won't have 3 months of deep blue up top.